OSCAR PREDICTIONS

• Gold Derby's gutsy, 100% accurate Oscars predictions

• Gold Derby odds on the top Oscars races

• Experts predict who'll win the Oscars

• Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke in a real heavyweight bout

• Can Meryl Streep beat Kate Winslet at the Oscars?

• Rookie pundit needs a new Oscars crystal ball

OSCARS TELECAST

• Will Rob Pattinson sing with Mary Poppins at the Oscars?

• Will Miley Cyrus, Beyonce, Zac Efron and Rob Pattinson wow Oscars' viewers?

• 'Twilight' star Robert Pattinson will be an Oscars presenter

• Some Oscars TV ads still for sale — only $1.4 million a pop!

• Oscars are the Emmys' biggest winner

OSCARS HOST: HUGH JACKMAN

• Sneak Peek: See Hugh Jackman warming up his Oscar act

• Can Hugh Jackman continue the Oscars' love affair with Emmys?

OSCAR NOMINEES

• Heath Ledger's ultimate joke on the Oscars?

• Heath Ledger's family plans to take his Oscar, which should go to Matilda if he wins!

• Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie could be latest couple cursed at the Oscars

• Will Brad Pitt lose best actor due to Oscars' Slap the Stud Syndrome?

• Will the Babe Factor help Kate Winslet in a close Oscars contest with Meryl Streep?

• Watch out, Mickey Rourke: Indie Spirit is Oscar's consolation prize

• Penelope Cruz: 'Whatever happens, I will probably have a few beers and I don't drink!'

• No 'Doubt' Viola Davis could win at Oscars for portraying a long-suffering wife

OSCAR RACES

• 'Slumdog Millionaire' isn't doomed at the Oscars just because its actors got snubbed

• The Oscars' best picture usually = big picture

• Could 'Curious Case of Benjamin Button' suffer the worst shut-out in Oscars history?

• No, there is no bias against foreigners at the Oscars

• Here's why there will be an Oscars upset for best foreign film

OSCAR FLASHBACK

• Did 'Ben-Hur' deserve to win best picture at the Oscars?

OSCAR QUIZZES

• Quiz: Which actor had the most Oscar bids in a row?

• Quiz: Which Bette Davis flick suffered the worst Oscars' shut-out?

• Quiz: Who turned down Jodie Foster's Oscar-winning role in 'Lambs'?

• Quiz: Who won an Oscar on her birthday?

• Quiz: Which Oscar-winning role was not gay?

• Quiz: How much does an Oscar cost to make?

• Quiz: Which movies won for writing, directing and acting, but failed to win best picture?

Illustration by Ty Wilson

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After flirting with the Oscars for much of its 24-year history, this year's edition of the Independent Spirit Awards struck out on its own somewhat. For the first time in six years, none of the best picture contenders at the Spirits went on to reap an equivalent Oscar bid, though the ultimate winner — "The Wrestler" — was in the mix. By snubbing "Milk" as a best-picture nominee in favor of fare like "Ballast" and "Wendy and Lucy" that had no chance of making it into the final five at the Oscars, the Spirits regained a degree of their one-time independence.

However, while the acting nominees — as selected by screening committees — also had their fair share of unlikely Oscar hopefuls, the winners as chosen by the members of Film Independent are either Oscar contenders — Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler"), Melissa Leo ( "Frozen River") and Penelope Cruz ("Vicky Christina Barcelona") — were also Oscar nominees or were from a film with eight Oscar nominations, albeit not one for him — James Franco ("Milk"). But don't make too much room on your mantle just yet, Mickey. The Spirits have taken on the status of consolation prize for Oscar acting contenders. As the saying goes, "Win on Saturday, lose on Sunday." That's not always true. Recent Spirit champs like Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote") and Charlize Theron ("Monster") repeated on a day later, but those victories tend to be the exception, not the rule.

"Milk" scripter Dustin Lance Black won the first screenplay prize at the Spirits while Woody Allen won the regular screenplay award for "Vicky Christina Barcelona." That Black is a contender at the Oscars for his original script for "Milk" is no surprise but that Allen was not Oscar nominated after 14 previous bids, including two wins, was quite the jaw-dropper. Oscar frontrunner "Man on Wire" won best documentary. And Oscar nominee "The Class" won foreign film, but I do not believe it will repeat tomorrow night at the Oscars. Read the Associated Press report on the winners here.

Oscar winning scripter Charlie Kaufman won the first feature prize for helming "Synecdoche, New York" while Thomas McCarthy took the directing award for "The Visitor." And Maryse Alberti won cinematography for "The Wrestler."

The Spirits are handed out in a very spirited daytime party held in a tent on the Santa Monica beach. As Variety once reported: "Many celebrities mused that they could think of no other Hollywood awards show where the guests had to wait in line for portable toilets while facing hordes of autograph-seeking fans." The wine flows almost as freely as the profanities. Just how will AMC edit Mickey Rourke's F-bomb laden acceptance speech for the rebroadcast tonight? The free-wheeling nature of the event has led to many other memorable moments over the years. One that sticks with me still is when director Kevin Smith won for the screenplay of "Chasing Amy" in 1997 and said in his acceptance speech: "This makes up for every chick who ever told me I had a small d**k."

The Spirits declared itself to be just that with the first best film back in 1985 — Martin Scorsese's "After Hours," described by Variety as "a nightmarish black comedy [in which] the cinema of paranoia and persecution reaches an apogee." But the award went mainstream the following year and opted for "Platoon," which went on to win best picture at the Oscars as well. From then on, most of the Spirits' picks for best pic would be players to one degree or another at the Oscars.

Check out The Envelope's Buzzmeter, where our shrewd Oscar seers are posting updated predix. Below is a random sampling with a few surprises. While Sean Penn ("Milk") leads among all of our pundits, Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler") gets the backing of most of these leading Oscarologists for best actor.

Prognosticators featured in our chart below: Thelma Adams (Us Weekly), Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Mark Olsen (The Envelope), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily.com), Kris Tapley (InContention.com), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com).

• Tomorrow (Feb. 13) is the deadline to enter material to compete for the One show Awards, which reward excellence in advertising and design. In addition to Gold, Silver and Bronze Pencil Awards, this year the first-ever Green Pencil Award will hail the best nonprofit/public service advertising that promotes the environment. With an all-star panel of notable industry professionals, The One Show will take place on May 6 in New York at Jazz at Lincoln Center. A separate ceremony for interactive work will be held on May 8 at Terminal 5 in New York. Deadline for that competition is Feb. 27. ONE SHOW.

• Mickey Rourke told a British tabloid that he's rooting for Sean Penn to beat him at the Oscars: "Sean Penn is a good friend of mine. When I was down and out, he got hold of me and told me exactly what to do and not to do. I owe him so much that I hope he wins the award." LONDON DAILY EXPRESS

• Many soap fans wonder: Why did "One Life to Live" diva Robin Strasser remove herself from consideration for a Daytime Emmy this year? "I don’t think the current Emmy system encourages team effort," she roars to Nelson Branco of TV Guide Canada. "I remember a moment in time when the dynamic of a cast got to change for at least two months and we nominated the best on our show. NATAS really lost me when they allowed judging to occur at home." THE SUDS REPORT

• Don't expect to see Meryl Streep in flashy designer garb at the Oscars. When she recently won best actress at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, she admitted to the audience, "I didn't even buy a dress!" as she showed off her plain black pants suit ensemble. Now she believes that Spartan fashion is her lucky charm. "I'll never buy a dress again!" she told World Entertainment News Network. WENN

• Luckily, these Oscars bloggers aren't having their smackdown on a high wire! David Carr of the New York Times takes on Kris Tapley of InContention.com for not liking "Man on Wire." CARPETBAGGER

• Getting ready for Stephen Frears' "Cheri," starring Michelle Pfeiffer, to enter the next Oscars derby, Nathaniel Rogers has been catching up on his Colette books, which he is, literally, swooning over. FILM EXPERIENCE

Photos: One Show, Robert Gauthier/ L.A. Times

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By winning best picture at the BAFTA Awards, "Slumdog Millionaire" just became the second film, after "American Beauty," to sweep the top prizes from all of these awards: Golden Globes, National Board of Review, Critics Choice and the four guilds — producers, directors, writers and actors (ensemble award at SAG).

Last year "No Country for Old Men" won all of those prizes except BAFTA and the Golden Globe — "Atonement" claimed both of those best-picture prizes. In 2005, "Brokeback Mountain" nearly pulled off such a sweep, but National Board of Review went for "Good Night, and Good Luck," and "Crash" won best ensemble acting at SAG.

This impressive derby trot by "Slumdog Millionaire" does not come close to matching the greatest sweep ever in the history of showbiz awards — "Schindler's List" (1993). Back then, the SAG ensemble award and Critics Choice Awards didn't exist, but it swept up all best-picture prizes from every other major Hollywood awards group. It even pulled off a rare sweep of the critics trifecta: New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. and National Society of Film Critics. All three disagreed this year. The Angelenos picked "Wall-E," New Yorkers got "Milk" and the national society danced off with "Waltz With Bashir." Curiously, all three critics' awards went their own way in 1999 when "American Beauty" paved the way for "Slumdog Millionaire's" romp at other top awards this year.

Ever since BAFTA moved up its awards calendar in 2000 so that its ceremony would precede the Oscar show — and therefore, presumably, influence it — the two awards agreed only twice on best picture: "Gladiator" (2000) and "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" (2003).

However, they've overlapped much more frequently in the acting races: 18 of the past 32 performance awards. Most impressive is that they agreed completely over the past two years. What about now?

Three of the four stars hailed as the Oscar front-runners by most award gurus came through at BAFTA: Kate Winslet ("The Reader"), Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight") and Penélope Cruz ("Vicky Cristina Barcelona").

However, Sean Penn ("Milk") lost to Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler"). Both have won top awards during the derby so far: Penn bagged SAG, Rourke claimed the Golden Globe. Both have momentum and mega-buzz. By boosting "The Wrestler" star, this BAFTA victory turns the Oscar best-actor slugfest into a real heavyweight bout.

Beware: Over the past eight years, BAFTA has correctly predicted Oscar's best-actor champs only four times — but they were the past four champs. Four out of five nominees agree in both categories this year. Dev Patel ("Slumdog Millionaire") bumped Oscar nominee Richard Jenkins ("The Visitor") at BAFTA.

"Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke aren't the slam-dunk front-runners to win the BAFTA," warns our forums moderator Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch. "Frank Langella and Dev Patel are definitely in this race, too."

However, HollywoodStar is among our forum posters who sticks out his neck to say that Penn will, indeed, win best actor at this Sunday's BAFTA Awards. He's probably right. Penn's the Oscar front-runner and BAFTA Awards have predicted all four of the Oscars' acting races correctly for the past two years.

But NovicMode pipes in: "Rourke and Winslet just won best actor and best actress, respectively, at the London Critics Awards. 'The Wrestler' won best picture. Could this be foreshadowing of the BAFTAs?" Follow more of the hubbub, suspense, chatter and dishing in the Gold Derby forums.

The BAFTA Awards will be bestowed Sunday, Feb. 8, at the Royal Opera House in London. They can be viewed on U.S. television on BBC America at 8 p.m. EST/ 5 p.m. PST. Here's a full list of nominees.

RELATED POSTS:

BAFTA Awards boost Oscar hopes of 'Benjamin Button' and 'Slumdog Millionaire'

BAFTA Awards predict more than half of Oscars' acting champs

'Slumdog Millionaire' fans should root for it not to win best British picture at BAFTA

Compare BAFTA nominations to the finalists on BAFTA's long list

Flashback: Gold Derby coverage of BAFTA wins last year

Photo: Fox Searchlight

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Over the last week or so you may have noticed the parade of Oscar nominees like Mickey Rourke, Taraji P. Henson and stars of best picture nominee "Slumdog Millionaire" Dev Patel and Freida Pinto on the morning chat programs like "Today," "CBS Early Show" and "Good Morning America." Amazing coincidence? Ha! Well, I've tried valiantly to compile a list of just some of them on similar shows for, well, your consideration. I haven't yet even tallied up their interviews in magazines like Sean Penn's current visit with Rolling Stone.

LATE SHOW WITH DAVID LETTERMAN
2/3 - Richard Jenkins

TONIGHT SHOW WITH JAY LENO
1/30 - Dev Patel
2/2 - Kate Winslet, Danny Boyle,
2/4 - Penelope Cruz
2/6 - Frank Langella
2/10 - Viola Davis
2/11- Amy Adams

LATE NIGHT WITH CONAN O'BRIEN
2/5- Taraji P. Henson

LAST CALL WITH CARSON DALY
2/2 - Dev Patel
2/6 - Danny Boyle

CRAIG FERGUSON
1/28 - Freida Pinto

DAILY SHOW WITH JON STEWART
2/3 - Dev Patel

JIMMY KIMMEL LIVE
2/9 - Mickey Rourke
2/10 - Josh Brolin

ABC NIGHTLINE
2/2 - Meryl Streep
2/3 - Angelina Jolie
2/4 - Penelope Cruz

THE VIEW
2/3 - Dev Patel
2/4 - Richard Jenkins
2/11 - Kate Winslet

LIVE WITH REGIS AND KELLY
2/13 - Anne Hathaway

THE ELLEN DEGENERES SHOW
2/3 - Josh Brolin
2/4 - Penelope Cruz
2/5 - Taraji P. Henson

TAVIS SMILEY (PBS)
2/4 - Sean Penn
2/9 - Melissa Leo

MSNBC is reporting that Oscars hopeful Mickey Rourke, star of "The Wrestler," is "about to get in the ring in real life." Could that hurt his bout in the Oscar ring by making him look ridiculous? It's one thing to perform those wild stunts while taking on a dramatic role in a Darren Aronofsky film. It's something else to take gladiatorial wrestling as seriously as its lughead fans.

Appearing on the red carpet at last night's SAG Awards, Mickey Rourke told Access Hollywood, "The boys from the WWE called me and asked me to do it. I said, 'I want to.' I’m talking with [WWE legend] Rowdy Roddy Piper about it." As per the report, Rourke would be participating in WWE’s Wrestlemania 25 in Houston on April 5 and he already has his opponent in mind: "Chris Jericho, you better get in shape, because I’m coming after your ...”"

For Mickey Rourke, "The nicest thing has been the whole wrestling community embracing us. The movie was about their world." While that may well be, he would do well to remember the misstep taken by Eddie Murphy two years ago. That bad boy of Hollywood was riding high with wins for his tour de force performance in "Dreamgirls," but the February release of "Norbit" made Oscar voters wonder about his true talent. They ended up giving the supporting-actor trophy to veteran Alan Arkin ("Little Miss Sunshine"). And all Murphy was left with was a record three acting Razzie Awards for "Norbit."

Photo: Fox Searchlight

In the 14-year history of the Screen Actors Guild Awards, 25 stars have taken home an Oscar after winning both the Actor (that's the actual name of SAG's statuette) and the Golden Globe while only five have failed to do so. With wins tonight, a trio of performers — Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler"), Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight" ) and Kate Winslet ("The Reader") — could solidify their leads at the Oscars.

Comeback kid Mickey Rourke, who took the lead actor (drama) Golden Globe for his performance in "The Wrestler," is favored to win tonight by only seven of our pundits. Another 10 have their money on Sean Penn to take home his first SAG Actor for "Milk."

However, the late Heath Ledger, who has won almost all the precursor awards, including the Golden Globe, for his supporting performance in "The Dark Knight," is expected to repeat again tonight by all 18 of our experts. Colin Farrell — surprise Globe winner for lead actor (musical/comedy) for his "In Bruges" performance — is not in competition at either of these award fests.

Likewise on the female front, Golden Globe-winner Sally Hawkins (for actress in musical/comedy) is not in the running anymore for her role in "Happy-Go-Lucky." And the bump up of Kate Winslet into lead actress at the Oscars for her performance in "The Reader" complicates our SAG calculations.

This role won Winslet the supporting actress award at the Golden Globes and she contends in that same category tonight; she is favored to win by 10 of our experts. However, only six of us expect her to repeat her Golden Globe triumph as lead actress (drama) with a win tonight for "Revolutionary Road." Nine of us predict Meryl Streep will win her first movie SAG award for "Doubt." (Streep has lost five individual bids and been part of three losing ensembles.) Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married") and Melissa Leo ( "Frozen River") each picked up a pair of endorsements.

Last year, Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood") and Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men") threepeated while Julie Christie ("Away From Her") did not. Though still sexy at sixtysomething, Julie Christie could not match the babe factor of Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose"), who had won the Golden Globe for best actress musical/comedy. And Christie did not tirelessly campaign, as did Cotillard.

The other four players in that losing fivesome also had factors that went against them at the Academy Awards. Two years ago, Eddie Murphy was riding high with wins for his tour de force performance in "Dreamgirls," but the February release of "Norbit" reminded Oscar voters of his true talent, and they gave the supporting actor trophy to veteran Alan Arkin ("Little Miss Sunshine"). Perhaps Murphy took solace in his record three acting Razzie Awards for "Norbit."

In 2002, Renée Zellweger won the comedy/musical Globe and Actor for "Chicago" but lost the Oscar by a nose to Nicole Kidman ("The Hours"), who had won the drama Globe. She fell victim to the longstanding preference of Oscar voters for dramatic performances over those in comedies and musicals but had her revenge the following year when she won all three awards for playing a hillbilly in "Cold Mountain" while that film's star, Kidman, only got a Globe nom.

On Sunday night the Screen Actors Guild will bestow awards that often foretell the Oscars' winners. This year they may have extraordinary impact since the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences will mail out final Oscar ballots next Wednesday — just three days after SAG winners get a chance to put on a truly winning performance at the podium.

To predict the SAG Awards results, we've pooled the views of top pundits: Brad Brevet (RopeOfSilicon.com), Edward Douglas (Comingsoon.net), Greg Ellwood (HitFix.com), Scott Feinberg (Feinberg Files, The Envelope), Marshall Fine (Star magazine, HollywoodAndFine.com), Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Elena Howe (The Envelope), Peter Howell (Toronto Star), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Kevin Lewin (World Entertainment News Network), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Bob Tourtellotte (Reuters), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), T.L. Stanley (Gold Rush, Hollywood Reporter), Kris Tapley (InContention.com), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today) and me.

See which celebs will be presenting the trophies at the SAG Awards. Also, check out which film these pundits predict will win best picture from the Producers Guild of America.

BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor" — Howe
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk" — Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Karger, Musto, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers
Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler" — Brevet, Douglas, Howell, Lewin, Tapley, Wells, Wloszczyna

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married" — Douglas, Lewin
Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River" — Fine, Tourtellotte
Meryl Streep, "Doubt" — Brevet, Ellwood, Feinberg, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Musto, O'Neil, Tapley
Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road" — Howe, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wells, Wloszczyna

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, "Milk"
Robert Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight" — Brevet, Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howe, Howell, Karger, Lewin, Musto, O'Neil, Stanley, Tapley Travers, Wells, Wloszczyna
Dev Patel, "Slumdog Millionaire"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" — Fine, Howell, Stanley, Travers, Wells, Wloszczyna
Viola Davis, "Doubt" — Howe
Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" — Tourtellotte
Kate Winslet, "The Reader" — Brevet, Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Hammond, Karger, Lewin, Musto, O'Neil, Tapley

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE CAST
"Doubt" — Brevet, Ellwood, Musto, O'Neil, Travers, Wells
"Milk" — Douglas, Hammond, Karger, Tapley
"Frost/Nixon"
"Slumdog Millionaire" — Feinberg, Fine, Howe, Howell, Lewin, Stanley, Wloszczyna
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" — Tourtellotte

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE
"The Dark Knight" — Brevet, Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howe, Howell, Karger, O'Neil, Stanley, Travers, Tourtellotte, Wells, Wloszczyna
"Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull"
"Iron Man"
"Hellboy II: The Golden Army"
"Wanted" — Lewin

TELEVISION AWARDS

BEST ACTOR IN A TV DRAMA SERIES
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna
Hugh Laurie, "House M.D." — Lewin
William Shatner, "Boston Legal"
James Spader, "Boston Legal"

BEST ACTRESS IN A TV DRAMA SERIES
Sally Field, "Brothers & Sisters" — Lewin, O'Neil
Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU"
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace"
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" — Ellwood, Fine, Hammond, Karger, Tourtellotte
Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men" — Douglas, Feinberg, Howell, Stanley, Travers, Wloszczyna

BEST ACTOR IN A TV COMEDY SERIES
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna
Steve Carell, "The Office"
David Duchovny, "Californication"
Jeremy Piven, "Entourage"
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"

BEST ACTRESS IN A TV COMEDY SERIES
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?"
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty"
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds"
Tracy Ullman, "Tracy Ullman's State of the Union"

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST IN A TV DRAMA SERIES
"Boston Legal"
"The Closer"
"Mad Men" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna
"House"
"Dexter"

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST IN A TV COMEDY SERIES
"30 Rock" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Karger, Hammond, Howell, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Wloszczyna
"Desperate Housewives"
"Entourage" — Fine
"The Office"
"Weeds"

BEST ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE/MINI
Tom Wilkinson, "John Adams"
Ralph Fiennes, "Bernard and Doris"
Paul Giamatti, "John Adams" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna
Kiefer Sutherland, "24: Redemption"
Kevin Spacey, "Recount"

This year 18 of the 19 SAG acting nominees are repeating at the Oscars. Since double SAG nominee Kate Winslet was bumped up by the Oscars from supporting to lead for "The Reader," she was denied a lead nom for "Revolutionary Road." However, that film's Michael Shannon managed to knock SAG nominee Dev Patel of "Slumdog Millionaire" out of the supporting race.

Last year 15 of the 20 SAG nominees went on to compete at the Oscars. Two years ago, it was a staggering 19 of the 20 with the one variation coming from the same film — "The Departed" — as SAG nominee Leonardo DiCaprio was replaced at Oscar time by Mark Wahlberg.

Four of this year's five SAG-nominated ensembles appear in Oscar-nominated best pictures with SAG contender "Doubt" replaced by "The Reader." Last year only one SAG ensemble nominee — "No Country for Old Men" — made it into the best-picture race, although that film won both awards. Two years ago it was three of five, with "Little Miss Sunshine" taking the SAG prize, but losing the top Oscar to "The Departed."

All five of the lead actress nominees are competing for both awards, though Kate Winslet contends at the Oscars for "The Reader" rather than "Revolutionary Road." Last year, it was four of five as the only SAG nominee not needing a babysitter come Oscar night was Angelina Jolie ("A Mighty Heart") whose spot went to "The Savages" star Laura Linney.

The supporting actress race matches up four to five as the promotion of Kate Winslet for "The Reader" left room at the Oscars for the addition of Marisa Tomei ("The Wrestler"). Last year, this race was also four for five with SAG nominee Catherine Keener ("Into the Wild") replaced by Saoirse Ronan of "Atonement."

Lead actor matched up perfectly. Last year, it went three for five with SAG nominees and relative newcomers Emile Hirsch ("Into the Wild") and Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") replaced by Hollywood vets Johnny Depp ("Sweeney Todd") and Tommy Lee Jones ("In the Valley of Elah").

And, as mentioned, the supporting race is four for five with Shannon replacing Patel. Last year SAG nominee Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country") was replaced by Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War").

The DGA picks for best director matched up with four of the five academy choices as DGA nominee Christopher Nolan ("The Dark Knight") was edged out at the Oscars by Stephen Daldry ("The Reader"). Daldry has only helmed three films and has Oscar nods for all of them, the previous two being "Billy Elliot" (2000) and "The Hours" (2002). Last year, DGA nominee Sean Penn ("Into the Wild") lost his Oscar slot to Jason Reitman who helmed best pic nominee "Juno."

The PGA nominees for best picture also went four for five with the Oscar contenders as "The Dark Knight" was bumped by "The Reader." Last year, it was also four for five with PGA nominee "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" replaced by "Atonement."

The WGA nods for original screenplay were shut out save for Dustin Lance Black and his script for "Milk." Last year they lined up with the Oscar nominees except for "Knocked Up" which was knocked out of the competition by the team who whipped up "Ratatouille." However, the adapted screenplay race went four for five with only the WGA nominees for "The Dark Knight" bumped by David Hare, who adapted "The Reader." Last year Sean Penn, who wowed the WGA with his adaptation of "Into the Wild," was snubbed by the Oscars as was the scripter for "Zodiac." They were replaced by "Atonement" adapter Christopher Hampton and first time writer-director Sarah Polley.

The ASC choices for best cinematography lined up with the Oscar nominees except for "Revolutionary Road" shooter Roger Deakins, who was replaced by Tom Stern for "Changeling." Last year the ASC went five for five.

The ACE picks for best editing match those of the Oscars. Last year ACE nominee "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" was replaced by "Michael Clayton."

This year's 20 acting nominees include five previous Oscar winners plus another six previous Oscar nominees and nine newcomers. "Doubt" star Meryl Streep is the only two-time Oscar winner contending this year. She widened the gap for the most total acting nominations by earning her 15th nod today. And she tied Katharine Hepburn's record of an even dozen Oscar nominations in the lead race.

Streep's already staggering total of 14 previous bids exceeds the track record of the other four Oscar winners by five nominations. She has a supporting win for "Kramer vs. Kramer" (1979) and a lead win for "Sophie's Choice" (1982). She has 10 more lead noms for "The French Lieutenant's Woman" (1981), "Silkwood" (1983), "Out of Africa" (1985), "Ironweed" (1987), "A Cry in the Dark" (1988), "Postcards from the Edge" (1990), "The Bridges of Madison County" (1995), "One True Thing" (1998), "Music of the Heart" (1999), and "The Devil Wears Prada" (2006) as well as two supporting noms for "The Deer Hunter" (1978) and "Adaptation" (2002).

The other four Oscar winners in the running once more are:

Lead actress nominee Angelina Jolie, "Changeling" — supporting win for "Girl, Interrupted" (1999);

Supporting actress nominee Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler" — supporting win for "My Cousin Vinny" (1992), supporting nom for "In the Bedroom" (2001);

Lead actor nominee Sean Penn, "Milk" — lead win for "Mystic River" (2003), lead noms for "Dead Man Walking" (1995), "Sweet and Lowdown" (1999), and "I Am Sam" (2001); and

Supporting actor nominee Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt" — lead win for "Capote" (2005), supporting nom for "Charlie Wilson's War" (2007).

Among the half-dozen previous Oscar nominees, Kate Winslet set another record today. At 33, she is the youngest person to have amassed six Oscar nominations, having previously set that mark for each of her second through fifth nominations. She lost all five of those previous bids: three lead noms for "Titanic" (1997), "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" (2004), and "Little Children" (2006) as well as two supporting noms for "Sense and Sensibility" (1995) and "Iris" (2001).

Winslet's five previous nominations equal those of the other five repeat nominees who all had one nod apiece before today:

Lead actor nominee Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" — supporting nom for "13 Monkeys" (1995);

Supporting actress nominee Amy Adams, "Doubt" — supporting nom for "Junebug" (2005);

Supporting actress nominee Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" — lead nom for "Volver" (2006);

Supporting actor nominee Robert Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder" — lead nom for "Chaplin" (1992); and

Supporting actor nominee Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight" — lead nom for "Brokeback Mountain" (2005).

The first-time nominees are:

Lead actress contenders Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"; and Melissa Leo, "Frozen River";

Lead actor contenders Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor"; Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"; and Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler";

Supporting actress contenders Viola Davis, "Doubt"; and Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"; and