The growing trend toward adding more entertainment to award shows just took a curious twist. The Golden Globes announced that Ricky Gervais will host the show Jan. 17, marking the first time that the award ceremony has had an emcee since 1995. John Larroquette ("Night Court," "The John Larroquette Show") and Janine Turner ("Northern Exposure") were the last to have the job, serving jointly as ringmasters the last time TBS aired the Golden Globes telecast before NBC's takeover.

Gervais is a smart choice for several reasons — he's considered ultra-hip by the cognoscenti and he's handled himself deftly, and hilariously, at award shows in the past. Most memorable were his antics at the Emmys in 2008, one year after he failed to show up for his upset victory as best comedy actor for "Extras." Watch the YouTube video below to recall his wacky exchange with Steve Carell that was so slick many viewers initially believed it wasn't scripted. A few weeks earlier, he admitted that he was plotting a diabolical stunt when he did a podcast chat with us at Gold Derby (listen here).

At the most recent Globes, Gervais raised eyebrows when he appeared at the podium and teased "The Reader" star Kate Winslet about finally winning her first statuette from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association: "I told you. Do a Holocaust movie and the awards come! Didn't I?"

But Gervais is also an appropriate choice to host the next HFPA kudocast considering that the Globes paid a huge role in bringing the British comedian to prominence in the U.S. Six years ago he was just marginally on the Hollywood radar as the dumpy, oddball star of the quirky U.K. TV comedy series "The Office," which was reaping minuscule TV ratings on BBC America. Most award-watchers were shocked when it pulled off Golden Globe nominations for best comedy series and lead actor and certainly didn't think it had any chance of winning. The fact that the show broke through with such high-ranking nominations was credited to the fact that voters are foreigners, so therefore more attuned to British TV largely unfamiliar to Yankee audiences.

But "The Office" won the comedy trophy over Emmy champ "Arrested Development," frequent Globes fave "Sex and the City," "Monk" and "Will & Grace." Gervais won best comedy actor over Matt LeBlanc ("Friends"), Tony Shalhoub ("Monk"), Bernie Mac ("The Bernie Mac Show") and Eric McCormack ("Will & Grace").

Usually, I'm backstage in the press room during most Globes ceremonies, but that year I sat at a banquet table in the audience with the stars and got to witness up close how flabbergasted everyone was by the victories.

But when Gervais triumphed twice at the Globes with a low-rated, little-known show, it signaled that he was becoming a serious Hollywood player. In recent years, awards bloggers have bandied his name around as a possible Oscar host, but it was unlikely that he could land that post considering his low Q score. He's perfect for the Globes gig, though, and, if he does well on stage at the Beverly Hilton, he may have a future shot to hold forth at the Kodak Theatre.

Photo: BBC

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Ricky Gervais may be too afraid to host the Oscars but he has certainly proved his appeal with the Emmys. In September, he was nominated for a record four awards for writing, producing, directing and starring in the one-off telefilm finale of his series "Extras." While he lost those races, he was a surprise winner in 2007 as lead comedy actor for the second season of the show. And he shared in the 2006 award for best comedy series with a win by the Americanized version of his hit Brit show "The Office."

Next year, he could well be competing at the Emmy Awards with his stand-up comedy special "Out of England," which debuts on HBO Saturday night. Robert Bianco of USA Today thought, "The jokes may seem cruel, but they're really ridiculing our fondness for cruelty and the sanctimonious pretense that we're above such things. But then, I may just be an easy audience: All Gervais has to do is flash that evil, pleased-with-himself grin, and I laugh." David Zurawik of the Baltimore Sun says, "The most daring part of his act involves commentary about charity concerts he performs. But he veers into a piece about charity events for kids with cancer that viewers might find problematic. Great comics help us laugh at the things that scare us most. But if you wind up being offended, don't say you weren't warned."

As Hal Boedeker of the Orlando Sentinel writes, "If you loved Ricky Gervais in 'The Office' (British version) and 'Extras,' you will not want to miss his HBO special." And for Alessandra Stanley of the New York Times, "Onstage he blends the best, which is to say the worst, of his two most obnoxious characters: the slimy self-delusion of David Brent, the branch manager who alone thinks he is funny, and the aggrieved hostility dished out by the failed and perpetually humiliated actor Andy Millman." That certainly sounds like a formula for winning over Emmy voters.

Over the years, the catch-all variety, comedy or music special Emmy category has rewarded a handful of HBO stand-up shows. In September, Don Rickles won both individual achievement as well this award for a HBO retrospective of his 50-plus years as a comedian. Among the shows he beat were those from a trio of other stand-ups: two HBO specials featuring perennial Emmy loser Bill Maher and the late great George Carlin as well as one by Bravo's Emmy bad girl Kathy Griffin.

Ricky Gervais hasn't decided if he'd host the Oscars if offered the job.

When asked by BBC News if he'd accept, he said, "Probably not, or maybe I would, but I'd be scared that it would be arbitrary. I don't think I'd get the freedom I needed . . . . If it was a fun night and they said you could ad-lib, I'd do it because I really enjoy that."

But Gervais has not been offered the job.

"It is true, but the Oscars people are just compiling a list of folk. I could be millionth on the list," he said. "I did hear there was a rumor going around and my agent actually got a couple of calls about it, so he checked it out. Apparently I'm on a list, but I'm not sure what list exactly. I hope it's not a sex offenders' register."

Photo: Paramount

Yesterday I emailed a gang of my blogger cohorts who track the Oscars derby and asked: "Who agrees with me that Will Smith would make the bestest Oscars host? Let's start the drum beat! "

Among the people I cc'd in the email: David Carr (NYTimes.com), Scott Feinberg (AndTheWinnerIs), Lou Lumenick (NYPost.com), T.L. Stanley (HollywoodReporter.com), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily.com), Kris Tapley (InContention.com), Anne Thompson (Variety.com), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com). And YOU gentle reader can jump in and vote in our Envelope poll HERE.

SASHA STONE: Ricky Gervais. Will Smith might feel compelled to rap the opening number. He might even call Jada and the kids out to rap along. Ricky Gervais, Steve Carell, Jon Stewart or Stephen Colbert.

ANNE THOMPSON: "1.) Steve Martin, 2.) Billy Crystal, 3.) Jon Stewart. Gervais can't even open a movie. I have fantasies of Hugh Jackman doing a musical medley at the top of the show. With the new producers I hope the show will continue to be classy and insider smart. Smith might be fine but don't think his stardom necessarily changes the equation. The movies need to be popular, like 'Dark Knight.'" READ MORE

SCOTT FEINBERG: "I agree 100% that Smith would be great, but why on Earth would he do it? He's on top of the world right now, so why put himself out there? An Oscar host hasn't been able to generate good reviews from the majority of critics or good ratings from viewers in years. I'm afraid it's as thankless a job as being president these days! What do you think about the Gervais buzz, though? I think it would be worth the gamble for him, as someone who is a revered comedian in the UK but who is a much lesser-known quantity in the US, and I suspect he would be very good! "

LOU LUMENICK: "No, no, no to Will Smith; he's becoming the new Tom Cruise. If the new producers really want to think outside the box, I say Kal Penn and John Cho. The latter is a killer impressionist; he does the best Brando I've ever seen on the new Godfather box set."

DAVID CARR: "Colbert. Hands down. Genially savage appearance at WHCD should put everyone on notice that it won't be pretty, but will be pretty funny."

KRIS TAPLEY: "I've always thought Nathan Lane would be a great outside-the-box choice."

T.L. STANLEY: "Not that I don't love me some Fresh Prince, but he's broken my heart with all the Scientology shiznit, though people outside of NY/LA probably couldn't care less about that. I'm not convinced he'd be the right choice. Jon Stewart: played out, obviously. Carell? Good. Colbert? Better." READ MORE

TOM O'NEIL: "Will Smith will haul in the most eyeballs, which the Oscars desperately need. Ricky Gervais would be socko, but, as a draw, he's a zero. Jon Stewart? You're kidding, right? Maybe so he can co-host with David Letterman and Chris Rock? Do we believe that there's death in threes? Stewart's hosted twice so far, let's recall."

SASHA STONE: "Recall, are you kidding? There is only one way to save the Oscars. Nominate films people have seen and are invested in. "Titanic," "Gladiator," "Return of the King," "The Dark Knight." No one cares about the host. Well, unless they're reality TV show hosts and then it's like the Sarah Palin of hosts: you didn't know how bad it could be until you saw how bad it could be. Will Smith is still trying to rescue his film career. He wants to be Denzel Washington not Billy Crystal. Steve Carell."

Did you enjoy that stunt on the Emmys on Sunday night when Ricky Gervais marched into the audience and demanded that Steve Carell give him back the Emmy he beat him for last year as best comedy actor?

While the stunt was obviously a put-on, it addressed a somewhat serious situation.

The "Extras" star actually received statuette not long after Steve Carell claimed it at the podium when summoned to the stage by presenters Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert when Ricky Gervais couldn't attend last year.

Ever since then a rumor has persisted that Carell (star "The Office," which was spun off of Gervais' original British production) has refused to give it to the real winner. Carell spread it himself, saying so as a joke, but it was widely believed to be true. Gold Derby asked Ricky Gervais for the real scoop when we chatted with him last month.

"Well, I've got it now," he told us. "It may be a rumor, but when it was taken from him, I sent 'round some very big guys to get it. He held onto it and cried. He just cried and said, 'Why do you have to take this from me as well?' He was holding onto it. I don't know. That may be libelous."

Listen to our full podcast chat - CLICK HERE.

Gold Derby recruited two teams of experts to predict who'll win the Primetime Emmy Awards on Sept. 21 and discovered surprising consensus. Heavy favorites: "Mad Men" for best drama series, last year's champ "30 Rock" to repeat as best comedy, "John Adams" as best miniseries and "Damages" star Glenn Close as best drama actress.

But the two teams differ drastically in a few races and that's probably because of how I organized the teams. Team TV Journos comprises notable writers who cover the TV beat and pay close attention to the Emmys. Team The Envelope is composed largely of award nuts like me who pay special attention to past voting patterns and the sample episodes submitted to Emmy judges by the nominees.

It's interesting to note that one member of Team TV Journos really does too — that's John Kubicek, who once won a Gold Derby amateur prediction Emmy contest when he was known as poster "Tommy Castro" in our forums, but now I am banishing him (sorry, John!) to the journo team since he's a writer for BuddyTV.com. While Tommy Castro still posts in our message boards, the only forum posters I'm including on Team The Envelope are our Emmy-savvy moderators. Call it a perk of leadership.

TEAM TV JOURNOS: Michael Ausiello (Entertainment Weekly), Aaron Barnhart (Kansas City Star), Marc Berman (MediaWeek), Robert Bianco (USA Today), Hal Boedeker (Orlando Sentinel), Melissa Grego (Broadcasting and Cable), Richard Huff (New York Daily News), John Kubicek (BuddyTV), Lisa de Moraes (Washington Post), Kristin Dos Santos (E! Online — CLICK HERE for expanded Emmy predix), Maggie Furlong (AOL Television), Michele Greppi (TV Week), Matt Mitovich (TVGuide.com), Ray Richmond (Hollywood Reporter), Matt Roush (TV Guide), Maureen Ryan (Chicago Tribune), Michael Starr (New York Post), David Zurawik (Baltimore Sun).

TEAM THE ENVELOPE: Chris "Boomer" Beachum (Gold Derby forums), Elena Howe (The Envelope), Joseph A. Kapsch (Latimes Entertainment), Robert Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net, Gold Derby forums), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby, TheEnvelope), Andrew Pickett (Gold Derby forums)

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Boston Legal"
"Damages" — Beachum
"Dexter" — Huff
"House"
"Lost" — Barnhart, Dos Santos, Greppi
"Mad Men" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Grego, Furlong, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, ZurawikHowe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" — Boedeker, Pickett
"Entourage"
"The Office"
"30 Rock" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Grego, Furlong, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil
"Two and a Half Men" — Greppi

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" — Huff
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" — Ausiello, O'Neil
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" — Dos Santos, Mitovich, Howe, Kapsch
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" — Berman, Furlong, Roush, Starr, Zurawik
Hugh Laurie, "House" — Barnhart, Bianco, Boedeker, Grego, Greppi, Richmond, Ryan
James Spader, "Boston Legal" —de Moraes, Kubicek, Beachum, Licuria, Pickett
(NOTE: Tom O'Neil switched his vote from Spader to Cranson on Sept. 19.)

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES
Glenn Close, "Damages" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Furlong, Grego, Greppi, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" — Dos Santos,
Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: Special Victims Unit"
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace"
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" — Huff, Kubicek, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Greppi, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Starr, Zurawik, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Steve Carell, "The Office" — Barnhart, Grego, Ryan, Beachum
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" — Furlong
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men"

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" — Ausiello, Bianco, Grego, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Kapsch, Pickett
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" — de Moraes, O'Neil
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" — Berman, Furlong, Greppi, Huff, Ryan, Roush, Starr, Zurawik, Howe, Licuria
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine" — Boedeker, Beachum
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" — Barnhart, Dos Santos

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES
Ted Danson, "Damages" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Furlong, Greppi, Richmond, Roush, Ryan
Michael Emerson, "Lost" — Dos Santos, Kubicek, Howe
Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" — Mitovich, Licuria
William Shatner, "Boston Legal" — Barnhart, Grego, Starr, Beachum, Kapsch, O'Neil, Pickett
John Slattery, "Mad Men" — Huff, Zurawik

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES
Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal" — Richmond, Licuria, Pickett
Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers and Sisters"
Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy" — Furlong, Kubicek, Starr
Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment" — Berman, Greppi, Huff, Ryan, Zurawik, Howe
Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Grego, Mitovich, Roush, Beachum, Kapsch, O'Neil

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES
Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men" — Greppi
Kevin Dillon, "Entourage" — Huff
Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother" — Bianco, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kubicek, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Howe
Jeremy Piven, "Entourage" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Boedeker, de Moraes, Grego, ZurawikBeachum, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Rainn Wilson, "The Office" — Berman, Mitovich, Richmond

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES
Kristin Chenoweth, "Pushing Daisies" — Bianco, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kubicek, Starr
Amy Poehler, "Saturday Night Live" — Ausiello, Barnhart, de Moraes, Huff, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Jean Smart, "Samantha Who? — Grego, Mitovich
Holland Taylor, "Two and a Half Men" — Greppi
Vanessa Williams, "Ugly Betty" — Berman, Boedeker, Kapsch

BEST REALITY HOST
Tom Bergeron, 'Dancing With The Stars' — Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Greppi, Roush, Zurawik
Heidi Klum, 'Project Runway' — Grego, Furlong, Ryan, Beachum
Howie Mandel, 'Deal Or No Deal' — Ausiello, Richmond
Jeff Probst, 'Survivor' — Huff, Mitovich, Licuria
Ryan Seacrest, 'American Idol' — Barnhart, Kubicek, Dos Santos, Starr, Howe, Kapsch, Pickett

BEST REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
"The Amazing Race" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Bianco, Berman, Boedeker, de Moraes, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Roush, Starr, Beachum, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
"American Idol" — Dos Santos, Grego, Zurawik, Howe, Kapsch
"Dancing with the Stars" — Richmond
"Project Runway" — Furlong, Greppi, Ryan
"Top Chef"

BEST VARIETY, MUSIC OR COMEDY SERIES
"The Colbert Report"
"The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Furlong, Grego, Greppi, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, O'Neil, Pickett
"Late Show With David Letterman" — Huff
"Real Time With Bill Maher"
"Saturday Night Live" — Licuria

BEST MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE
"Bernard and Doris" — Greppi
"Extras: The Extra Special Series Finale" — Ausiello, Berman, Furlong, Starr, Beachum, Kapsch
"The Memory Keeper's Daughter"
"A Raisin in the Sun" — Barnhart, Bianco, Dos Santos, Grego, Richmond, Ryan, Zurawik, Pickett
"Recount" — Boedeker, de Moraes, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Roush, Howe, Licura, O'Neil

OK, you've seen who all of the experts predict will win the Emmys (CLICK HERE), including me, but you haven't yet seen my careful breakdown of all contenders in each top category. Below: Gold Derby's racetrack odds. Please note: they're issued for entertainment purposes only and should not be used for gambling. Missing are the two reality races, but soon I'll add those odds too. Right now I haven't finished watching all of the episodes each nominee submitted to Emmy judges as samples of their best work.

My evaluations rely heavily on episode submissions. For example, note that I think "Saturday Night Live" is a real threat to "The Daily Show," which has won best variety series five years in a row. Granted, "SNL" hasn't won since 1993 and I still put "Daily Show" out front, but "SNL" submitted the same blockbuster episode that's likely to pay off with a win for Amy Poehler as best supporting actress: Tina Fey's return as host. Jon Stewart's episode is fantastic too — it's 20 minutes of ranting against the White House (of course) followed by a brief, fun chat with Judd Apatow.

But I don't think, like many of my peers, that Tina Fey will win best comedy actress. Three of her opponents submitted episodes that involved some element of split personality and that usually pays off with a victory. (Never again wonder how Lindsay Wagner won best drama actress for "The Bionic Woman" in 1977 — that's when she suddenly discovered her evil twin, remember?) In this year's derby, America Ferrera goes bonkers when sprayed with a poisoned perfume, Christina Applegate goes psycho when she hears the song "We've Got the Beat" on the radio and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, pumped up on testosterone, threatens to kick the "sorry, tanned, bleach-blonde, Botoxed" butts of rival school moms. The reason I give the best odds to Ferrera is because she stars in a one-hour program. The longest shows usually win — as Ferrera proved last year.

To see a full list of all episode submissions, CLICK HERE. Click through the subsequent pages of that forum to read the predix of our posters based upon what they think of those episodes. If you're curious to see what episodes were entered at past Emmy derbies, CLICK HERE. Remember: actors submit one sample episode; ditto for contenders for best variety and reality series. Nominees for best comedy and drama submit six that are paired off into three groupings that are randomly submitted to voters. Actors vote on actors, writers on writers, everybody gets to vote in the program categories. Roughly 250 to 300 voters volunteer to judge submissions in the races for best comedy and drama series. The typical acting category has about 50 to 75 judges.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Mad Men" - 5/4
"Damages" - 7/5
"Lost" - 8/1
"House" - 9/1
"Dexter" - 10/1
"Boston Legal" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"30 Rock" - 1/3
"The Office" - 8/5
"Entourage" - 20/1
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" - 30/1
"Two and a Half Men" - 40/1

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" - 2/1
James Spader, "Boston Legal" - 11/5
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - 13/5
Hugh Laurie, "House" - 8/1
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" - 8/1
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" - 35/1
(NOTE: I changed this prediction from James Spader to Bryan Cranston on Sept. 19.)

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close, "Damages" - 2/1
Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: S.V.U." - 3/1
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" - 7/2
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace" - 4/1
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" - 9/2

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" - Even
Steve Carell, "The Office" - 5/2
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" - 7/2
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" - 6/1
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" - 2/1
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" - 7/3
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine" - 5/2
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" - 3/1
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" - 50/1

BEST MINISERIES
"John Adams" - 1/2
"Cranford" - 7/5
"Tin Man" - 30/1
"The Andromeda Strain" - 40/1

Our top Emmy gurus — forum moderators Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) and Chris "Boomer" Beachum — are split over what will win the Emmy for best TV film. Rob picks the obvious favorite, "Recount," but Boomer calls a longshot: the "Extras" finale.

Like Boomer, I was impressed with the "Extras" wrap-up, but I can't see it beating "Recount." Historically, voters have almost always opted for TV movies based upon real events that are loaded with the most potent political or social message. That's true even when the movies are bad — like "A Lesson Before Dying" (1999).

BEST TV MOVIE: BOOMER'S RANKING
1.  "Extras: Extra Special Series Finale"
2.  "Recount"
3.  "A Raisin in the Sun"
4.  "Bernard and Doris"
5.  "The Memory Keeper's Daughter"

BOOMER'S COMMENTS: For weeks before the nominations were announced, I was sure that "Raisin" would win this award. However, the lack of both directing and writing nominations puts a real damper on its chances now. The smart money would be on a "Recount" win, but I seem to remember that the movie received a good-not-great reception and wasn't really "loved" by anybody. I'll take a shot with recent Emmy favorite Ricky Gervais and say that his series finale picks up a surprise win in this category.

BEST TV MOVIE: ROB'S RANKING
1. "Recount"
2. "Extras Finale"
3. "Bernard and Doris"
4. "A Raisin in the Sun"
5. "The Memory Keeper's Daughter"

ROB'S COMMENTS: This one is not as easy as it looks. Sure, it would be easy to say that "Recount" is the front-runner, with the most nominations, HBO and big Oscar-winning and -nominated stars. And for the time being, I'll go with "Recount." But "Extras" is poised for the upset, and we know how much ATAS loves Ricky Gervais. "Bernard and Doris" and "A Raisin in the Sun" also have decent shots, with a few nods under each movie's belt and high-wattage stars in their casts. I think the only safe thing to say in this race is that Lifetime should probably be happy with the nomination for "Memory Keeper's Daughter."

(Photos: HBO)

Ricky Gervais is the king of upsets at Hollywood awards. Remember: Last year the "Extras" star staged that shockeroo in the Emmy race for best comedy actor over Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock") and Steve Carell ("The Office"). Previously, there were those two jaw-droppers he pulled off at the Golden Globes in 2004 when the British version of "The Office" and he won best comedy series and actor. Listen to our podcast with Gervais — CLICK HERE — as he recalls the shock of all three victories.

In addition to his awards history, Ricky Gervais and his "Extras" finale pose serious threats in the current Emmy derby because the wrap-up TV movie is a powerful film with a wallop of an ending. This is Ricky Gervais' salvo at the same TV biz that employs Emmy voters, and it articulates the angst and rage they no doubt feel deeply about the industry too.

During the early days of the "Extras" TV series, Ricky Gervais starred as just that — a lowly extra, desperate to be famous. Now, in the finale, he's a successful TV star with a goofy lowbrow sitcom that requires him to wear a curly wig and silly red glasses and act like a happy-go-lucky moron. Fame has gone to his head, and he now wants serious, respectful showbiz work, so he quits the TV show, fires his agent, trades up for a fancy agency guy and waits for glory.

Of course, it doesn't come. His fortunes and spirits sink lower and lower until he's so desperate for work that he accepts a humiliating role on British TV's "Celebrity Big Brother."

That's where Ricky Gervais scores his big money scene that could trigger new award upsets. At one point during the reality TV show, he suddenly cracks and fumes a rant to his fellow contestants: "What are we doing? Selling ourselves, selling everything! … 'Oh, I'm pregnant. We must televise the birth. Quick, see if Ryan Seacrest can present it! Maybe it can make E! channel's "100 Greatest Cesareans."' I'm just sick of these celebrities living their lives out in the open all the time. Why would you do that? It's like these pop stars choose the perfect moment to go into rehab. They call their publicist before they call a taxi. Then they come out and do their second autobiography. This one is called 'Love Me or I'll Kill Myself.' Oh, go kill yourself then! And the papers lap it up. And they follow us round and that makes people think we're important and that makes us think we're important. If they stopped taking pictures of us, people wouldn't take to the streets going, 'Oh, quick! I need a picture of Cameron Diaz with a pimple!' They wouldn't care. They'd go on with something else. They'd get on with their lives. You open the paper and you see a picture of Lindsay Lohan getting out of a car and the headline is 'Cover Up, Lindsay! We Can See Your Knickers!' Well, of course you can see her knickers. Your photographer is lying in the road pointing his camera up her dress to see her knickers. You're literally the gutter press. And ... you, the makers of this show as well! You can't wash your hands of this . . . . "

KEEP READING RICKY'S RANT - CLICK HERE!

PHOTOS BELOW: Gervais on the TV sitcom; Gervais in dual gender roles on the show — male and in drag; he removes his wig to announce to the TV studio audience that he quits; Gervais ends up doing reality TV, appearing as a participant in "Celebrity Big Brother" in the U.K. TO SEE ALL FOUR PIX, CLICK HERE!

In our podcast chat, Ricky Gervais confesses to us that he's secretly planning to get even with Steve Carell at the upcoming Emmys.

CLICK HERE to Download the MP3 File and Listen. Note: You may need to hold down your computer's control key while clicking.

When Ricky Gervais wasn't present at last year's Emmys to accept his upset victory for best comedy actor ("Extras"), Steve Carell leapt to the stage and claimed the statuette on behalf of the man who trailblazed his role on the original "The Office." Gervais produced, wrote and starred in the British version from 2001 to 2004 before Carell debuted a Yankee rendition in 2005, which won best comedy series at the Emmys.

Next, if Carell wins best comedy actor for the U.S. version of "The Office" on Sept. 21, "I'm going to beat him to the stage just to even things up," Ricky Gervais says. "I'm going to wrestle him to the ground and get his Emmy before he can."

Gervais may also have his own Emmy to claim that night too, as a nominee for best actor in a TV film for "Extras: The Extra Special Series Finale." Most award prognosticators pooh-pooh his chance to win because he competes against four past Oscar nominees and/or winners: Ralph Fiennes ("Bernard and Doris"), Paul Giamatti ("John Adams"), Kevin Spacey ("Recount") and Tom Wilkinson ("Recount").

But it's foolish to write off Gervais at Hollywood awards where this devilish British pixie is a proven giant slayer.

Ricky Gervais has pulled off some of the biggest upsets in modern kudos history. Nobody, not even Gervais, foresaw his Emmy victory last year over Carell, Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock"), Tony Shalhoub ("Monk") and Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men").

He wasn't present because "I was playing to 5,000 people at Royal Albert Hall" in London, he tells us, but he did attend the Golden Globes in 2004, when he pulled off two jawdroppers.

That's where the British version of "The Office," which aired in the States via BBC America, won best comedy series over "Arrested Development," "Monk," "Sex and the City" and "Will & Grace." A few minutes later, Gervais won best actor over Matt LeBlanc ("Friends"), Bernie Mac ("The Bernie Mac Show"), Eric McCormack ("Will & Grace") and Tony Shalhoub ("Monk").

"That was crazy!" he recalls. "We went over there, this little show on BBC America, up against all of the big boys. The people from BBC America were saying, 'If you win, you should say this,' and I wasn't even listening. I said, 'I'm not going to win.' And when I got up there I forgot who to thank.

"When they said my name, I thought, 'That's ridiculous. How strange. We won a Golden Globe.' Then it came up for best actor, and in my head I thought, 'I bet I've won this one as well.' I went from definitely, definitely not going to win, no point, but when I won one, I thought I probably won two. That's how winning can change you.

"It was a surreal night. I'd done this little show that suddenly took off, and I'm walking past Tom Cruise and Jack Nicholson, and it was just ridiculous."

Now, as he faces off against four Oscar-caliber rivals, he says, "I don't think I can compete with those big guys. I'd hate to start thinking that people expect me to be bawdy about it. Just being invited is nice enough for me. It's an excuse to put on a suit. It's something I have to do once a year — put on some grown-up clothes."

However, if he wins this time, will he have an acceptance speech ready?