Who'll nab Grammy bids for best record of the year when nominations are announced Dec. 2? Below, I square off with predix against our Grammy forum moderators David "Guru" Schnelwar and Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch. Schnelwar was available for a video chat about this contest; we'll catch up with Dortch later via webcam. Meantime, his views are written below. All of us agree that top contenders include Beyonce, Black Eyed Peas, Green Day, Kings of Leon, Lady Gaga, Taylor Swift and U2.

(NOTE: Apologies for a bizarre scratching noise that can be heard here and there in the video. I don't know what it is!)

RECORD OF THE YEAR: SCHNELWAR'S PREDIX
FRONT-RUNNERS
"I Gotta Feeling," Black Eyed Peas
"21 Guns," Green Day
"Use Somebody," Kings Of Leon
"Poker Face," Lady Gaga
"You Belong With Me," Taylor Swift

POSSIBLES
"Halo," Beyonce
"Run This Town," Jay-Z featuring Rihanna and Kanye West
"Hot N Cold," Katy Perry
"Working on a Dream," Bruce Springsteen
"I'll Go Crazy If I Don't Go Crazy Tonight," U2

*****

RECORD OF THE YEAR: DORTCH'S PREDIX
FRONT-RUNNERS
"I Gotta Feeling," Black Eyed Peas
"Use Somebody," Kings of Leon
"Poker Face," Lady Gaga
"Pretty Wings," Maxwell
"You Belong With Me," Taylor Swift
 
POSSIBLES
"Halo," Beyonce
"Blame It," Jamie Foxx
"You Found Me," The Fray
"21 Guns," Green Day
“Kids,” MGMT
“Fireflies,” Owl City
"Heartless," Kanye West
"Get on Your Boots," U2

"I Gotta Feeling" spent 14 consecutive weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100. The last song that accomplished that feat, Mariah Carey's "We Belong Together," garnered a nod here. I think the BEPs are in, as is Lady Gaga, who is having a banner year.

The remaining nominees will be a mix of pop/rock and urban artists, though I have a sneaky suspicion NARAS will dig the more traditional sounds of Maxwell. Look for some surprising general-field love for him. Taylor Swift and Kings of Leon are safe bets here, but Owl City's No. 1 hit "Fireflies" is peaking right during Grammy voting, so watch out. Voter faves like U2, Kanye, Beyonce, etc., could show up here too.

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Just hours after the release of the new Michael Jackson single "This Is It" Monday, Paul Anka established his right to co-author credit on the song. Turns out the tune -- then titled "I Never Heard" -- was penned by Anka and Jackson back in 1983 when they were working together on songs for a new Anka album. As Reuters reports, "Both 'I Never Heard' and 'This Is It' share the same vocal and piano line, although the latter track boasts new overdubs from Jackson's brothers."

Paul Anka could be in for quite a payday now that he owns half of the copyright in "This Is It." But will it finally win the veteran singer-songwriter a Grammy Award? Though Paul Anka enjoyed a string of hits in the early years of the Grammys, he has never contended for any of the major awards. He was snubbed even for his 1969 English language lyrics for "My Way" -- a signature song for then Grammy favorite Frank Sinatra.

Critical response to "This Is It" has been mixed at best. Jon Pareles of the New York Times said: "No funk here: it’s the posthumous, all-sweetness-and-light Jackson that his family is determined to sell. But at least he sounds human, especially at the end, where he lets the vocal line take a few tentative leaps." Greg Kot of the Chicago Tribune said, "Jackson cycles through a verse, pre-chorus and chorus several times during the track's 3:46 duration but never really develops any of the initial ideas." And for Ann Powers of the Los Angeles Times, "His high tenor billows and crests, but never breaks; this is ecstasy without resolution. It feels great, but unfinished. It simultaneously makes you want it to keep going and to become something else, something more."

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Oh, yeah, Kanye West is also nominated for best video of the year at MTV's Video Music Awards, which will be bestowed on Sept. 13, but this is a VMA battle among Beyonce Knowles, Britney Spears, Lady Gaga and Eminem.

Kanye has never won. He was nominated for "Jesus Walks" in 2005 (losing to Green Day's "Boulevard of Broken Dreams") and for "Stronger" in 2007 (Rihanna clobbered him with her "Umbrella"). Of course, Rihanna also beat Beyonce ("Irreplaceable"), which was the latter's only other nomination in this category.

Eminem won this race twice: "Without Me" (2002) and "The Real Slim Shady" (2000). Britney won last year for "Piece of Me," but that was part of her industry-wide welcome-back-from-the crazy-house hug. Previously, she'd lost all 16 nominations in all MTV VMA categories.

There's a problem with looking back at past winners to predict who'll prevail this year. The voting process has changed radically through the years. Prior to 2006, winners were chosen by a hodgepodge of media hipsters tapped by MTV. Ballots were distributed willy-nilly among various folks like producers at E! Entertainment and VH1, etc. Then in 2006, all online voters got to decide.

Personally, I loved the outcome that year, but the victory by Panic! at the Disco ("I Write Sins Not Tragedies") was considered horribly, shockingly uncool, so voting was returned to hand-picked hipsters again in 2007 and 2008, but of a slightly different mix. This year democracy triumphs again as voting is being returned to the great unwashed.

A MTV rep explains to Gold Derby the latest voting process: "This year nominees were chosen by a voting academy which consists of label reps, management reps, press, production companies and a few talent 'tastemakers' plus 2,000 first-come, first-serve mtv.com account holders who signed up for mtv.com extras e-mails. Winners will be determined by the general public this year through voting on MTV.com and via mobile. The best new artist category will be open to the public and remain live into the show on Sept. 13."

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"Despite struggling with her vocals on "Good Morning America," Whitney Houston's latest album 'I Look To You' is projected to sell 200,000 copies and gain the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 chart," reports Billboard.

If Whitney pulls that off, it'll be a notable achievement, because she's competing against Miley Cyrus' new CD, "The Time of Our Lives," which might be restricted in sales by being released exclusively by Wal-Mart — and prematurely at that. "Lives" was supposed to debut this past Tuesday, but Miley confessed via Twitter that she's "kinda bummed" that Wal-Mart put it on shelves last Friday, triggering early sales of 62,000 copies.

If that helps Whitney to get back on top of the charts, it might give the former Grammy queen a big psychological push in the new awards derby. "I Look to You" debuted (on time) on the last day of Grammy eligibility so that it will be most fresh on voters' minds when they check off their nomination ballots in October. Whitney Houston won six Grammys, including the recording academy's two highest honors — best record ("I Will Always Love You") and album ("The Bodyguard") of the year (1993).

Miley Cyrus, by contrast, has won no Grammys.

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Since Grammy nominations for best record of the year are chosen by a secret committee of 25 people with uncertain tastes and agendas, they're not easy to predict. However, our kudos prophets David "Guru" Schnelwar and Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch, who moderate our forums, agree on three of the final five contenders: Black Eyed Peas ("Boom Boom Pow" or "I Gotta Feeling"), Lady Gaga ("LoveGame" or "Poker Face") and Taylor Swift ("Love Story" or "You Belong With Me").

I agree with DoubleD that Kings of Leon's "Use Somebody" is also a front-runner. Guru has it ranked merely as a possibility, but I'll be flabbergasted if it's not nominated in November. (I think it would win if voting occurred right now.) Awards will be presented on Jan. 31.

So . . . hmmm . . . maybe these nominees actually will be easy to predict this year, after all? Check out DoubleD's and Guru's predix for best album of the year here.

RECORD OF THE YEAR: DOUBLED'S PREDIX
(Front-runners)
"Boom Boom Pow" or "I Gotta Feeling," Black Eyed Peas
"Blame It," Jamie Foxx
"Use Somebody," Kings of Leon
"Poker Face," Lady Gaga
"Love Story" or "You Belong With Me," Taylor Swift
 
(Possible)
"Hometown Glory," Adele
"Halo" or "Single Ladies" (if eligible), Beyonce
"You Found Me," the Fray
"21 Guns," Green Day
"Pretty Wings," Maxwell
"Heartless," Kanye West
"Get On Your Boots," U2
 
DOUBLED'S COMMENTARY: I'd be surprised if the Black Eyed Peas and Lady Gaga weren't nominated for best record. Their songs have been ubiquitous this year. Plus, the Peas are past nominees in this category, and Gaga is this year's biggest breakout star.

After that, this category is up for grabs. Jamie Foxx or Maxwell will probably represent the R&B vote; my money's on Foxx since "Blame It" was such a huge hit. Earlier this year, Kings of Leon beat out some heavyweights (including Coldplay, Eagles, AC/DC and Radiohead) for the rock duo/group Grammy. "Use Somebody" is currently exploding on radio; it's in the top five on the Billboard Hot 100 and has brought the underrated band some surprising commercial success.

Finally, Taylor Swift is, arguably, the biggest pop/country star on the planet right now, and her country singles have done extremely well on the pop charts; she's a safe bet. If any of those choices fall though, expect any of the past nominees for record of the year — Beyonce, Kanye, U2, Adele, Green etc. — to return. Or the Fray's hugely popular "You Found Me" could surprise, though I suspect it'll end up in the song-of-the-year category instead.

RECORD OF THE YEAR: GURU'S PREDIX
(Front-runners)
"Halo"  or "Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)," Beyonce
"Boom Boom Pow" or "I Gotta Feeling," Black Eyed Peas
"21 Guns," Green Day
"Love Game" or "Poker Face," Lady Gaga
"Love Story" or "You Belong With Me," Taylor Swift

(Possible)
"Knock You Down," Keri Hilson featuring Ne-Yo & Kanye West
"Run This Town," Jay-Z featuring Rihanna & Kanye West
"Use Somebody," Kings of Leon
"Hot 'N' Cold" or "Waking Up in Vegas," Katy Perry
"Working on A Dream," Bruce Springsteen
"Get On Your Boots" or "Magnificent" or "I'll Go Crazy if I Don't Go Crazy Tonight," U2
"Heartless," Kanye West 
 
GURU'S COMMENTARY: Taylor Swift is the biggest country crossover artist since Shania Twain.  Swift started 2009 off with "Love Story" and now is getting huge airplay for "You Belong With Me."
 
Two-time record-of-the-year nominees the Black Eyed Peas just made Billboard Hot 100 chart history for "Boom Boom Pow" and "I Gotta Feeling," being No. 1 for a total of 20 weeks. The only negative is that both songs were not played on VH1.

2005 record-of-the-year winner Green Day is hoping for its third nomination in this category.

Miley Cyrus just won a Kids' Choice Award as best female vocalist for a second year in a row, but she isn't nominated for any prizes at this Sunday's awards bestowed by the  Academy of Country Music at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas (CBS, 8 p.m. ET/ PT). Nonetheless, Miley Cyrus will make her ACM Awards debut while performing her latest hit tune, "The Climb," from the soundtrack of "Hannah Montana: The Movie."

Reba McEntire will debut her new single "Strange," the first release from her upcoming album. Reba is hosting the ACM Awards show for a record 11th time and is nominated for best vocal event for her collaboration with Brooks & Dunn ("Cowgirls Don't Cry").

Other performers at the kudocast include Brad Paisley, Lady Antebellum, Jamey Johnson, John Rich, Lee Ann Womack, Toby Keith, Miranda Lambert, Tim McGraw, Heidi Newfield, Rascal Flatts, Sugarland and Taylor Swift.

Taylor Swift could pull off some big award upsets on Sunday night. Carrie Underwood has held onto the trophy for best female vocalist for the past two years, but now she could be usurped by Swift, who's recently become a sudden mega-star. Taylor Swift ("Fearless") also poses a threat to Underwood ("Carnival Ride") in the race for best album of the year where they compete against Montgomery Gentry ("Back When I Knew It All"), Jamey Johnson ("That Lonesome Song") and George Strait ("Troubadour").

See a full list of nominees here at the Academy of Country Music's website.

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As regular Gold Derby readers know, I own what's believed to be the world's largest private collection of historic showbiz awards outside of Jack Nicholson's house. (More details about all that here, here and here.) So I'm not one of those snobs who goes into fits of outrage at the thought that the sanctity of these statuettes somehow gets violated whenever they're bought and sold. If the practice is OK for art treasures, why not showbiz ones as well? And, quite frankly, the latter variety are often just gold-plated, so harrumph, harrumph.

However, I don't own a MTV Video Music Award or American Music Award as yet. Do you? Maybe we can bid against each other next month when Julien's Auctions puts up for sale five of Michael Jackson's MTV Video Music Awards, eight American Music Awards, two Billboard Awards, seven NAACP Image Awards plus lots of other kudos, including gold and platinum record awards.

The auction will be held from April 22 to 25 adjacent to the Beverly Hilton Hotel in Beverly Hills, California. Meantime, the items are on public view at the Hard Rock Café in New York's Time Square from March 25 to 28.

Michael Jackson's lawyers recently filed papers to shut down this auction, but that may just be one of those "Wacko Jacko" things that will mysteriously vanish soon. I recently talked about that with auctioneer Darren Julien, one of the most respected dealers in Hollywood memorabilia. He's handled auctions in the past for Cher, Barbra Streisand and U2. I've purchased many of the items in my personal collection from him. Darren assures Gold Derby that the auction will proceed as planned and will be completely legit. Jackson entered into a formal contract with Julien's Auctions to do this sale. Jackson and his manager chose the items to be sold and delivered them to the auction house as follow up. Part of the proceeds will go to the Grammys' MusicCares charity. See more details about the auction here.

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Let's forget for a moment who has the best shot to win "American Idol." Who among the  live show participants has the best chance to go on and contend for the top showbiz awards?

Remember that Jennifer Hudson only came in seventh place in Season 3, but went on win the Oscar, Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA and New York Film Critics Circle awards for her performance in "Dreamgirls" as well as best R&B album at the recent Grammys for her debut disc "Jennifer Hudson."

Season 3 champ Fantasia recorded a R&B duet with Hudson — "I'm His Only Woman" — that contended at those Grammys. Fantasia earned four Grammy nominations in 2006 for her first album ("Free Yourself") and  three more in 2008 for her second ("Fantasia"). She has three Billboard Awards, including the prize for top-selling single of 2004 ("I Believe").

Ruben Studdard, who won Season 2 by a whisker, picked up a Grammy nod in 2004 for best male R&B vocal performance ("Superstar"), but he lost to his idol, Luther Vandross. Runner-up Clay Aiken, who won three Billboard awards and was fan choice at the 2003 American Music Awards, has yet to pick up any Grammy noms.

Season 1 champ Kelly Clarkson won Grammys in 2006 for best female pop vocal performance ("Since U Been Gone") and pop album ("Breakaway"). She also won best female video twice at the MTV Music Video Awards — "Since U Been Gone" (2005) and "Because of You" (2006)  — as well as six Teen Choice Awards, four American Music Awards, and a People's Choice Award. And now that  Clarkson's fourth album — "All I Ever Wanted" — just entered the Billboard charts at No. 1, it's likely that more kudos are ahead.

Season 6 winner Jordin Sparks released her self-titled debut album in the fall of 2007 to good reviews and sales, including two platinum singles ("Tattoo" and "No Air"). The latter of those was with Chris Brown and landed them a recent Grammy nod for pop vocal collaboration.

While Taylor Hicks won Season 5 of "American Idol," he has never been nominated for any showbiz prize (and, let's be honest, has little hope in the future — what were voters thinking in 2006, eh?). However, fourth-place finisher Chris Daughtry scored four Grammy nominations for his group's self-titled debut "Daughtry." And they won four American Music Awards in 2007.

Season 4 champ Carrie Underwood is the only "American Idol" ever  nominated for best new artist at the Grammys, which she won in 2007, in addition to best female country vocal performance ("Jesus, Take the Wheel"). She repeated in that category in both 2008 ("Before He Cheats") and 2009 ("Last Name"). Carrie Underwood has also won five American Music Awards, five Country Music Assn. Awards, six Academy of Country Music Awards, and six CMTs.

So what about the current crop of "American Idol" contestants? Which ones have the best awards potential? I posed that question in The Envelope's Gold Derby forums and discovered that most support goes to Kris Allen, Allison Iraheta, Adam Lambert and Lil' Rounds. Here are just a sample of comments from our posters:

Try Again: "Adam —  If the material is good or popular, he will no doubt get an AMA, VMA nomination. Allison — She seem the most poised to earn multiple nominations from the AMAs, VMAs and Grammys. She could do well with the right material to get a couple of nominations."

Gucci: "At this point, Lil' Rounds is the only one to me that has potential to land some Grammy nominations within the R&B field."

LKMOSCAR: "Allison is the only one as of now."

DJWolff: "Kris Allen seems to be the only contestant with some viable marketability. However, Adam Lambert has a huge following. He can definitely exploit the emo-Tokio Hotel route and win VMAs on his own (especially if they're fan-voted)."

As another one of the hopefuls gets booted off of "American Idol" tonight, consider which of the remaining 10 is likely to match the achievements of Season 1 champ Kelly Clarkson. Her fourth album — "All I Ever Wanted" — just entered the Billboard charts at No. 1.That bounced U2 from the top of the perch. The Irish band ended up in the third position for the second week of sales for "No Line on the Horizon."

Kelly Clarkson pulled off this impressive feat with a flurry of promotional appearances, including singing her No. 1 single "My Life Would Suck Without You" on last week's live "American Idol." Back in January, she broke a Billboard record when that first cut from the album jumped 97 places in just one week. And while critics are divided about her return to a more familiar style, the impressive sales of that single, and to some extent the album, could help raise  Clarkson's profile come Grammy nominations time.

However, while it is tempting to tout this album as Kelly Clarkson's comeback, the first week sales are actually below those for her last effort — the introspective 2007 disc "My December." That album, which boasted a different sound from the pop princess, was met with confusion by critics and fans alike and barely went platinum in the end. That it was characterized as a disappointment was due more to the staggering success of her second album — "Breakaway" — than the failure of this third one.

After all, the breakthrough "Breakaway" sold 6 million copies and won Kelly Clarkson a pair of 2006 Grammy Awards for best female pop vocal performance ("Since U Been Gone") and pop album. By comparison, "Thankful" — the debut album that followed in the wake of her 2002 crowning as the first "American Idol" — went double platinum but failed to impress the critics.

Of the other six "American Idol" winners to date, only one really wowed the recording industry with their first efforts. That was Season 4 champ Carrie Underwood who was named best new artist at the 2007 Grammy Awards. And she has won three consecutive Grammys for female country vocal performance: 2007 ("Jesus, Take the Wheel"), 2008 ("Before He Cheats"), and 2009 ("Last Name").  Carrie Underwood has also won five American Music Awards, five Country Music Assn. Awards, six Academy of Country Music Awards, and six CMTs.

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The new U2 album "No Line on the Horizon" debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard charts by selling 484,000 copies. The band's last album -- "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb" -- moved 840,000 units in its first week of release back in November 2004. However, as the always insightful Todd Martens of the Pop & Hiss blog points out in this must-read story, "a closer look at U2's sales stats suggests that 'Atomic Bomb' was an aberration in the career of the Irish superstars." Turns out that U2 usually sells its albums over the long run rather than in a short burst in the first few weeks of release. All of its first 11 albums eventually went at least platinum. Interestingly, "Atomic Bomb" moved almost 30% of its 3 million copies in that first week.

Reviews for this new album were always respectful if not raves. Writing for the Los Angeles Times, Ann Power gave the disc three out of four stars. She thought, "U2's celebration of life has always also been a celebration of itself, and Bono still has a gift for radiating joy in a way that feels inclusive, not egotistical. At the same time, 'No Line on the Horizon' is most interesting when the band and its producers let their well-deserved wallowing become a drift down the river toward something different."

While part of the promotional effort had U2 appearing all last week on "The Late Show With David Letterman," the band premiered the first single -- "Get on Your Boots" --- on the Feb. 8 Grammy Awards telecast. Though that track has been only a modest success with 188,000 downloads, there are many more to come in the months ahead. And taken individually and as a whole, how many of these will figure in the Grammy nominations when they are announced at the end of the year?

Over the years, U2 has won 22 Grammys spread out over 11 categories. That haul ties the group with Stevie Wonder. However, Wonder has won three album of the year Grammys, as did Paul Simon and the late Frank Sinatra. U2 has taken this top honor twice -- for "The Joshua Tree" and "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb."

While the band's first five albums failed to break through with Grammy voters, all that changed with disc No. 6 — "The Joshua Tree." U2 won album of the year in 1987 and the first of seven rock duo or group awards (the other wins in that category came in 1988, 1992, 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2005).

U2's next studio album, "Achtung Baby," lost album of the year to Eric Clapton's "Unplugged" in 1992. While "Zooropa" won the alternative album award in 1993, U2's follow-up "Pop" went flat with Grammy nominators. "All That You Can't Leave Behind" contended for the top prize in 2001 but lost to the "O Brother, Where Art Thou?" soundtrack. But "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb" won album of the year in 2005.

Besides their two album of the year Grammys, U2 has won record of the year twice -- "Beautiful Day" (2000) and "Walk On" (2001) -- and song of the year twice as well: "Beautiful Day" (2000) and "Sometimes You Can't Make It on Your Own" (2005). And in addition to those seven Grammys for rock group, U2 has won rock album twice -- "All That You Can't Leave Behind" (2001) and "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb" (2005) -- and rock song twice: "Vertigo" (2004) and "City of Blinding Light" (2005). And they have three video wins -- performance ("Where the Streets Have No Name," 1988)' long-form ("Zoo TV," 1994), and short-form ("Vertigo," 2004) -- as well as single wins for alternative album ("Zooropa," 1993) and pop group ("Stuck in a Moment You Can't Get Out Of," 2001).

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