The overall champs were Scott Feinberg (Feinberg Files, The Envelope) and me with 13 out of 15 correct. Scott edged me out on the movie side by correctly picking "Slumdog Millionaire" for the ensemble prize (as did five others), and being the only pundit to score a perfect 6/6. On the TV front, I foresaw Sally Field winning lead actress in a drama series for "Brothers & Sisters" to score 8/9. However, only Kevin Lewin (World Entertainment News Network) pulled off a perfect 9/9 on the TV front, as he was the only pundit to predict Hugh Laurie winning lead actor in a drama series for "House."
Brad Brevet, Elena Howe, Michael Musto, Kris Tapley and Jeffrey Wells did not offer TV picks. I followed right behind Kevin Lewin with eight correct while Edward Douglas, Scott Feinberg, Pete Hammond, Dave Karger, Peter Travers and Susan Wloszczyna all scored seven apiece. Those with six right were Greg Ellwood, Marshall Fine, Peter Howell and T.L. Stanley while Bob Tourtellotte got five correct.
The overall scores of the 13 pundits who dared to predict all 15 categories at the SAG Awards were can be seen in the chart at right.
All of us, with the exception of Kris Tapley, also offered a prediction of the top winner at last Saturday's PGA Awards. A dozen of us -- Brevet, Douglas, Fine, Howell, Karger, Lewin, Musto, O'Neil, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wells, Wloszczyna -- went with the winner "Slumdog Millionaire" while the rest backed "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button."
What a difference a few award shows can make in the race for the Oscars. Just a few weeks ago there were still several serious contenders for best picture. "Milk" was the pick for best pic by the Gotham film critics while their LA counterparts went with "Wall-E." Two films — "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "Frost/Nixon" — led the BAFTA long list with 14 mentions each. And the year-end opening "Gran Torino" was making a mint, pointing to the potential of yet another December derby surprise from veteran Oscar champ Clint Eastwood.
However, the four acting races remain open, to one degree or another. Yes, Sean Penn ("Milk") was right when he said in his SAG acceptance speech last night that the Oscar race was down to him and Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler"). While Penn has also picked up critics' prizes on both coasts, as well as the BFCA award, Rourke won the Golden Globe and has the far more compelling personal narrative. Frank Langella will have the Tony Award he won for the stage version of "Frost/Nixon" to keep him company while "Benjamin Button" star Brad Pitt will at least get to go home with Angelina Jolie and Richard Jenkins ("The Visitor") will be glad just to have been asked to the party.
With Kate Winslet being bumped up to lead at the Oscars for a role in "The Reader" that has won her supporting prizes from the BFCA, Globes and SAG, she is the most serious threat to Meryl Streep ("Doubt") who tied for the lead BFCA prize and won the SAG award outright. Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married") will have to make do with that half a BFCA award. Angelina Jolie ("Changeling") has Brad Pitt's broad shoulder to cry on and Melissa Leo ("Frozen River") can think of poor "Happy-Go-Lucky" star Sally Hawkins, who couldn't even get an invite from Oscar despite being both the Gotham and LA crix pick and winning a Golden Globe.
"Slumdog Millionaire" has solidified its lead at the upcoming Academy Awards with a win for best ensemble at tonight's SAG Awards. That this cast of virtual and absolute unknowns from India (as well as a Brit, Dev Patel) could so impress the 100,000 members of the American-based Screen Actors Guild is evidence of the film's universal appeal. In a way, it is not surprising that the notion of defying the odds -- as the young hero does in "Slumdog Millionaire" -- would prove irresistible to actors, many of whom struggle to make a living at their gypsy profession.
The SAG Awards have included an ensemble prize since their second year (1995). Over the ensuing 13 years, the Screen Actors Guild choice has matched up with the eventual Oscar-winning best picture only six times. Indeed, the SAG Award champ did not repeat at the Oscars until the fourth year of the award in 1998 when "Shakespeare in Love" took home both awards, surprising many an Oscarologist who expected "Saving Private Ryan" to win. Since then, "American Beauty" (1999), "Chicago" (2002), "Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" (2003), "Crash" (2005), and last year's "No Country for Old Men" have won both honors.
In the years when the SAG Awards ensemble prize went to a film other than the eventual Oscar champ, there was a more populist theme to it that, no doubt, influenced the votes of the union membership. The first three SAG champs were the modern-day heroes of "Apollo 13" over "Braveheart" (1995); the high-flying men of "The Birdcage" over "The English Patient" (1996); and the show-stopping strippers who delivered "The Full Monty" over "Titanic" (1997). That last winner, a feel-good film about down-on-their-luck English steelworkers, was scripted by Simon Beaufoy, who just happened to handle the adaptation of "Slumdog Millionaire."
Of the other four films that won at SAG but lost at the Oscars, two were top-heavy with acting talent -- "Traffic" (2000) and "Gosford Park" (2001), which prevailed over Russell Crowe vehicles "Gladiator" and "A Beautiful Mind," respectively -- and two were small ensemble pieces -- "Sideways" (2004) and "Little Miss Sunshine" (2006) -- that triumphed over star-studded ones "Million Dollar Baby" and "The Departed," respectively.
When "Slumdog Millionaire" won best ensemble cast at the SAG Awards, Anil Kapoor (who portrays the game show host) got so carried away at the podium thanking the guy who hired him — "the great genius," director Danny Boyle — the producers who signed his paychecks and the film's adorable child actors ("How can I forget the children?!"), he forgot the true great talent that make this movie magical: the guy who wrote it.
Why, oh, why do people always forget to give writers their due? "Slumdog Millionaire" is so brilliant because of the script by Simon Beaufoy, who adapted an inspiring bestselling book ("Q&A") by Indian novelist Vikas Swarup. That's the key source material. That's the story that makes viewers of this film so joyous. And it's told masterfully in a script by Beaufoy, who proved with his last Oscar-nominated screenplay, "The Full Monty," that he knows how to whip audiences into a frenzy when telling tales about the triumph of underdogs. Check out my video chat with both Beaufoy and Doyle in which Beaufoy explains his magic formula.
Considering how expressive Kate Winslet was when she won best supporting actress at the Golden Globes for "The Reader" — joyous, bubbly, tearful all at once — it was curious to see her sitting there at her table tonight at the Shrine Auditorium, hunched over a bit, looking forlorn, almost sad when the camera caught her just as her name was announced as winner of a SAG Award.
But she was thunderstruck. No doubt she didn't mean to look ungrateful — the news took the wind out of her. Winning tonight means, yeah, the Oscar is probably next. "They" don't secretly hate her, after all, or consider her a lightweight. When she won at the Globes, she told us poignantly how she felt in the past as a serial loser. She was so edgy, freaked, joyous, pop-eyed and frantic as she made her brief but bold confession at the podium that a few chaps back in the press room wondered out loud why she was carrying on so crazily. "Jeez, Kate, calm down!" one journalist snarled. "It's just an award!"
No, it's not. Winslet had lost five times at the Golden Globes before she won best supporting actress for "The Reader." She also had five heart-breaking, crushing disappointments at the Oscars. At some point Winslet must have felt like winning would never really happen despite what gushing fans and fawning staffers and colleagues say. Back in 1995, Winslet won a SAG Award for "Sense and Sensibility," but it was an isolated win after losing at the Globes. This win for "The Reader" has greater significance; it's part of a winning streak and she can feel it.
Tonight, the TV camera caught Winslet like a deer in the headlights — just as wonderful reality set in, magic time — as she channeled relief, awe, peace and mad joy all at once. Then, once she collected herself, she was able to rise and head to the podium to collect it.
Seeing how Winslet looked at her table tonight, having that private moment, was one of the great scenes of this whole awards season. Remember it, Derbyites. Relish it.
In case you didn't hear, two SAG Awards were bestowed before the start of the show tonight — the new ones for stunt work. They went to "The Dark Knight" (film) and "Heroes" (TV). No big surprises there, eh?
Hey, when Tina Fey won best TV comedy series female actor, didn't you feel cheated that she didn't trash our forum posters in her acceptance speech like she did at the Golden Globes? Ah, well, we got that cute baby story about Alice instead. Well, not quite a baby. Alice is 3 years old, in case you're wondering.
"30 Rock," of course, swept the comedy series board, claiming male actor (Alec Baldwin) and ensemble in addition to best actress. No big surprises there either, eh?
However, the late Heath Ledger, who has won almost all the precursor awards, including the Golden Globe, for his supporting performance in "The Dark Knight," is expected to repeat again tonight by all 18 of our experts. Colin Farrell — surprise Globe winner for lead actor (musical/comedy) for his "In Bruges" performance — is not in competition at either of these award fests.
Likewise on the female front, Golden Globe-winner Sally Hawkins (for actress in musical/comedy) is not in the running anymore for her role in "Happy-Go-Lucky." And the bump up of Kate Winslet into lead actress at the Oscars for her performance in "The Reader" complicates our SAG calculations.
This role won Winslet the supporting actress award at the Golden Globes and she contends in that same category tonight; she is favored to win by 10 of our experts. However, only six of us expect her to repeat her Golden Globe triumph as lead actress (drama) with a win tonight for "Revolutionary Road." Nine of us predict Meryl Streep will win her first movie SAG award for "Doubt." (Streep has lost five individual bids and been part of three losing ensembles.) Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married") and Melissa Leo ( "Frozen River") each picked up a pair of endorsements.
Last year, Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood") and Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men") threepeated while Julie Christie ("Away From Her") did not. Though still sexy at sixtysomething, Julie Christie could not match the babe factor of Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose"), who had won the Golden Globe for best actress musical/comedy. And Christie did not tirelessly campaign, as did Cotillard.
The other four players in that losing fivesome also had factors that went against them at the Academy Awards. Two years ago, Eddie Murphy was riding high with wins for his tour de force performance in "Dreamgirls," but the February release of "Norbit" reminded Oscar voters of his true talent, and they gave the supporting actor trophy to veteran Alan Arkin ("Little Miss Sunshine"). Perhaps Murphy took solace in his record three acting Razzie Awards for "Norbit."
In 2002, Renée Zellweger won the comedy/musical Globe and Actor for "Chicago" but lost the Oscar by a nose to Nicole Kidman ("The Hours"), who had won the drama Globe. She fell victim to the longstanding preference of Oscar voters for dramatic performances over those in comedies and musicals but had her revenge the following year when she won all three awards for playing a hillbilly in "Cold Mountain" while that film's star, Kidman, only got a Globe nom.
Hey, where's Robert "Rob L" Licuria? He hasn't responded to my challenge to take on fellow forums moderator Chris "Boomer" Beachum in a new matchup to predict who'll win the Screen Actors Guild Awards this Sunday night. Recently, Boomer whacked Rob in a clash over predicting the most Oscar nominations, but, hey, he was just evening the score. Back in September Rob crushed Boomer when they went at it over who'd win the Primetime Emmys. Hey, Rob — you finally battle weary?
OK, I'll take ya on, Boomer! Unfortunately, for the sake of drama — and isn't that what showbiz is all about? — we don't disagree on many categories, but I'll come out swinging where I see a weak spot. We must, after all, keep Derbyites entertained as well as informed.
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY — After the Globe win, it just seems like Rourke is on a roll picking up trophies for this performance. I think SAG Awards voters will especially identify with his story of a fallen actor making his comeback. Remember, though, that longtime respected actor Sean Penn has never won a SAG Award (he was upset by Johnny Depp the year he won his Oscar), so he is still a threat here. If a veteran character actor like Frank Langella can pick up an upset win this Sunday, he would definitely boost his Oscar chances in late February.
TOM'S COMMENTARY — You're right about one thing, Boomer. Whoever wins here will get a hefty push in the Oscars derby considering the academy is mailing out final ballots three days later. But it won't be Rourke. "The Wrestler" ($6.8 million U.S. box office) wasn't as widely seen as "Milk" ($20 million) by the 100,000 members of SAG who didn't get DVD screeners of either. Yes, guild members obviously have issues with the smug Mr. Penn as evidenced by his snub for "Mystic River," but "Milk" is about a subject of extraordinary, passionate interest to members of the acting community: gay rights. I think Penn gets a free ride thanks to that.
BEST FILM ACTRESS Meryl Streep, "Doubt" - Boomer, Tom
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY - Streep has a SAG Award in a television category for "Angels in America," but has never won here for her film work. Now is the time.
TOM'S COMMENARY - I agree that Streep wins. Imagine yourself as an actor who takes the "craft" very, very seriously. You're looking over your ballot with the list of contenders here and Streep's name demands to be checked off. Sister Aloysius is Streep's flashiest, most heavenly performance in years and, besides, if you don't bow in reverence, she'll crack your knuckles good with a ruler. Hey, she's also mother superior. She outranks the mere novitiates among rivals, but two pose devilish threats: Anne Hathaway and Kate Winslet.
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY - No question at all about this category. Ledger will pick up a well-deserved award in an emotional moment Sunday night.
TOM'S COMMENTARY - While I agree with your conclusion, Boomer, I take aim at your strong assertion that there is "no question" here. Forget the journalists' awards like Los Angeles Film Critics Association and Golden Globes for a sec. SAG is our first view of how the movie industry will vote on a posthumous contender. History shows that these voters have often tossed out the dead rather mercilessly in the past. Only one deceased star has ever won an Oscar out of six previous nominees (Peter Finch, "Network") and none at the SAG Awards where only one has been nominated (Massimo Troisi, "Il Postino"). The Screen Actors Guild has been bestowing competitive prizes since 1994.
However, things are a bit different in SAG's TV races where there were two posthumous nominees, both of whom won: Jaul Julia ("The Burning Season") and Jerry Orbach ("Law & Order"). So that bodes well for Ledger.
BEST SUPPORTING FILM ACTRESS Kate Winslet, "The Reader" - Boomer, Tom
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY - Yes, she is nominated in a different category at the Oscars, but I think Winslet will win this SAG supporting award Sunday on a path to picking up the lead acting Academy Award next month. This has happened before when Benicio del Toro won lead at SAG but supporting at the Oscars for his role in "Traffic".
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST "Milk" - Boomer "Doubt" - Tom
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY - This is a tough category to predict. "Slumdog Millionaire" is the overwhelming favorite to win the best picture award at the Oscars, but it is such an unknown cast that it probably will not win this ensemble category. "Benjamin Button" seems more of a technical achievement than one for its ensemble. Don't count out "Doubt" (which has all 4 actors also nominated individually) or the well-known actors from "Frost/Nixon," but I think this is the spot for "Milk" to win one last big award this season.
TOM'S COMMENTARY - The huge gay vote within SAG could swing this to "Milk," but I think there are even more snobs within the guild. "Doubt" is based upon a Tony Awards-sweeping Broadway play. It showcases the talents of such industry gods as Streep and Hoffman mugging to the max. It would be sacrilege to vote against it
BEST ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE/MINI Paul Giamatti, "John Adams" - Boomer, Tom
BEST ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE/MINI Laura Linney, "John Adams" - Boomer, Tom
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY - Just don't go against anybody from "John Adams" when predicting these two categories. For that reason, it is interesting that both Paul Giamatti and Tom Wilkinson are finally up against each other for this miniseries. I'll go with Giamatti, though, since the entire project is about his character.
Among those boldfaced names who will appear onstage at the Shrine Auditorium this Sunday to bestow laurels from the Screen Actors Guild are Christina Applegate, Emily Blunt, Ernest Borgnine, Claire Danes, Taye Diggs, Ralph Fiennes, Jon Hamm, Katie Holmes, Anthony Hopkins, John Krasinski, Eric McCormack, Amy Poehler, Susan Sarandon, Kyra Sedgwick, Kristin Scott Thomas, William Shatner, Marisa Tomei and Forest Whitaker.
And cast members from each of the five films nominated for best ensemble (the SAG equivalent of the best picture race at the Oscars) will introduce clips from them.
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" will be intro'd by newly minted Oscar nominee Taraji P. Henson, and her supporting actress rivals Amy Adams and Viola Davis will present "Doubt." Title players Frank Langella and Michael Sheen will feature "Frost/Nixon," and a trio of supporting players -- Josh Brolin, James Franco and Emile Hirsch -- will represent "Milk." And front-runner "Slumdog Millionaire" will be showcased by young stars Dev Patel and Freida Pinto.
On Sunday night the Screen Actors Guild will bestow awards that often foretell the Oscars' winners. This year they may have extraordinary impact since the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences will mail out final Oscar ballots next Wednesday — just three days after SAG winners get a chance to put on a truly winning performance at the podium.
BEST ACTOR Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor" — Howe Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon" Sean Penn, "Milk" — Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Karger, Musto, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler" — Brevet, Douglas, Howell, Lewin, Tapley, Wells, Wloszczyna
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Josh Brolin, "Milk" Robert Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder" Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt" Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight" — Brevet, Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howe, Howell, Karger, Lewin, Musto, O'Neil, Stanley, Tapley Travers, Wells, Wloszczyna Dev Patel, "Slumdog Millionaire"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Amy Adams, "Doubt" Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" — Fine, Howell, Stanley, Travers, Wells, Wloszczyna Viola Davis, "Doubt" — Howe Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" — Tourtellotte Kate Winslet, "The Reader" — Brevet, Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Hammond, Karger, Lewin, Musto, O'Neil, Tapley
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE CAST "Doubt" — Brevet, Ellwood, Musto, O'Neil, Travers, Wells "Milk" — Douglas, Hammond, Karger, Tapley "Frost/Nixon" "Slumdog Millionaire" — Feinberg, Fine, Howe, Howell, Lewin, Stanley, Wloszczyna "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" — Tourtellotte
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE "The Dark Knight" — Brevet, Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howe, Howell, Karger, O'Neil, Stanley, Travers, Tourtellotte, Wells, Wloszczyna "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" "Iron Man" "Hellboy II: The Golden Army" "Wanted" — Lewin
TELEVISION AWARDS
BEST ACTOR IN A TV DRAMA SERIES Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna Hugh Laurie, "House M.D." — Lewin William Shatner, "Boston Legal" James Spader, "Boston Legal"
BEST ACTRESS IN A TV DRAMA SERIES Sally Field, "Brothers & Sisters" — Lewin, O'Neil Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU" Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace" Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" — Ellwood, Fine, Hammond, Karger, Tourtellotte Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men" — Douglas, Feinberg, Howell, Stanley, Travers, Wloszczyna
BEST ACTOR IN A TV COMEDY SERIES Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna Steve Carell, "The Office" David Duchovny, "Californication" Jeremy Piven, "Entourage" Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"
BEST ACTRESS IN A TV COMEDY SERIES Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" Tina Fey, "30 Rock" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" Tracy Ullman, "Tracy Ullman's State of the Union"
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST IN A TV DRAMA SERIES "Boston Legal" "The Closer" "Mad Men" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna "House" "Dexter"
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST IN A TV COMEDY SERIES "30 Rock" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Karger, Hammond, Howell, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Wloszczyna "Desperate Housewives" "Entourage" — Fine "The Office" "Weeds"
BEST ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE/MINI Tom Wilkinson, "John Adams" Ralph Fiennes, "Bernard and Doris" Paul Giamatti, "John Adams" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna Kiefer Sutherland, "24: Redemption" Kevin Spacey, "Recount"
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