Prior to the release of "Duplicity," award watchers had to wonder if Julia Roberts suffered from the Oscar Curse. You know, win an Oscar, then disappear — at least from significance. (We're talking about you, Helen Hunt and Cuba Gooding Jr.) The Academy Award champ for "Erin Brockovich" hasn't made many movies of importance in recent years. "Charlie Wilson's War" and "The Closer" showed great early awards promise but fizzled at the Oscars, making us wonder if Julia Roberts was burning out as superstar.

"Duplicity" looks like a comeback of sorts for Julia Roberts. It's a box-office hit getting mixed to terrific reviews, making us wonder next: Is this just a throwaway thriller that won't matter much on the kudos scene (like the "Bourne" flicks, which "Duplicity" scribe Tony Gilroy penned) or one of the rare gems of that genre that succeed at the Oscars and Golden Globes (like "Michael Clayton," which Gilroy also wrote and directed)?

The answer seems to be somewhere in between, which probably means it may register with Golden Globe voters but probably not academy members. At least not in the top categories. It may have Oscar hope in the tech slots considering its cinematographer is Robert Elswit (Oscar champ, "There Will Be Blood") and music score by James Newton Howard (no wins but nine nominations, including "Michael Clayton").

Entertainment Weekly gives the movie a "B" grade but adds this lament: "'Duplicity' doesn't have depth."

The L.A. Times describes "Duplicity" as "sleek, dizzying entertainment," calling this screen tale of competing spies (Roberts and Clive Owen) toying with each other romantically "essentially 'Michael Clayton Lite.' "

The New York Times says, " 'Duplicity' is superior entertainment, the most elegantly pleasurable movie of its kind to come around in a very long time. ... It's a sharp, sexy comedy masquerading as a twisty tale of intrigue, and vice versa."

The Golden Globes do love Julia Roberts. Assuming "Duplicity" is entered in the comedy/musical categories, she has a good shot at a nomination, and the movie and Clive Owen may nab top bids too considering those award slots are usually less crowded than the drama categories.

Roberts has been nominated on six occasions at the Globes and won 50% of the time. Her three victories: "Erin Brockovich" (best drama actress, 2000), "Pretty Woman" (best comedy/musical actress, 1990) and "Steel Magnolias" (best supporting actress, 1989).

Angelina Jolie has not been nominated for an Academy Award since she won best supporting actress of 1999 for "Girl, Interrupted."

That's surprising considering Jolie's prominence in American pop culture, her Hollywood lineage as princess of a past Oscar king (Jon Voight, "Coming Home," 1978), popularity with other awards (three Golden Globes, two SAG Awards) and box-office success (movies grossing more than $2 billion worldwide).

Largely, the oversight is probably due to the choices she's made — preferring mostly popcorn pix — over the last decade. But last year Angelina Jolie had a good shot at a bid for her critically hailed turn as Mariane Pearl in "A Mighty Heart," which reaped her nominations from the Golden Globes, SAG, Indie Spirits and Critics Choice. When she failed to make the Oscar cut, award gurus wondered: Has Angelina Jolie's life in the tabloid headlines lost her the respect of those notorious snobs in the motion-picture academy? And, if so, can she ever win it back?

Now here comes Hollywood's most beloved cowboy and trusty Oscar magnet, Clint Eastwood, to the rescue as the director of "Changeling," which I saw Thursday at the New York Film Festival media screening.

Audience response: huzzahs galore. Clint has not only crafted another fine film that's going to garner widespread attention and admiration, but it's not an ensemble film like his last best-picture nominee, "Letters From Iwo Jima," or, to a lesser extent, his last best-pic winner, "Million Dollar Baby." It's all Angelina all the screen time.

You only care about this movie because you buy her performance as a heroic, real-life woman, circa 1930, who battled L.A. police when they locked her up in an insane asylum when she refused to accept a mysterious boy as her missing son. Four of the last five best-actress winners — and seven of the last 10 — portrayed real women. And it's a big, showy role at that, full of big crying scenes, booming declarations and righteous strutting. Oscar voters love all that.

One problem might be the fact that she doesn't bury her famous personality inside a vastly different character like Nicole Kidman did portraying Virginia Woolf in "The Hours" and Helen Mirren as Elizabeth II in "The Queen." But Julia Roberts didn't do that in "Erin Brockovich." That's a good parallel to make because, in both movies, the actresses are celebrated Hollywood beauties taking on defiant, crusading roles while looking and acting a lot like their lovely selves. Also: just like Jodie Foster in "The Silence of the Lambs" and, minus the crusading part, Cher in "Moonstruck." Obviously, Oscar voters like that sometimes.

Yes, that's true too of Angelina Jolie in "A Mighty Heart" — which had the plus of being based upon a real, heroic person as well — but Oscar voters like the movies they hail to be successful. "Heart" was a huge flop at the box office because studio execs foolishly decided to open it wide during summer, which was the wrong time of year for that kind of film, and a long time away on the calendar from derby season. Furthermore, it happened to be about a topic — war in the Mideast — which also came up short  of Oscar expectations for "In the Valley of Elah" and "Charlie Wilson's War." It's possible that Jolie was just one more casualty of war, bad timing and and dumb studio decisions.

However, that didn't stop her from being nominated for all of those other top Hollywood awards.

Now, though, she has a lucky Oscars charm: Clint Eastwood's movies have won chunks of academy gold for five actors — Gene Hackman ("Unforgiven"), Sean Penn and Tim Robbins ("Mystic River") and Hilary Swank and Morgan Freeman ("Million Dollar Baby") — and generated four more nominations.

A day after being snubbed by the SAG awards, this A List project is doing well with a good critics' score at Rotten Tomatoes (78 was based on 90 notices), but less so at Meta Critic, averaging 66 based upon 23 reviews.

Among those who enjoyed the movie most was Lou Lumenick of the New York Post who thought, "Oscar winners Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Mike Nichols, with the help of 'West Wing' scribe Aaron Sorkin, find considerable laughter in this allegedly fact-based mission improbable."

Writing for AP, Christy Lemire calls the film, "a crisp, biting satire that confidently mixes sex and politics, glides along so smartly and smoothly, it makes you wonder how it's possible that director Mike Nichols and writer Aaron Sorkin have never teamed up before." She says, "When you're thinking about a Scotch-guzzling, good ol' boy bachelor, Hanks may not immediately spring to mind, but he finds the sweetness within Wilson's legendary charisma. (Amusingly, one of the many women Wilson dated over the years was Nichols' current wife, Diane Sawyer.) He and a brash, breezy Roberts enjoy some appealing flirty exchanges, if not much sexual chemistry. But then Hoffman, a force of nature in every character role, storms in and blows away everyone in his path."

CLICK HERE to Read MORE!

Tonight in New York City was the first media screening of "Charlie Wilson's War." At the end, there was respectful applause. A journo pal who accompanied me as guest pretty much summed up what I thought, too: he liked it, but wasn't wowed, as he had hoped, given the pedigree of its creators.

That is "Charlie's" biggest problem. Expectations are stratosphere-high considering who's involved — past Oscar champs Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts and Philip Seymour Hoffman enacting a script by Aaron Sorkin (author of Emmy winner "The West Wing" and Oscar best-pic nominee "A Few Good Men") that's directed by Mike Nichols (Oscar champ for helming "The Graduate").

Now that we've seen it: Will it be nominated for best picture? Well . . . hmmm . . . perhaps . . . but it's certainly not going to win. The lead film critic of one of New York's top three newspapers doesn't think it'll get a best-pic bid. Told me he even expects it to flop at the box office — I wouldn't predict that outrght, but I could see that happening. Not that it's a bad film. It's quite good. Solid. Well made and well played. But it's yet another Iraq/Afghan war film in a year crowded with many and it doesn't do what "The Kite Runner" does: doesn't take the wind out of you, like great movies are supposed to do. That's why "Kite" probably has the best shot for a best-pic bid from among all of these war pix.

"Charlie Wilson's War" is everything you expect when you learn the premise from advance promos: Tom Hanks does a solid acting job as boozy playboy congressman who teams up with a hawkish Texas tycoon (Roberts) and an obnoxious slob from the C.I.A. (Hoffman) to help rebels oust the Russians from Afghanistan. There's much high-minded talk about freedom and fine scotch and there's much boozing and smoking and sex and eating throughout this pic. But at no point was I gripped and breathless, wondering what would happen next. And at no point did I look back at the last scene and think, "Marvelous!"

However, Aaron Sorkin's script snaps and crackles with enough bon mots that he might get nommed. Hoffman is a strong contender for supporting actor. He has the best shot among potential performance nominees, I think. It's not impossible for costars Julia Robert or Tom Hanks to nab a nom, but neither one of them will win.

Bottom line: "Charlie Wilson's War" is good, but it isn't the great movie people expect. How forgiving will Hollywood be?

Comingsoon.net premieres the "Charlie Wilson's War" poster. CLICK HERE Notice its emphasis on smart ironic humor over snooty Oscar pretentiousness. Good ploy.

"This year the age old “empty!” gripe is aimed at the Supporting Actress category," growls Nathaniel R at thefilmexperience.net. That's what most Oscar gurus are saying nowadays, but nay, nay, I say!

Still, it's fun to read Nathaniel's rant, particularly his breakdown of the five character types that usually triumph: Long-Suffering Wife (think Jennifer Connelly in "A Beautiful Mind" and Beatrice Straight in "Network"), Monstrous/ Martyr Mom (Brenda Fricker in "My Left Foot," Eileen Heckart in "Butterflies are Free"), The Mouth on Her (Dianne Wiest in "Bullets Over Broadway," Maggie Smith in "California Suite"), Little Miss Sunshine (Tatum O'Neal in "Paper Moon," Anna Paquin in "The Piano"), and More Than Just a Pretty Face (Kim Basinger in "L.A. Confidential," Angelina Jolie in "Girl, Interrupted").

I count more than a dozen candidates with a real shot for a nom (see below), many of them fitting the types cited above. By the way, on the pressing question of which "Atonement" gals get in, I don't buy the buzz that it's the middle one (Garai). I think we could see the young one (Ronan) and even the old one (Redgrave) even though the latter part is only a few minutes. They are the key transcending moments of the whole film.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS CONTENDERS
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Jennifer Connelly, "Reservation Road"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Olympia Dukakis, "Away from Her"
Romola Garai, "Atonement"
Jennifer Garner, "Juno"
Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"
Nicole Kidman, "The Golden Compass"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up"
Kelly McDonald, "No Country for Old Men"
Vanessa Redgrave, "Atonement"
Julia Roberts, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Emmanuelle Seigner, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Meryl Streep, "Lions for Lambs"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Here it is at last — the movie trailer to a flick some Oscarologists believe is the frontrunner to win best picture! CLICK HERE!

(Photo: Universal)

"Savages" is back to being a serious contender in the Oscar derby. Fox Searchlight just nixed its original late-December release date in order to roll it out earlier: now starting Nov. 30. Much better. That gives audiences more time to discover the subtle, sensitive performances of Oscar champ Philip Seymour Hoffman and Oscar-overdue Laura Linney as feuding siblings who must come together to put their poppa in a nursing home. Little movies like that one can't open late like they used to, back before the Oscars moved up a month. Blockbusters like "Charlie Wilson's War" starring Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts and "Sweeney Todd" with Johnny Depp can still trot onto the track at the last sec, but those slow, artsy tortoises like "Savages" need a head start.

On Oscar night, Reese Witherspoon emerged as more than just a best actress champ. To America's female filmgoers, she became the new Julia Roberts — a beauteous superstar simultaneously revered as a Hollywood goddess and beloved as just one of the girls.

Reese's brilliant Oscar speech cinched her new lead role. It was a miraculous, last-minute rally. Reese's thank-yous at the SAG Awards and the Golden Globes had been boring bombs. When Reese's name was announced as Oscar winner, many journalists backstage winced, fearful that the girl from Tennessee would give them more dull homespun banalities not worth quoting.

Instead, when she opened her mouth at the podium, a superstar was born.

Reese gave another Oscar-worthy performance thanking her parents for their support: "It didn't matter if I was just making my bed or making a movie. They never hesitated to say how proud they were of me and that means so very much to a child." Her verbal twang gave the words southern comfort.

But her next words buzzed with dramatic intensity when Reese recalled how June Carter Cash used to say, perkily, "I'm just trying to matter!" — then Reese added humbly: "I know what she means, you know. I'm just trying to matter and live a good life and make work that means something to somebody and you have all made me feel that I might have accomplished that tonight."

Bingo. Reese said just the right poignant things, winning over the hearts of TV viewers while moving on up to the Oscars pantheon. There she will reign as a special Oscar champ, not just another Charlize Theron or Helen Hunt. No, no. Reese did what Julia and Nicole Kidman did. She made female film fans bond with her in an extraordinary way. She now represents them. They identify with her just like Britney Spears, Jessica Simpson and J.Lo on the pop culture scene — with several key differences: Reese is no bimbo, she's smart and she can act.

Photos: Julia Roberts and Reese Witherspoon are superstars who come across as every girl's best friend.
(Universal Pictures / Twentieth Century Fox)