Let this be a lesson to all of us smug Oscar seers who insist that they know how the current derby will play out. Most of us now say that it's "The Social Network" versus "The King's Speech" for best picture, Colin Firth ("The King's Speech") versus James Franco ("127 Hours") for lead actor and Natalie Portman ("Black Swan") versus Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right") for lead actress. But true?

One year ago today, we weren't even talking about the eventual winners of lead actor and actress: Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart") and Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side").

BEST PICTURE: Last year in mid-October we had a decent grasp of the best picture race in terms of leading contenders, but nearly all Oscarologists were betting on "Up in the Air." Just weeks earlier "Precious" had the most buzz. Expectations were building for "Avatar" but also for "Nine," "Invictus" and "The Lovely Bones." "Bright Star," which had already been seen, still shone brightly. Ditto: "An Education," "Up," "A Serious Man," "Julie & Julia," even "District 9." A surge was building for "Inglourious Basterds." "The Hurt Locker" was among top rivals, but it hadn't made its surge to the head of the pack. 

LEAD ACTOR: Fox Searchlight had not announced that "Crazy Heart" was about to ambush this contest, so all eyes were on George Clooney ("Up in the Air") as lead pony. Matt Damon ("The Informant") and Daniel Day-Lewis ("Nine") seemed like good bets for bids. Other top rivals: Colin Firth ("A Single Man"), Jeremy Renner ("The Hurt Locker"), Tobey Maguire ("Brothers"), Viggo Mortensen ("The Road"), Morgan Freeman ("Invictus"), Sharlto Copley ("District 9"), Robert Downey Jr. ("Sherlock Holmes"), Robert DeNiro ("Everybody's Fine"), Mark Wahlberg ("The Lovely Bones"), Peter Sarsgaard ("An Education"). Final nominees turned out to be Bridges, Clooney, Firth, Freeman and Renner.

Two contenders seem to be out front to win the Oscar for lead actress: Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right") and Natalie Portman ("Black Swan"). Both rivals have the Cool Factor and significant camps rooting for them to win.

Bening's performance as a lesbian momma is low-key compared with her flamboyant turns in the films that earned her past nominations: "The Grifters," "American Beauty" and "Being Julia." Ordinarily, this role wouldn't reap an Oscar bid, but Bening is so overdue to win that she could ride the same wave that resulted in victory for previous overdue veterans such as Helen Mirren ("The Queen"), Susan Sarandon ("Dead Man Walking") and Shirley MacLaine ("Terms of Endearment").

Also in Bening's favor: playing gay. That worked for Sean Penn ("Milk") and Tom Hanks ("Philadelphia").

However, the old academy boys usually love to crown ingenues, especially if they're sexy (we call it the Babe Factor) like recent champs Charlize Theron ("Monster") and Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball"). Natalie Portman is truly hot in "Black Swan" — with steamy girl-on-girl and masturbation scenes. Portman is not unknown to Oscar voters, who gave her a nomination in the supporting actress race of 2004 ("Closer").

Also see our handicapping of the Oscar races for lead actor and best picture.

BEST LEAD ACTRESS
(Front-runners)
Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"
Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"
Lesley Manville, "Another Year"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter’s Bone"
Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

At this point, it sure looks like we have solid Oscar front-runners for best picture ("The Social Network"), best actor (Colin Firth, "The King's Speech") and best actress (Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"). It's very possible that all three could trot across the derby finish line without tripping en route.

However, we must remember how these top races appeared at this point last year. We knew that "The Hurt Locker" might be nominated for best picture, but that wasn't a certainty, and the front-runners were presumed to be "Up in the Air," "Invictus" and "Avatar."  There were still high hopes for "Nine" and "The Lovely Bones," even "Brothers."

Looking forward on this year's derby track, what can beat "The Social Network"? "The King's Speech" may be more to the taste of those older chaps in the academy, but "Social Network" is more to the taste of the edgy film critics who are likely to heap best-picture prizes on it in early December, giving it the same early momentum that paid off for "The Hurt Locker" last year. But, wait! Isn't it a terrible thing to be the early leader? That's a widely believed fallacy, yes, but, in fact, that wasn't a problem for "Titanic," "American Beauty," "The English Patient" and many other eventual champs.

BEST-ACTOR RACE: "Crazy Heart" wasn't even scheduled to be released in 2009 at this point on last year's calendar, so Jeff Bridges wasn't yet in the running. The contest seemed to be a slugfest between George Clooney ("Up in the Air"), Daniel Day-Lewis ("Nine"), Morgan Freeman ("Invictus"), Tobey Maguire ("Brothers") and Viggo Mortensen ("The Road"). Only Clooney and Freeman ended up with nominations.

Right now, it looks like the only contender who can topple Colin Firth for best actor is James Franco ("127 Hours"), but Jeff Bridges will be back in the derby, this time starring in Joel and Ethan Coen's "True Grit." The last version earned John Wayne the Oscar, of course, so we shouldn't rule out the possibility that Bridges could join the ranks of those few thesps, such as Tom Hanks and Spencer Tracy, who won back-to-back trophies. Also in this year's best-actor bout are Javier Bardem ("Biutiful"),  Robert Duvall ("Get Low"), Jesse Eisenberg ("The Social Network"), Ryan Gosling ("Blue Valentine") and Mark Wahlberg ("The Fighter").

BEST-ACTRESS RACE: We knew "The Blind Side" was coming out late in 2009, but no pundit except Pete Hammond (formerly of The Envelope, now at Deadline) took it seriously as a contender. In late September of last year, the leading contenders for best actress were Marion Cotillard ("Nine"), Abbie Cornish ("Bright Star"), Penélope Cruz ("Broken Embraces"), Vera Farmiga ("Up in the Air"), Helen Mirren ("The Last Station"), Carey Mulligan ("An Education"), Saoirse Ronan ("The Lovely Bones"), Gabourey Sidibe ("Precious"), Meryl Streep ("Julie & Julia") and Hilary Swank ("Amelia"). Nominees turned out to be Mirren, Mulligan, Sidibe, Streep and winner Bullock.

• Nicole LaPorte recaps the race for the Oscars in the wake of the Toronto film fest, including an analysis of a best actress bout between Hollywood vet Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right") and the ingenue Natalie Portman ("Black Swan"). As Nicole writes, "With the acquisitions mood relatively low-key -- long gone are the days of all-night bidding wars, thanks to the economy and the slimmed-down independent film market -- the focus was almost entirely on predicting this season's 'The Hurt Locker.' No one seemed to mind that it's still relatively early, and that a number of films already looming large in the Oscar race, such as David Fincher's Facebook movie, 'The Social Network,' and David O. Russell's 'The Fighter,' a boxing drama with Mark Wahlberg and Christian Bale, have yet to be released." THE DAILY BEAST

• Steve Pond delivers a crackerjack report from Toronto as well, highlighting 10 key moments. Leading off his list: "'The King’s Speech' shows that it's for real. Even before it won the People's Choice Award, Tom Hooper's drama about King George VI's reluctant ascension to the British throne had proven its point at Toronto. With an opening-Friday gala whose rapturous reception matched the one it had reportedly received in Telluride, the dramatic, surprisingly funny and intensely emotional film clearly proved that it has what it takes to win over audiences and remain a major player throughout awards season. Even beyond getting a towering lead performance from Colin Firth and a wry supporting turn by Geoffrey Rush, Hooper shows a light, deft touch, and keeps his film distinctive and quirky enough that it never seems old-fashioned despite a subject matter that could seem a bit dusty. 'The King's Speech' came into Toronto in the top echelon of Oscar contenders, and leaves in the same spot." THE WRAP

• While many awards contenders are already in the mix, Paramount isn't releasing "The Fighter" till December. And says Greg Ellwood, "What's expected to seriously assist "Fighter" and make it a true contender is Christian Bale's transformative performance and excellent turns by previous nominees Amy Adams and Melissa Leo (or at least what is being whispered about town). What hasn't been heard is significant buzz for Mark Wahlberg. That doesn't mean 'The Departed' star isn't good in 'The Fighter,' but he may be unfortunately overshadowed by his counterparts. That means he'll most likely need the movie to be a major triumph to land his second nomination." HIT FIX

• The 37th edition of the People's Choice Awards will air Jan. 5 on CBS with Queen Latifah once again hosting. As always, public votes will determine both nominees and winners. And this year, the public will get to choose their favorites among 15 potential new categories. PCA

• Lady Gaga and Katy Perry lead with five nominations apiece at this year's MTV Europe Music Awards. The two songbirds compete for best pop, female and song awards, with Rihanna also in the running for those three races. Miley Cyrus also contends for best pop and female, while Usher rounds out the pop field and Shakira completes the female category. The kudocast originates from Madrid on Nov. 7.

• As always, Nathaniel Rogers is aces at keeping track of all the possible nominees for best foreign language film at the Oscars. He neatly summarizes the announced entries as well as those still in the running for the nod from their respective countries. In addition, he handicaps the likelihood of each film making the final five, including a list of awards already won as well as the history of each country in this highly competitive category. THE FILM EXPERIENCE

• Guy Lodge highlights the awards bestowed by the international critics' association FIPRESCI. At Venice they went for the Russian film "Silent Souls" while in Toronto they opted for "L'amour Fou." And, as Guy reports, "once a year, they poll their collected membership to elect a Grand Prix winner for Film of the Year. A list of past winners of the prize, awarded since 1999, reads rather like a greatest-hits compilation of recent arthouse cinema: 'There Will Be Blood,' '4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days,' 'All About My Mother' and so on. So, what's their Film of the Year for 2010? Roman Polanski's 'The Ghost Writer.'" IN CONTENTION

• The tuner version of "Catch Me If You Can" has set an opening date of April 10, 2011, at a Nederlander Broadway house. This musicalization of the movie brings together three Tony champs from "Hairspray" -- songwriting team Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman and director Jack O'Brien -- as well as choreographer Jerry Mitchell. Tony-winning playwright Terrence McNally has crafted the book based on the film and autobiography of Frank Abagnale.

Top image: Toronto International Film Festival logo. Credit: TIFF

Middle photo: Mark Wahlberg and Christian Bale in "The Fighter." Credit: Paramount

Bottom photo: Academy Award statues. Credit: AMPAS

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"That's it! The best actress race is already over!" gasped a notable Oscar-tracking journo after witnessing Natalie Portman's dazzling diva turn in Darren Aronofsky's ballet thriller, "Black Swan," at the Toronto International Film Festival.

I was equally wowed and tempted to agree with that Oscar assessment except for one cautious reminder. At this point on last year's calendar we didn't know that the eventual winners of the last Academy Awards for best actress and actor -- Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side") and Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart") -- were even in the running.

That said, it's still fun to make fierce pronouncements, so let's leap as boldly as Portman does on screen while she performs "Swan Lake": Yes, she's out front. Yes, Portman will be very hard to beat because she's got many strong advantages.

1) DIVA APPEAL: In "Black Swan," Portman gives in dance what many past winners did in song -- the full-throttle diva performance: Barbra Streisand ("Funny Girl"), Liza Minnelli ("Cabaret") and Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose"). Unfortunately, ballet has played only a minor role at Oscars past, so it's hard to look backward for guidance to what will happen ahead. "The Turning Point" spawned two best actress nominees (who probably canceled each other out in the voting), Shirley MacLaine and Anne Bancroft, but they played dancers past their prime, not bouncing ferociously and constantly on stage.

2) GET PHYSICAL: Throughout the two hours of "Black Swan," Portman gives an even more athletic performance than Hilary Swank did when boxing her way to an Oscar victory for "Million Dollar Baby."

3) THE BABE FACTOR: Those notoriously frisky good ol' boys in the motion picture academy have clearly turned the best actress competition into a beauty contest in recent years: Sandra Bullock ("Blind Side"), Charlize Theron ("Monster"), Nicole Kidman ("The Hours"), Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball"), Julia Roberts ("Erin Brockovich"), Gwyneth Paltrow ("Shakespeare in Love") plus many more examples in between and earlier. Portman is knockout gorgeous in "Black Swan."

4) THE SEX FACTOR: Overt eroticism used to be a turnoff at the Oscars in more prudish times, but nowadays we're seeing those academy gents get excited by sexy roles. Some cynics say Kate Winslet ("The Reader") and Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball") wouldn't have won without their brazen sex scenes. In "Black Swan," Portman has steamy masturbation and lesbian scenes.

"Natalie Portman’s dazzling tour de force makes her an instant leading contender in every best-actress race," Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood) proclaimed about her performance in "Black Swan" after its premiere at the Telluride Film Festival.  The London Times decreed Portman so "astounding" in Darren Aronofky's ballet thriller that "awards are sure to follow."

Portman is so lovely that she could certainly fit this year's "The Babe Factor" at the Oscars, where the best-actress race has largely been a beauty pageant for more than a decade (Sandra Bullock, Marion Cotillard, Reese Witherspoon, Nicole Kidman, Charlize Theron, Halle Berry, Julia Roberts, etc.). It can't hurt that she has a steamy lesbian scene in "Black Swan" that will surely get noticed by those notoriously frisky good ol' boys in the motion picture academy.

But is Portman really such a shoo-in for best actress? And what about "Black Swan" getting into the best picture race? Aronofky's "The Wrestler" didn't make the cut for best picture of 2008, but there were only five nominees back then.

Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood, Indiewire) includes "Black Swan" on her list of top 13 strongest rivals to be nominated for the top 10 best-pic slots, but she's not confident about its chances. She says, "I wonder how 'Black Swan' will fare on the academy side. It may be painful for older voters to watch" because of its violence on screen. Nonetheless, Thompson believes "actors may laud Portman."