In the Oscars' race for best supporting actress, Mo'Nique is widely presumed to be the front-runner.

However, the star of "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" portrays a monstrous ghetto mama so vile that voters may hold the role against the actress. In that case, this contest is wide open, and several of her rivals have a good shot at an upset, including Julianne Moore ("A Single Man") and "Up in the Air" stars Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick. I think a lot of my fellow Oscarologists are foolishly underestimating Farmiga. Most think that her young, bubbly costar, Anna Kendrick, has a better shot at getting nominated.  But beware: Award voters, mostly male and middle-aged (and older), often get excited by mature women who portray the seductress. Think Virginia Madsen ("Sideways," 2004), who was nominated at the Oscars and Globes, won the Indie Spirit and swept the critics awards — New York, Los Angeles, National Society of Film Critics and Critics' Choice.

At the Golden Globes, the Weinstein Co. is pushing Mélanie Laurent up to lead, but that may not hold at the Oscars, so I'm keeping her on this list of supporting players. Remember, academy voters can place a contender in whatever category they wish.

Below, bullets mark the five gals I believe will reap nominations. Also, check out how I handicap these races: best actor, lead actress, supporting actor and best picture.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
FRONT-RUNNERS
Patricia Clarkson, "Whatever Works"
• Penelope Cruz, "Nine"
Judi Dench, "Nine"
• Vera Farmiga, "Up in the Air"
• Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air"
Mélanie Laurent, "Inglourious Basterds"
• Mo'Nique, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Samantha Morton, "The Messenger"
• Julianne Moore, "A Single Man"
Susan Sarandon, "The Lovely Bones"
Rachel Weisz, "The Lovely Bones"

POSSIBLE
Ellen Burstyn, "The Loss of a Teardrop Diamond"
Mariah Carey, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Marion Cotillard, "Public Enemies"
Diane Kruger, "Inglourious Basterds"
Jane Lynch, "Julie & Julia"
Paula Patton, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Rosamund Pike, "An Education"
Natalie Portman, "Brothers"
Betty White, "The Proposal"

LONG SHOTS
Kate del Castillo, "Julia"
Rachel Evan Wood, "Whatever Works"
Charlize Theron, "The Road"
Emma Thompson, "An Education"

Photos, from left: Mo'Nique in "Precious." Credit: Lionsgate. George Clooney and Vera Farmiga in "Up in the Air." Credit: Paramount 

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• Roger Friedman warns of trouble ahead for Chris Martin and the rest of Coldplay: "Martin and his bandmates may be looking over their shoulders this Grammy weekend. The reason is that a lawyer representing musician Joe Satriani is sending teams of process servers all over town to hand them a plagiarism lawsuit ... Satriani is claiming that Coldplay lifted his 2004 instrumental, "I Just Wanna Fly," for the basic melody of "Viva la Vida." Coldplay disputes this and has issued a rebuke on its website. But that hasn’t stopped Satriani or his attorney Howard King of King Paterno et al. The firm claims that Coldplay has dodged being served, and that the Grammys are the easiest forum at which to strike while the iron is hot. King says, 'We have warned their British lawyers that we have hired a fleet of process servers lined up to dog the band everywhere they go this weekend in the hopes of serving them.'" FOX NEWS

• The Grammys are auctioning off more than 100 items at EBay to raise money for its MusicCares Foundation. Included among the googies: a private DJ lesson from DJ AM; meet Rihanna on the set of her next video or photo shoot; phone call from Aretha Franklin; guitars autographed by AC/DC, B.B. King, John Mayer, Jonas Brothers, Christina Aguilera, Mariah Carey, Celine Dion and Taylor Swift. EBAY AUCTIONS

• Bad omen for the front-runners at the BAFTA Awards coming up? "Slumdog Millionaire" lost best picture to "Hunger" and Kate Winslet ("The Reader") just lost best actress to Tilda Swinton ("Julia") at the London Evening Standard Awards. WASHINGTON POST

• "Milk" screenwriter Dustin Lance Black will receive the WGA West's Paul Selvin Award at the guild's awardsfest Saturday. The kudo is given to a writer whose work embodies the spirit of constitutional rights and civil liberties. Said WGA West prexy Patric Verrone, "At a time when history seems to be made daily, Lance Black's script reminds us that all it takes is a single spark to light the fuse of an entire movement." WGAW

• Kris Tapley provides invaluable guidance to the Oscar nominated animated and live action shorts like "La Maison en Petits Cubes" (left, nominated for best animated short): "I always like seeing what the world’s filmmakers have cooked up in these categories, so I took an hour or so earlier in the week to have a look at the films in contention. I have to say, it’s a more impressive collective than we’ve seen in recent years, especially on the live action side of things, where interestingly enough, all the entrants hail from overseas." IN CONTENTION

• Brad Brevet wonders if "Cheri" will be a return to Oscar form for Michelle Pfeiffer: "The new film from Stephen Frears ('The Queen') ... stars Kathy Bates as Madame Peloux, a famed courtesan in 1920s France, who sends the spoiled Cheri (Rupert Friend) to her courtesan pal Lea de Lonval (Michelle Pfeiffer) for an adult education, but their six-year affair comes to a painful end when he’s forced to marry a wealthy young woman. Christopher Hampton, who was nominated for an Oscar for his screen adaptation of 'Atonement' (2007) and won for his 'Dangerous Liaisons' (1988) script, adapted the script from the novel by the late Sidonie Gabrielle Colette. Based purely on the talent involved this film is gaining attention considering Frears, Hampton and Pfeiffer were all involved in 'Dangerous Liaisons' and all three have proved to have the talent to bring a great film to the big screen." ROPE OF SILICON

• Lou Lumenick revisits the career of three-time Oscar nominee Natalie Wood with the release of the DVD versions of "Splendor in the Grass" (nomination No. 2 — Wood lost to Sophia Loren, "Two Women" ) and "Inside Daisy Clover." NEW YORK POST

• Marshall Herskovitz and Edward Zwick, the producing team behind the Emmy-winning "thirtysomething" and "My So-Called Life," are prepping a new drama pilot for CBS. The project, called "A Marriage," will be an examination of a working modern-day marriage. TV SQUAD

• Playbill has a quick Q&A with two-time Oscar winner Jane Fonda, who is returning to the rialto after a 46-year absence in Moisés Kaufman's latest play, "33 Variations," which begins performances Feb. 9. In it, she plays Katherine Brandt, who is trying to solve a centuries-old mystery about the great classical composer, Beethoven. PLAYBILL

Photos: NARAS, Robot Communications, Warner Bros.

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Could Mariah Carey go from Razzie winner to serious awards contender?

Looks like past Razzie fave Mariah Carey won't be served up a new bowl of berries for her supporting performance in "Push," which is being screened at the Sundance Film Festival. Carey is getting great reviews!

"Push" is a gritty story of urban unrest told through the eyes of a troubled teenager. The film is based upon the bestselling novel by Sapphire and is directed by "Monster's Ball" producer Lee Daniels. Said Variety, "Among the many delightful surprises in the film is Mariah Carey, who is pitch-perfect as a welfare counselor and serves as this demi-tragedy's Greek chorus. It's possible that many viewers won't recognize her until the final credits, but like so many things about 'Push,' the performance is disarming."

Back in 2001, Mariah Carey starred in "Glitter," a semi-autobiographical pic that was slammed by critics and shunned by audiences, taking in a little more than $4 million at the box office. That low point in her career was capped off with a win at the Razzies as worst actress. Although her 2002 follow-up film "Wisegirls" failed to impress, it was not greeted with the same howls of derision as "Glitter."

Since then, Carey has broken with two record companies. She later topped the charts in 2005 with "The Emancipation of Mimi." That album won her three Grammy awards — best female R&B vocal performance, best R&B song and best R&B album. Her 2007 follow-up, "E=MC2" propelled her to the No. 2 position behind the Beatles for most No. 1 singles (18 versus 21), and she is now second to Elvis Presley for most weeks atop the singles charts (79 weeks versus 80).

Photo: Getty Images

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While the Oscars are referred to as the Super Bowl of entertainment, that football one has a surprising (and long-running) connection to the awardsfest. This year the NFL has enlisted Jennifer Hudson, the best supporting actress of 2006, to sing the national anthem at the Feb. 1 festivities in Tampa, Fla. This will be the first public appearance for the "Dreamgirls" star since her mother Darnell Donerson, brother Jason Hudson, and nephew Julian King were murdered in their Chicago home Oct. 28.

Expect Hudson's performance to equal the emotional one delivered by Whitney Houston back in 1991 when the Super Bowl was played (also in Tampa) against the backdrop of the start of the first Gulf War. Houston's performance of "The Star Spangled Banner" was released as a single and reached the top 20 on Billboard. The following year, Houston made her movie debut in "The Bodyguard" but did not sing the two Oscar-nominated songs — "I Have Nothing" and "Run to You" — at the 1993 Oscars, leaving the warbling to Natalie Cole. Houston did appear on the 1999 show to duet on the Oscar-winning power ballad "When You Believe" from "The Prince of Egypt" with Mariah Carey. However, the following year, the troubled singer was bounced from the Oscar lineup just hours before the show and replaced by Faith Hill for a medley of songs.

Another Oscar winner, Bruce Springsteen, will be performing during the half-time show this year. Springsteen won his Oscar in 1993 for the song "Streets of Philadelphia" from the film "Philadelphia." He was nominated two years later for the title song of "Dead Man Walking" but lost to "Colors of the Wind" from "Pocahontas." Springsteen could well be a nominee again this year for his Golden Globe-winning title track for "The Wrestler."

Hudson will not be the first Oscar winner to sing at the Super Bowl. Back in 1999, Cher — the 1987 best actress winner for "Moonstruck" — performed the national anthem. The following year, Phil Collins appeared in the half-time show just weeks before winning an Oscar for the song "You'll Be In My Heart" from "Tarzan." In 2005, Paul McCartney performed in the half-time show. He, along with the other three Beatles — George Harrison, John Lennon and Ringo Starr — won the 1970 original song score Oscar for "Let It Be." And Prince, the 1984 song score winner for "Purple Rain," performed in the 2007 half-time show.

OSCAR CHAMP CHER AT THE SUPER BOWL

L.A. Times Photo by Al Selb

I asked our forums moderator Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch to give us his reax to Grammy bids. He's so befuddled by what is — and what's not — on the list of nominees that he can think of no other explanation: It's a conspiracy! In fact, six of them! Yeah! Read Darrin's report below, then check out more dish on this sinister topic in our forums — CLICK HERE!

The Grammys had a lot of snubs (as usual), but this year something is definitely off. Check out these snubs:

1.) No Eagles in album of the year. People speculate that voters felt there was only room for one veteran act in the category (the Robert Plant/Alison Krauss duets album). Also, Plant has been severely under-rewarded by Grammy voters (he only has two wins, and Led Zeppelin never won a Grammy). So people think the Eagles were snubbed in order to ensure a Robert Plant win.

2.) Not only was Alicia Keys snubbed in the general field, but she also wasn't even nominated for best R&B album or best R&B song. "As I Am" was the bestselling album of the eligibility period, according to Billboard, and got great reviews. Plus, Alicia is an obvious Grammy favorite. Lots of bloggers think Alicia was secretly punished for appearing at the AMAs, and they think voters eliminated her to give other artists a chance to win. Her snub in R&B blbum is especially shocking considering every album nominated is a commercial flop and even a Boyz II Men covers album was nominated (so voters were clearly fishing to fill out the category).

3.) Leona Lewis was snubbed in best new artist despite scoring nominations for record of the year, pop female vocal and pop album. This is absolutely unprecedented. Posters are speculating an "American Idol"-type backlash has set in and voters didn't want to nominate a manufactured pop star in the best new artist category. Plus, Clive Davis has stepped down, and many speculate he didn't have as much pull as he did in prior years with NARAS members.

4.) Sugarland's "Love on the Inside" was one of the most acclaimed albums of the year and sold like hotcakes, but Sugarland didn't receive any general field nominations and weren't even nodded for best country album. Posters are saying the country voting bloc didn't support Sugarland because they think its music is "too pop" to be considered country. For me, the best country album snub is especially shocking. They were the front-runners to win.

Our two music kudos gurus are split over who'll win best female video at the MTV Video Music Awards on Sunday night. David "Guru" Schnelwar ranks Mariah Carey in top place. Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch ranks Mariah Carey last, opting instead of Rihanna as likely champ. David has Rihanna in second place.

BEST FEMALE VIDEO: DOUBLED'S RANKING
1) Rihanna, "Take a Bow"
2) Britney Spears, "Piece of Me"
3) Katy Perry, "I Kissed a Girl"
4) Jordin Sparks, "No Air"
5) Mariah Carey, "Touch My Body"

You can immediately eliminate Mariah. Her buzz has faded and her follow-up singles have underperformed on the charts; she won't win. "American Idol" alums don't have a great track record at the VMAs, and Jordin Sparks' momentum didn't continue after the massive success of "No Air," so I think she's out, too.

Katy Perry is a dark horse. "I Kissed a Girl" is the No. 1 song of the summer; it spent seven consecutive weeks on top of the Hot 100 chart and is still in the Top 5. If Perry's follow-up single catches heat during voting, then I think she will win. If not, voters will reward Rihanna for her massive year. She's on her third No. 1 single from her album.

Britney could get this for sentimental value, but VMA voters have no problem splitting up their top prizes. Last year Rihanna won video of the year while Fergie nabbed this category.

BEST FEMALE VIDEO: GURU'S RANKING
1) Mariah Carey, "Touch My Body"
2) Rihanna, "Take a Bow"
3) Britney Spears, "Piece of Me"
4) Katy Perry, "I Kissed a Girl"
5) Jordin Sparks, "No Air"

This is a tight race. Mariah Carey and Britney Spears have never won a VMA.  Both artists are overdue. I think Mariah Carey is the front-runner.  Comical music videos usually win. Unless MTV decides to award Britney to make up for her career-suicide performance last year just for the headlines.

Rihanna had the most music videos released this year.  She may upset.  Fergie had the most music videos released last year and won this category last year.

I think Katy Perry is more likely to win best new artist in a video instead of this. I don't see Jordin Sparks winning.

Photos: (Island/Def Jam)

To see the answer, click on the "Continue Reading" link below the photos.

Those are the bold forecasts of our resident sages and the moderators of our Grammy forum, David "Guru" Schnelwar and Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch. See and compare their lists below. Also, check out their views on the race for record of the year - CLICK HERE.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR - GURU'S PREDIX
(Front-runners)
"Viva la Vida" -- Coldplay
"Long Road Out of Eden" -- The Eagles
"As I Am -- Alicia Keys
"Raising Sand" -- Robert Plant & Alison Krauss

(Possibles)
"Rockferry" -- Duffy
"Lay It Down" - -Al Green
"Tha Carter III" -- Lil Wayne
"Hard Candy" -- Madonna
"In Rainbows" -- Radiohead

(Long shots)
"Modern Guilt" -- Beck
"Exclusive" -- Chris Brown
"E=MC2" -- Mariah Carey
"Detours" -- Sheryl Crow
"Home Before Dark" -- Neil Diamond
"American Gangster" -- Jay-Z
"Sleeping Through The Static" -- Jack Johnson
"Two Men With the Blues" -- Willie Nelson & Wynton Marsalis
"Accelerate" - R.E.M.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR - DOUBLED'S PREDIX
(Front-runners)
"As I Am," Alicia Keys
"Long Road Out of Eden," The Eagles
"Raising Sand," Alison Krauss & Robert Plant
"Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends," Coldplay

(Possibles)
"Detours," Sheryl Crow
"Hard Candy," Madonna
"Tha Carter III," Lil Wayne

(Long shots)
"In Rainbows," Radiohead
"Lay It Down," Al Green
"Rockferry," Duffy

Even though Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch and I have been pals for seven years here at Gold Derby where he's one of our esteemed forum moderators and Grammy pundits, I didn't meet him in person until this past weekend. Well, some things are worth waiting for — he's a great guy — and I finally had the treat to catch up with him after he recently scooted from St. Louis to the City of Angels to pursue his dream to work in The Biz.

No surprise, I guess: Turns out Darrin's just as gutsy in person as he's been online. Even though there are three more months left in the Grammy eligibility period, he's already convinced that the Eagles will win best album for "Long Road Out of Eden." In fact, he believes it's the automatic winner considering how veterans have swept the category 7 of the past 10 years. And even though the Eagles face such tough competish from Coldplay, Alicia Keys, Sheryl Crow, Madonna and other contemp hotties.

I might agree with him later this year, but on Sunday I had to remind Darrin how poorly groups usually do when facing off against solo artists like Sheryl Crow (who, surprisingly, beat Boys II Men for best record in 1995) or groups that are heavily identified with one person like Coldplay (Chris Martin), Santana (Carlos) or, in the best new artist category, Maroon 5 (Adam Levine). Bottom line: Grammys are all about hugs — industry insiders embracing one of their own — and it's always easier to wrap your arms around just one person than many. It's one of the quirks of voting on showbiz awards. Look how solo TV hosts like Ellen DeGeneres always beat multiple hosts like "The View" gals at the Daytime Emmys. Just happened again last Friday night.

Before he and I hooked up he e-mailed me his analysis of the top Grammy race. Words below are Darrin's:

The Grammy eligibility period is quickly winding down. Commercially, it's been a disappointing year for mainstream releases, but we still have some strong contenders for album of the year. I suspect the Eagles (Long Road Out of Eden), Sheryl Crow ("Detours"), Alicia Keys ("As I Am"), Madonna ("Hard Candy"), Mariah Carey (E=MC2), R.E.M. ("Accelerate"), and the Robert Plant/Allison Krauss duet album ("Raising Sand") are probably the strongest contenders for the nomination at this point. We still have a few months left in the eligibility period, but, strangely, there aren't many more blockbuster releases between now and September. (Clive Davis and Co. are sneaking Jennifer Hudson's debut album in on the last day of eligibility.)

Anyway, the new Coldplay album ("Viva La Vida Or Death and All His Friends") is getting terrific reviews and the fans are loving it. And it only helps that the single is already in the Top 5 on the pop charts (a first for a Coldplay single) and early sales are huge. It really looks like Coldplay may have Grammy's Album of the Year winner. However, this decade Grammy voters have been notorious for shunning "the best" albums when it comes to picking a winner. No matter what Grammy voters almost always opt for a veteran act when it comes to selecting the Album of the Year winner. It's a disgrace that Herbie Hancock won Album of the Year earlier this year. That's going to go down as one of Grammy's most shameful wins. How could Grammy voters give Amy Winehouse five Grammys (all in notable categories) yet shun her in Album? And Kanye West won four Grammys that night so it would've made more sense if he were the alternative to coked out Amy Winehouse.

KEEP READING - CLICK HERE!

Memo to the music industry: In case you're wondering what to get Mariah Carey and Nick Cannon for a wedding present, here's a good idea. How about a Grammy Award for their music video "Bye Bye"? On one hand that's appropriate because they met while shooting it, and, on the other hand, it's something that the bride really, really wants.

Mariah Carey has 33 Grammy nominations (second among female artists only to Aretha Franklin), but none was for best video, which is considered to be one of the hippest categories. Nick has never been nominated in any race.

Mariah Carey has won five Grammys. Her first two were for best new artist and best pop vocal, female for her self-titled debut album in 1990. Then, though her follow-up albums all went platinum, there was an awards drought until her smash hit "The Emancipation of Mimi."

Though Carey went into the 2005 Grammys with eight nominations, she left with only three. While she won best contemporary R&B album, the singer-songwriter lost the big prizes of album, record and song of the year to U2 and Green Day. Perhaps with her follow-up, the critically acclaimed, chart-topping "E=MC2," she has come up with the right formula to win over Grammy voters.

(Photo: Wire Image/ NARAS)

"I think Mariah Carey is going to have great reviews for 'Tennessee,' " says our forums poster jonatansol, who seems to be a rosey fan. "Do you think she will get the nom for best supporting actress" at the Oscars?

He's referring to the film that opens Saturday night at the Tribeca Film Festival (CLICK HERE) in which she portrays an abused woman on the run. Sometimes Oscar voters do take pop singers seriously as actors, giving them noms (Diana Ross in "Lady Sings the Blues"), even wins (Frank Sinatra in "From Here to Eternity," Cher in "Moonstruck"), but Mariah has always struck pop-culture observers as more worthy of Razzies. In fact, she "won" worst actress for "Glitter" in 2001. In that same film her breasts were nominated for worst screen couple. They "lost" to Tom Greene and "any animal he abuses" in "Freddie Got Fingered."

Anyway, CLICK HERE to snoop through that forum thread and read some of the hilarious replies to jonatansol's question.

In terms of showbiz awards, it's probably more realistic to have Grammy hope for Mariah's new CD, "E=MC2," which sold 463,000 copies during its first week out. It contains her 18th No. 1 single, which now ranks her just behind the Beatles record (20).

She has won five Grammys, including best new artist of 1990, but she has still not won best album or record. She's lost three times in each race. Album: "The Emancipation of Mimi," 2006; "Daydream," 1996; "Mariah Carey," 1991. Record: "We Belong Together," 2006; "One Sweet Day," 1996; "Vision of Love," 1991.

It happened again! All night long at a Grammycast where Mariah Carey was expected to win album, record or song of the year, the biggest-selling female singer in music history suffered a humiliating shut-out across the board. What must her millions of poor dear "lambs" think now as they bah! bah! bah! and boo! hoo! hoo! at home? Well, at least this time the pop diva reaped some consolation: those three Grammy statuettes she won during the nontelevised ceremony. It's the first time she's received any Grammy love since being chosen best new artist of 1991.