On opening day, "Inception" is already proving to be a hit with moviegoers and film critics. Are Oscar voters next?

"Inception" director Christopher Nolan got a mixed reception from academy members with "The Dark Knight" two derbies ago. It was nominated for eight Oscars and won two — including best supporting actor for Heath Ledger — but it failed to make the list for best picture. Outrage over that snub was one of the reasons the academy chose to expand the number of best picture nominees to 10.

"Inception" scores 76 at Metacritic. The L.A. Times hails the film: "A tremendously exciting science-fiction thriller that's as disturbing as it sounds. This is a popular entertainment with a knockout punch so intense and unnerving it'll have you worrying if it's safe to close your eyes at night."

USA Today likes "Inception" too but doesn't gush so much: "The film is easier to admire than to fully grasp or be moved by it. Still, it's worth surrendering to the dream."

The New York Times merely shrugs it off: "Though there is a lot to see in 'Inception,' there is nothing that counts as genuine vision. Mr. Nolan’s idea of the mind is too literal, too logical, too rule-bound to allow the full measure of madness — the risk of real confusion, of delirium, of ineffable ambiguity — that this subject requires."

Photo: Warner Bros.

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

Now that Kate Winslet is no longer poor Kate Winslet, five-time loser of the Academy Award, it's time to decide who deserves our pity next.

Nathaniel Rogers got this new pity party started over at Film Experience, combining male and female performers and deciding that we should all be boo-hoo-hoo-ing over Michelle Pfeiffer. Not a bad choice. She's lost three times and may be nominated next year for "Chéri," director Stephen Frears' adaptation of the romance novel penned by Colette. But there are so many snubbed stars in the Hollywood firmament, frankly, we'd like to break up this Oscars discussion into two parts based upon gender.

Let's start with the guys and have you pick the star you think we should all be rooting for.

Of course, Peter O'Toole is most overdue in the literal sense, being the Oscars' biggest loser (eight defeats). But at this point, let's be honest, his hopes look dim. Besides, he's already got an honorary Oscar.

Poor Albert Finney doesn't have one of those and he's lost five times in the competitive races, but, truth be told, he also looks like a lost cause. He should have been nominated for "Big Fish" in 2003 but was snubbed. That tells us something, probably that the Oscar  voters don't appreciate how often he snubs them back, usually not bothering to attend the ceremony when he gets into the race. That started with his first big nom as best actor in 1963. The night "Tom Jones" won best picture at the Oscars, its star preferred to be in Hawaii partying with some foxy gals, so press reports tattled.

There are many others too, but our poll can only accommodate 10 names, so I had to be selective. Obvious choices are highly regarded, red-hot actors such as Johnny Depp, Leonardo DiCaprio, Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt. Johnny Depp could be back in the running soon with Michael Mann's "Public Enemies," Brad Pitt with Quentin Tarantino's "Inglourious Basterds" and Leo DiCaprio with Martin Scorsese's "Shutter Island."

Stars like Donald Sutherland aren't here because they've never been nominated. Some chaps like Bill Murray and Edward Norton aren't listed because, well, they have PR problems within the industry and winning would be difficult for them, though not impossible. Others, including Liam Neeson and Dennis Hopper, aren't here because of my whim, but they were carefully considered. Really! Feel free to vote for whomever you like by clicking on the "Comments" link below. And please join in the heated discussion on this topic on our message boards.

RELATED POSTS

Heath Ledger's Oscar goes to Michelle Williams, not the Ledger clan

Quiz: What Oscar champ also won the Nobel Prize?

Truly rotten: 'Slumdog Millionaire' ranked below 'Unforgiven' on Oscars list

Did 'Casablanca' deserve to win best picture at the Oscars?

Quiz: Who was the youngest winner of best actress at the Oscars?

Photos: the Weinstein Co., Universal

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

This year 18 of the 19 SAG acting nominees are repeating at the Oscars. Since double SAG nominee Kate Winslet was bumped up by the Oscars from supporting to lead for "The Reader," she was denied a lead nom for "Revolutionary Road." However, that film's Michael Shannon managed to knock SAG nominee Dev Patel of "Slumdog Millionaire" out of the supporting race.

Last year 15 of the 20 SAG nominees went on to compete at the Oscars. Two years ago, it was a staggering 19 of the 20 with the one variation coming from the same film — "The Departed" — as SAG nominee Leonardo DiCaprio was replaced at Oscar time by Mark Wahlberg.

Four of this year's five SAG-nominated ensembles appear in Oscar-nominated best pictures with SAG contender "Doubt" replaced by "The Reader." Last year only one SAG ensemble nominee — "No Country for Old Men" — made it into the best-picture race, although that film won both awards. Two years ago it was three of five, with "Little Miss Sunshine" taking the SAG prize, but losing the top Oscar to "The Departed."

All five of the lead actress nominees are competing for both awards, though Kate Winslet contends at the Oscars for "The Reader" rather than "Revolutionary Road." Last year, it was four of five as the only SAG nominee not needing a babysitter come Oscar night was Angelina Jolie ("A Mighty Heart") whose spot went to "The Savages" star Laura Linney.

The supporting actress race matches up four to five as the promotion of Kate Winslet for "The Reader" left room at the Oscars for the addition of Marisa Tomei ("The Wrestler"). Last year, this race was also four for five with SAG nominee Catherine Keener ("Into the Wild") replaced by Saoirse Ronan of "Atonement."

Lead actor matched up perfectly. Last year, it went three for five with SAG nominees and relative newcomers Emile Hirsch ("Into the Wild") and Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") replaced by Hollywood vets Johnny Depp ("Sweeney Todd") and Tommy Lee Jones ("In the Valley of Elah").

And, as mentioned, the supporting race is four for five with Shannon replacing Patel. Last year SAG nominee Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country") was replaced by Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War").

The DGA picks for best director matched up with four of the five academy choices as DGA nominee Christopher Nolan ("The Dark Knight") was edged out at the Oscars by Stephen Daldry ("The Reader"). Daldry has only helmed three films and has Oscar nods for all of them, the previous two being "Billy Elliot" (2000) and "The Hours" (2002). Last year, DGA nominee Sean Penn ("Into the Wild") lost his Oscar slot to Jason Reitman who helmed best pic nominee "Juno."

The PGA nominees for best picture also went four for five with the Oscar contenders as "The Dark Knight" was bumped by "The Reader." Last year, it was also four for five with PGA nominee "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" replaced by "Atonement."

The WGA nods for original screenplay were shut out save for Dustin Lance Black and his script for "Milk." Last year they lined up with the Oscar nominees except for "Knocked Up" which was knocked out of the competition by the team who whipped up "Ratatouille." However, the adapted screenplay race went four for five with only the WGA nominees for "The Dark Knight" bumped by David Hare, who adapted "The Reader." Last year Sean Penn, who wowed the WGA with his adaptation of "Into the Wild," was snubbed by the Oscars as was the scripter for "Zodiac." They were replaced by "Atonement" adapter Christopher Hampton and first time writer-director Sarah Polley.

The ASC choices for best cinematography lined up with the Oscar nominees except for "Revolutionary Road" shooter Roger Deakins, who was replaced by Tom Stern for "Changeling." Last year the ASC went five for five.

The ACE picks for best editing match those of the Oscars. Last year ACE nominee "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" was replaced by "Michael Clayton."

Uh-oh! Kate Winslet's vote-splitting has officially begun! The Satellite Awards just nominated Kate Winslet in the best-actress race for "The Reader" instead of "Revolutionary Road," thus ignoring her campaign to put the "Reader" role in supporting. However, both films are up for best drama picture, but there are several, big curious omissions in that race: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "Doubt" and "The Dark Knight." The latter snub is especially bizarre considering Christopher Nolan is up for best director.

The other contenders for best drama pic: "Slumdog Millionaire," "Frost/Nixon," "Milk" and — surprise — "Frozen River." The pix up for best comedy/musical: "Happy-Go-Lucky," "Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist," "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," "Tropic Thunder," "In Bruges," "Choke." Notable snubs: "Burn After Reading," "Mamma Mia!" and "High School Musical 3," which all could rally at the Golden Globes.

None of the helmers of those comedies got a bid for best director. In addition to Nolan, the nominees for that race: Thomas McCarthy ("The Visitor"), Ron Howard ("Frost/Nixon"), Gus Van Sant ("Milk"), Christopher Nolan ("The Dark Knight"), Danny Boyle ("Slumdog Millionaire") and Stephen Daldry ("The Reader"). The snub of Sam Mendes ("Revolutionary Road") is surprising.

There are lots of other peculiarities in this year's list. "Australia" has nine nominations, but none for best picture. Penelope Cruz is considered to be a front-runner at the Oscars in the supporting race, but she isn't nominated by the Satellites for "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," which is up for best comedy. She did score a bid for "Elegy," though. "Benjamin Button" is based upon a short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald, but it's nommed in the category for original screenplays.

The Satellites are bestowed by a rebel group of foreign journos who broke off from the Golden Globes back in the early 1990s. Often their tastes reflect the views of their foreign colleagues, who in turn mirror the outcome of the Oscars. But often the views of the Satellites can also seem like they're beamed in from the planet Neptune.

Last year they nominated only two of Oscar's five best-picture contenders: "Juno" and "No Country for Old Men." At least they managed to include the winner. Last year's Oscar champ as best actor, Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood"), wasn't nominated, but the film was probably absent from all races because voters didn't see the late-year release in time. (The same is probably true this year for "Gran Torino," which is snubbed.) In fact, the Satellites forecast only two of Oscar's best-actor finalists: Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises") and Tommy Lee Jones ("In the Valley of Elah"). However, they did tap all best-actress contenders.

How do the Satellites compare to the Globes? Just as often as they agree, they seem to disagree — drastically. Last year the Satellites for best picture went to "No Country for Old Men" and "Juno." Globers preferred "Atonement" and "Sweeney Todd." In 2007, the two awards agreed again on best comedy/musical ("Dreamgirls"), but the Globes chose "Babel" for best picture while the Satellites opted for "The Departed." The previous year both kudos picked "Brokeback Mountain" and "Walk the Line." In 2004, they split: Both chose "Sideways" as best comedy/musical pic, but the Satellites opted for "Hotel Rwanda" as best drama and the Globes went for "The Aviator."

Below is a partial list of nominees. See full list at the Satellites' website. The awards will be bestoed on Dec. 14 at the Century City InterContinental Hotel.

BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
"The Reader "
"Slumdog Millionaire "
"Revolutionary Road "
"Frost/Nixon "
"Milk "
"Frozen River "

BEST PICTURE, COMEDY/MUSICAL
"Happy-Go-Lucky "
"Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist "
"Vicky Cristina Barcelona "
"Tropic Thunder "
"In Bruges "
"Choke "

Pundits are constantly updating their Oscars predix at the Envelope's Buzzmeter, so remember to keep checking back often. (Bookmark THIS LINK for quick access in the future.)

Below is a sampling of newest predix from top gurus, who include Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Peter Howell (Toronto Star), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Lou Lumenick (New York Post), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily.com), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com) and moi.

Notice how close the battle is over best picture. While four of these seven seers pick "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," two of us naysayers back "Slumdog Millionaire" and one opts for "Milk." All four "Button" backers put "Slumdog Millionaire" in second place. I — a "Slumdog" supporter — list "Button" as the runner-up."

Views are split over best actor: three votes for Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon"), two for Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler"), one for Sean Penn ("Milk") and one for Leo DiCaprio ("Revolutionary Road").

Kate Winslet ("Revolutionary Road") zooms ahead of previous front-runner Meryl Streep ("Doubt") with four votes to one. Streep even falls behind Kristin Scott Thomas ("I've Loved You So Long"), who has two votes.

Photo: Miramax

• Today many Oscar voters got the DVDs of "Slumdog Millionaire" and "Rachel Getting Married." Yesterday they got "Last Chance Harvey" and "Traitor." To see what screeners they received before that, CLICK HERE.

• Probably thanks to his long-term chumminess with producer Harvey Weinstein, Roger Friedman of Fox News is first out with a review of "The Reader." It has "the earmarks of a best picture nominee," he says, calling it "a movie about an intimate relationship set against the backdrop of an Important Issue.

"Kate Winslet is a revelation in "The Reader,'" he adds, reflecting his similar view of her screen turn in "Revolutionary Road," which also "joins the small group of potential best picture nominees. Certainly, for direction it’s a shoo-in. Kate and Leo are superb. Yes, it's Oscar caliber work. Winslet we expected. But Leo DiCaprio is a revelation." READ MORE

• At the Feinberg Files, check out Scott Feinberg's report on the bash thrown in Manhattan last night for "Milk" where he chatted with Lauren Bacall. READ MORE and listen his podcast.

• Several film critics have finally been shown "Gran Torino"! The Envelope's Pete Hammond reports that "consensus is it's a slam-dunk acting nomination for Clint Eastwood." Pete also serves up audience reax to other top Oscar contenders like "Revolutionary Road" at his Notes on a Season blog.

• Christina Aguilera has been added to the star lineup appearing on the Grammy nominations TV special airing 9-10 p.m. ET/PT Dec. 3 on CBS. Also performing: Taylor Swift, Mariah Carey, Celine Dion, Foo Fighters, B.B. King and John Mayer. The award ceremony will be held on Feb. 8.

• The Grammys open their new museum to the public on Dec. 6. It's located in L.A. LIVE, directly across from the Staples Center where the award ceremony takes place. READ MORE

• At his EW blog, Dave Karger weighs the Oscar prospects of "Seven Pounds."

• On Dec. 9, the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences will induct the following honorees into its TV Hall of Fame: Bea Arthur, Daniel B. Burke and Thomas Murphy, Larry Gelbart, Merv Griffin and Sherwood Schwartz. The ceremony will be held at the Beverly Hilton Hotel, emceed by "Desperate Housewives" star James Denton.

• The National Book Awards were bestowed yesterday to Annette Gordon-Reed for "The Hemingses of Monticello: An American Family" (nonfiction) and Peter Matthiessen for "Snow Country" (fiction). The choices sparked some controversy, as noted by the New York Times and New York Mag's Vulture blog. Vulture also reports (hilariously) on the after-party, which moved this year — in a desperate ploy to be perceived as more hip — to Socialista. The ploy was so desperate that the room was packed with downtown trendoids who had no idea where they were or why they were there — and probably haven't read a book without "Harry Potter" in the title since leaving high school.

While the two trade reviews of "Revolutionary Road" praise the performances -- especially those of leads Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, as well as supporting player Michael Shannon -- overall reaction to the picture itself depends on the critics' opinions of the source material, a 1961 novel by Richard Yates. (SPOILER ALERT)

As Kirk Honeycutt of the Hollywood Reporter was not a fan of the book, it is not surprising he thinks so little of the film. "Justin Haythe's script and Sam Mendes' direction hew closely to Richard Yates' 1961 novel. Which means it fails to escape the novelist's misogyny and contempt for anything suburban. The phrase seized upon in both works is 'hopeless emptiness.' It's apt."

Writing for Variety, Todd McCarthy also draws a comparison with the novel and finds, "With one notable exception toward the end, Haythe and Mendes capture the primal emotional and thematic points of the book as they try to find a cinematic way to express the subtext of Yates' prose, which most distinguishes itself through the precise expressions of minute changes in emotion, attitude and thought -- what might he say, what should she say, what does he feel, what's she really thinking, how did he and she react at the same moment? Even when the dramatic temperature is cranked up to high, the picture's underpinnings seem only partly present, to the point where one suspects that what it's reaching for dramatically might be all but unattainable -- perhaps approachable only by Pinter at his peak."

However, McCarthy found the film, "constantly engrossing, as it successfully engages the Wheelers' yearning to rescue themselves from their decorous, socially acceptable oblivion, just as it clearly defines how the 'trap' is stronger than they are. The rows, tender moments and downtime in between are fully inhabited and powerfully charged by DiCaprio and Winslet. For his part, DiCaprio often achieves the kind of double register the film as a whole less consistently captures, as he indicates Frank's thought process in the split second before he decides what to say." And he thought, "Winslet's perf is less surprising, perhaps, if only because she has shown tremendous range throughout her career. April is a difficult role in that her mood changes sometimes seem inexplicable, but the thesp makes them all seem genuine, which resonates with Frank's occasional hints that she's possibly in need of psychiatric help. Winslet's starkly etched April is steely, strong and brittle, capable of great highs and lows as well as massive uncertainty."

Such a ringing endorsement certainly underscores why the film's stars have made it into the top 5 on the latest edition of the Buzzmeter. And Honeycutt's dismissal of the film as "essentially, a repeat for Mendes of 'American Beauty,' right down to the formal camera compositions, repetitive musical chords and shocking death at the end" could explain why neither the helmer nor the picture itself is generating the same buzz more than a month before the Christmas opening.

For our newest round of Oscars predix, we made things tougher on our prophets. Instead of asking them merely to give us five films they believe will be nominated in the top three races, we asked them to rank each entry 1 (most likely to win) to 5. The result: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "Slumdog Millionaire" each got two votes for best pic; "The Dark Knight" reaped one. Leading the acting races with three votes each: Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon") and Meryl Streep ("Doubt").

Joining me in making daredevil predix: Thelma Adams (Us Weekly), Edward Douglas (ComingSoon.net), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly) and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

To read my full analysis of this category race and pipe in with your vote, CLICK HERE!

(Paramount, Fox Searchlight)

What a difference a day and a new gang of Oscar gurus make! Proof of how wide open the derby is can be tracked in the vast differences between our newest pundit predix (below) and the rundown we published yesterday (CLICK HERE). Six seers participated in both juries. Our new group: Patrick Day (LATimes.com), Kevin Lewin (World Entertainment News Network), Michael Musto (Village Voice), T.L. Stanley (Gold Rush, Hollywood Reporter), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com).

Richard Jenkins ("The Visitor") proves to be a dramatic dark horse, zooming from far beyond the pack of best-actor rivals (no votes yesterday) to leading it, being tied with Sean Penn ("Milk") and Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler") for reaping unanimous support now.

Another notable leap ahead: Sally Hawkins ("Happy-Go-Lucky") from 3 votes to 5. Darting onto the derby track after no support yesterday: Melissa Leo ("Frozen River") and Will Smith ("Seven Pounds").

Notable fallbacks: Clint Eastwood ("Gran Torino") dropped from 5 votes to 2 and Leonardo DiCaprio ("Revolutionary Road") from 4 to 1. Falling out completely: Nicole Kidman ("Australia") and Benicio Del Toro ("Che").

"Gran Torino" and "The Reader" have dropped out of the best picture running, and Kate Beckinsale ("Nothing But the Truth") and Richard Jenkins ("The Visitor") have vanished from the acting races, according to the latest batch of our pundits' predix. Piping in are Scott Bowles (USA Today), Erik Davis (Cinematical), Greg Ellwood (MSN Movies), Scott Feinberg (The Feinberg Files, The Envelope), Nathaniel Rogers (TheFilmExperience) and me.

Only two flicks get unanimous support for best picture bids: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "Slumdog Millionaire." Not only has backing for "The Dark Knight" grown significantly in the last two weeks, but hugely: Five of our six prognosticators now foresee a top nom. Support for "Milk" has evaporated a bit (formerly, it got backing from a majority of seers), and there seems to be genuine doubt about "Doubt" (only one vote), but those flicks may rally in our next predix roundup when we tap additional gurus. Also noteworthy: Finally, Cate Blanchett ("Benjamin Button") is getting notice in the actress lineup. She has excellent odds to be nominated. She not only stars in the best picture front-runner, but she ages dramatically on screen (like many past winners, including last year's champ Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose"). I want to add Cate to my list too, but I just can't (for now) cruelly boot out one of my current fave five. Hey, I try to remain loyal to my gals ... as long as I can in fickle Hollywood, anyway.

(Warner Bros.)

-- The first screening of "Revolutionary Road" generates a thumbs-up review from Variety's Anne Thompson, who shares the e-mail she received as spy report at her blog Thompson on Hollywood: " wow! very powerful two-hander for Leo and Kate . . . It's powerful and also beautifully written and filmed. Sam Mendes doing suburban angst again, but this time in the 1950s. I daresay it may be a modern classic. also, the screenplay race this year is unusually light on adaptations, so this being an adaptation of the Richard Yates novel, I'd look for a nomination."

-- Heath Ledger is among those competing for an international award while "The Black Balloon" and "Unfinished Sky" lead noms at Australian film kudos.  Sydney Morning Herald

-- He'll never win an Oscar now. Furthermore, past nominee Joaquin Phoenix ("Walk the Line") may have just as hard a time winning a Grammy.  New York Vulture

-- George Lucas is set to be feted at 13th annual Art Directors Guild award fest on Valentine's Day. Variety

-- Tony Awards committee membership is announced for management (oversee kudo cast) and administration (determine eligibility). Playbill

-- Lauren Graham ("Gilmore Girls") to make her Broadway debut in an upcoming "Guys and Dolls" revival. TV Guide

--'W.' screenwriter Stanley Weiser tells RopeOfSilicon: "What I was trying to get across in the movie is a story of a guy who is an abject failure, tries to redeem himself . . . and yet he is hapless and clueless as a leader."

-- Simon Cowell gets special kudos, "Doctor Who" makes it four in a row and TV presenters Ant & Dec are British viewers' choice for eighth consecutive year at the National Television Awards. BBC News

-- Russell Brand, this year's MTV VMA host, is yanked off BBC Radio for a lewd prank phone call to "Fawlty Towers" star Andrew Sachs (Manuel). Daily Mail

-- "Mamma Mia!" edges out "Harry Potter" for the No. 2 spot on the all-time British box office chart and is only 2 million pounds behind "Titanic." Daily Telegraph

Just heard from producer Scott Rudin's camp that I confused two of his films when reporting an update on "Revolutionary Road." here at Gold Derby earlier today. That movie is "finished" in terms of production, I'm now told.

Rudin was referring to "Doubt" when he told me about the last-minute scramble to edit, lay down music tracks and add snow scenes to the film's ending while getting it ready for last week's first industry screening and its debut this upcoming Thursday at AFI Fest. Much of the work got done, but there's still tinkering to be done on the film, so it's being shown in its "unfinished" form at AFI Fest. Sorry for creating further confusion!

(Paramount Vantage)