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Gold Derby

Tom O'Neil has the inside track on Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and all the award shows.

Category: JuddApatow

Gold Derby's official racetrack odds: Who will win the Emmys

September 19, 2008 | 10:50 am

OK, you've seen who all of the experts predict will win the Emmys (CLICK HERE), including me, but you haven't yet seen my careful breakdown of all contenders in each top category. Below: Gold Derby's racetrack odds. Please note: they're issued for entertainment purposes only and should not be used for gambling. Missing are the two reality races, but soon I'll add those odds too. Right now I haven't finished watching all of the episodes each nominee submitted to Emmy judges as samples of their best work.

Gold_derby_odds

My evaluations rely heavily on episode submissions. For example, note that I think "Saturday Night Live" is a real threat to "The Daily Show," which has won best variety series five years in a row. Granted, "SNL" hasn't won since 1993 and I still put "Daily Show" out front, but "SNL" submitted the same blockbuster episode that's likely to pay off with a win for Amy Poehler as best supporting actress: Tina Fey's return as host. Jon Stewart's episode is fantastic too — it's 20 minutes of ranting against the White House (of course) followed by a brief, fun chat with Judd Apatow.

But I don't think, like many of my peers, that Tina Fey will win best comedy actress. Three of her opponents submitted episodes that involved some element of split personality and that usually pays off with a victory. (Never again wonder how Lindsay Wagner won best drama actress for "The Bionic Woman" in 1977 — that's when she suddenly discovered her evil twin, remember?) In this year's derby, America Ferrera goes bonkers when sprayed with a poisoned perfume, Christina Applegate goes psycho when she hears the song "We've Got the Beat" on the radio and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, pumped up on testosterone, threatens to kick the "sorry, tanned, bleach-blonde, Botoxed" butts of rival school moms. The reason I give the best odds to Ferrera is because she stars in a one-hour program. The longest shows usually win — as Ferrera proved last year.

To see a full list of all episode submissions, CLICK HERE. Click through the subsequent pages of that forum to read the predix of our posters based upon what they think of those episodes. If you're curious to see what episodes were entered at past Emmy derbies, CLICK HERE. Remember: actors submit one sample episode; ditto for contenders for best variety and reality series. Nominees for best comedy and drama submit six that are paired off into three groupings that are randomly submitted to voters. Actors vote on actors, writers on writers, everybody gets to vote in the program categories. Roughly 250 to 300 voters volunteer to judge submissions in the races for best comedy and drama series. The typical acting category has about 50 to 75 judges.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Mad Men" - 5/4
"Damages" - 7/5
"Lost" - 8/1
"House" - 9/1
"Dexter" - 10/1
"Boston Legal" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"30 Rock" - 1/3
"The Office" - 8/5
"Entourage" - 20/1
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" - 30/1
"Two and a Half Men" - 40/1

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" - 2/1
James Spader, "Boston Legal" - 11/5
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - 13/5
Hugh Laurie, "House" - 8/1
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" - 8/1
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" - 35/1
(NOTE: I changed this prediction from James Spader to Bryan Cranston on Sept. 19.)

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close, "Damages" - 2/1
Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: S.V.U." - 3/1
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" - 7/2
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace" - 4/1
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" - 9/2

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" - Even
Steve Carell, "The Office" - 5/2
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" - 7/2
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" - 6/1
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" - 2/1
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" - 7/3
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine" - 5/2
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" - 3/1
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" - 50/1

BEST MINISERIES
"John Adams" - 1/2
"Cranford" - 7/5
"Tin Man" - 30/1
"The Andromeda Strain" - 40/1

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Expect 'Pineapple Express' to continue Judd Apatow's and Seth Rogen's lousy luck with top awards

August 9, 2008 |  2:41 pm

Despite loud huzzahs from film critics and an even louder cha-ching at the box office, it's likely, given their past derby track record, that Judd Apatow's and Seth Rogen's "Pineapple Express" will be laughed off by voters at the Oscars and Golden Globes, who also snubbed some of their reigning film comedies of this era, such as "Knocked Up," "Superbad" and "The 40-Year Old Virgin."

Enthusiastic reviews for "Pineapple Express" from the likes of Roger Ebert of the Chicago Sun Times and USA Today's Claudia Puig boosted the score of the stoner comedy to 64 at Meta Critic and 69 with the top tier of reviewers surveyed by Rotten Tomatoes. And while the box office fell Thursday to half of the Wednesday gross of more than $12 million, expectations are that the film will give "The Dark Knight" a run for the money this weekend. Even with this combination of critical and commercial success, frat-boy films like "Pineapple Express" are unlikely to figure in any awards races outside of those put on by the likes of MTV and Nickelodeon.

Pineapple_express_judd_apatow_seth_

Last year, "Pineapple Express" star and co-writer Rogen had the lead in "Knocked Up." That romantic comedy was both critically acclaimed (85 on Meta Critic, a jaw-dropping 97 with the top tier on Rotten Tomatoes) and hugely profitable (a $149-million domestic gross). Though Apatow   landed a WGA nod for original screenplay (he lost to Diablo Cody for "Juno"),  Rogen and his leading lady, the erstwhile Emmy-winning Katherine Heigl, had to make do with MTV Movie Awards nominations and the People's Choice award for favorite movie comedy. No Oscar notice and nothing at the Golden Globes, which have those separate categories just for laughers. "Superbad" — Rogen's other hit movie last year — raked in $121 million, scored well with critics (meriting 76 on Meta Critic and 86 with Rotten Tomatoes) but managed only five nods apiece with the MTV and Teen Choice kudos.

No doubt a similar kudos fate awaits "Pineapple Express,"  despite  Ebert saying, "It's a quality movie even if the material is unworthy of the treatment. As a result, yes, it's a druggie comedy that made me laugh." As Puig points out, "Producer Judd Apatow excels at this sort of raunchy but good-natured post-adolescent tale and has wisely allied himself with smart, quirky filmmakers. Director David Gordon Green, whose last film was the somber character study 'Snow Angels,' shows a definite talent for gut-busting comedy."

Apatow won an Emmy in 1993 as part of the writing staff of "The Ben Stiller Show," a short-lived sketch comedy show, and was part of the producing team for perennial Emmy nominee "The Larry Sanders Show." He earned his first WGA nod for a 1998 script for that sly satire on TV talkers and his second for scripting "The 40-Year Old Virgin" with star Steve Carell in 2005 — the pair lost to the team who created best-picture winner "Crash." In between, he created two cult TV favorites — "Freaks and Geeks" in 1999 and "Undeclared" in 2001.  "Freaks" featured Rogen in his acting debut. And it also showcased the up-and-coming James Franco. He would go on to win the 2002 telefilm acting Golden Globe for his riveting portrayal of "James Dean." Since then, Franco has made a string of films, mostly serious, mostly flops, save for the trio of "Spider-Man" movies, before showcasing his comedy chops in a change-of-pace role as the perpetual stoner in "Pineapple Express."

While Rogen and his writing partner Evan Goldberg wrote the "Pineapple Express" screenplay, with Apatow assisting on the story, the trio turned to an unlikely choice — indie filmmaker David Gordon Green — to handle helming duties for this comedy caper. Green's first film, "George Washington," a quiet little movie about children in a Southern town, won a prize from the Gotham crix and nods from the Indie Spirits for both screenplay and film in 2000. Green won a Sundance special jury prize for his second film, "All the Real Girls," in 2003. His recent efforts — "Undertow" and "Snow Angel" — followed in this vein, examining the lives of children in crisis, a world removed from this buddy comedy. While his first films got him noticed by critics and kudosfests, a hit like "Pineapple Express" is sure to get Green meetings with studio execs eager to make his next movie.

(Photo: Columbia Pictures)

 


Will the 'Pineapple Express' gang ever be up for Oscars?

August 9, 2008 |  2:29 pm

Of course, Oscar voters don't usually take comedy seriously, but sometimes they do, so it's no laughing matter that the comic wizards behind today's hottest gut-busters ("Pineapple Express," "Knocked Up," "Superbad," "The 40-Year-Old Virgin") are pooh-poohed by the academy. Makes you wonder: Will Judd Apatow and Seth Rogen ever get deserved notice?

After all, voters hailed comedy break-outs Diablo Cody ("Juno," winner) and Paul Hogan ("Crocodile Dundee," nominee) right away. Other funny films have received screenplay nominations like "Four Weddings and a Funeral" and "Big." Heck, three lighthearted cartoons even received bids: "The Incredibles," "Finding Nemo" and "Ratatouille."

Woody_allen_bananas

But when academy voters acknowledge comedy films with writing nominations, they usually prefer work by members of Hollywood's inner circle.  Nora Ephron had already proven herself as a dramatic writer (nommed for "Silkwood," 1983) when she nabbed nods for comedies "When Harry Met Sally" and "Sleepless in Seattle."

James L. Brooks already had an Emmy-proven TV track record with "The Mary Tyler Moore Show" when he segued into films, winning Oscars for writing, directing and producing best-picture champ "Terms of Endearment" (1983) and earning nominations for "Broadcast News" (1987) and "As Good as It Gets" (1997).

Yes, some famous comedy writers got saluted right away, but that's rare, looking back at Oscar history. For example, Billy Wilder started earning Oscar noms soon after he began penning Hollywood laffers, but that's because he teamed up with Charles Brackett, who was a key member of the town's clique. He was president of the Screen Writers' Guild when he and Wilder wrote their first screwball comedy, "Ninotchka," nominated for best screenplay of  1939.

If the "Pineapple Express" gang continues to prove their chops, it's possible they'll repeat the experience of Woody Allen, who was snubbed ridiculously during his early heyday: "What's Up, Pussycat" (1965), "What's Up, Tiger Lily?" (1966), "Take the Money and Run" (1969), "Bananas" (1971), "Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Sex But Were Afraid to Ask" (1972) and "Sleeper" (1973).

Finally, in 1977, the academy got the joke and "Annie Hall" swept five Oscars (best picture, director, screenplay and actress). But there was sad news for the king joker in one category: Woody lost best actor to a guy in a Neil Simon comedy (Richard Dreyfuss, "The Goodbye Girl").

Curiously, if Seth Rogen and Judd Apatow do get nominated this year, they'll probably compete against Woody Allen, who seems likely to reap his 15th screenplay nomination for "Vicky Cristina Barcelona."

(Photo: United Artists )


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