Our panel of 18 pro pundits did far better at predicting the winners of the SAG Awards than we did with the Golden Globe Awards. While we scored only 53% when foreseeing the Globe movie results, a collective 64% (69/108) of our predictions coincided with the SAG winners. And we bettered our Globe TV score by 1%, with 75% (88/117) of our SAG picks winning.

The overall champs were Scott Feinberg (Feinberg Files, The Envelope) and me with 13 out of 15 correct. Scott edged me out on the movie side by correctly picking "Slumdog Millionaire" for the ensemble prize (as did five others), and being the only pundit to score a perfect 6/6. On the TV front, I foresaw Sally Field winning lead actress in a drama series for "Brothers & Sisters" to score 8/9. However, only Kevin Lewin (World Entertainment News Network) pulled off a perfect 9/9 on the TV front, as he was the only pundit to predict Hugh Laurie winning lead actor in a drama series for "House."

A quartet of us got five of our six movie picks right: Greg Ellwood (HitFix.com), Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly) and me. Another five of us got four correct: Brad Brevet (RopeOfSilicon.com), Marshall Fine (Star magazine, HollywoodAndFine.com), Peter Howell (Toronto Star), Michael Musto (Village Voice) and T.L. Stanley (Gold Rush, Hollywood Reporter).

Everyone else — Edward Douglas (Comingsoon.net), Elena Howe (The Envelope), Kevin Lewin (World Entertainment News Network, Kris Tapley (InContention.com), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Bob Tourtellotte (Reuters) and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today) — scored three out of six, with the exception of Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com) who got two right.

Brad Brevet, Elena Howe, Michael Musto, Kris Tapley and Jeffrey Wells did not offer TV picks. I followed right behind Kevin Lewin with eight correct while Edward Douglas, Scott Feinberg, Pete Hammond, Dave Karger, Peter Travers and Susan Wloszczyna all scored seven apiece. Those with six right were Greg Ellwood, Marshall Fine, Peter Howell and T.L. Stanley while Bob Tourtellotte got five correct.

The overall scores of the 13 pundits who dared to predict all 15 categories at the SAG Awards were can be seen in the chart at right.

All of us, with the exception of Kris Tapley, also offered a prediction of the top winner at last Saturday's PGA Awards. A dozen of us -- Brevet, Douglas, Fine, Howell, Karger, Lewin, Musto, O'Neil, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wells, Wloszczyna -- went with the winner "Slumdog Millionaire" while the rest backed "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button."

RELATED POSTS

Experts predict who'll win the Screen Actors Guild Awards

Experts predict the best picture winner at the Producers Guild of America Awards

Dave Karger tops at predicting Golden Globe winners

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"Slumdog Millionaire" has solidified its lead at the upcoming Academy Awards with a win for best ensemble at tonight's SAG Awards. That this cast of virtual and absolute unknowns from India (as well as a Brit, Dev Patel) could so impress the 100,000 members of the American-based Screen Actors Guild is evidence of the film's universal appeal.  In a way, it is not surprising that the notion of defying the odds -- as the young hero does in "Slumdog Millionaire" -- would prove irresistible to actors, many of whom struggle to make a living at their gypsy profession.

The SAG Awards have included an ensemble prize since their second year (1995). Over the ensuing 13 years, the Screen Actors Guild choice has matched up with the eventual Oscar-winning best picture only six times. Indeed, the SAG Award champ did not repeat at the Oscars until the fourth year of the award in 1998 when "Shakespeare in Love" took home both awards, surprising many an Oscarologist who expected "Saving Private Ryan" to win. Since then, "American Beauty" (1999), "Chicago" (2002), "Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" (2003), "Crash" (2005), and last year's "No Country for Old Men" have won both honors.

In the years when the SAG Awards ensemble prize went to a film other than the eventual Oscar champ, there was a more populist theme to it that, no doubt, influenced the votes of the union membership. The first three SAG champs were the modern-day heroes of "Apollo 13" over "Braveheart" (1995); the high-flying men of "The Birdcage" over "The English Patient" (1996); and the show-stopping strippers who delivered "The Full Monty" over "Titanic" (1997). That last winner, a feel-good film about down-on-their-luck English steelworkers, was scripted by Simon Beaufoy, who just happened to handle the adaptation of "Slumdog Millionaire."

Of the other four films that won at SAG but lost at the Oscars, two were top-heavy with acting talent -- "Traffic" (2000) and "Gosford Park" (2001), which prevailed over Russell Crowe vehicles "Gladiator" and "A Beautiful Mind," respectively -- and two were small ensemble pieces -- "Sideways" (2004) and "Little Miss Sunshine" (2006) -- that triumphed over star-studded ones "Million Dollar Baby" and "The Departed," respectively.

When "Slumdog Millionaire" won best ensemble cast at the SAG Awards, Anil Kapoor (who portrays the game show host) got so carried away at the podium thanking the guy who hired him — "the great genius," director Danny Boyle — the producers who signed his paychecks and the film's adorable child actors ("How can I forget the children?!"), he forgot the true great talent that make this movie magical: the guy who wrote it.

Why, oh, why do people always forget to give writers their due? "Slumdog Millionaire" is so brilliant because of the script by Simon Beaufoy, who adapted an inspiring bestselling book ("Q&A") by Indian novelist Vikas Swarup. That's the key source material. That's the story that makes viewers of this film so joyous. And it's told masterfully in a script by Beaufoy, who proved with his last Oscar-nominated screenplay, "The Full Monty," that he knows how to whip audiences into a frenzy when telling tales about the triumph of underdogs. Check out my video chat with both Beaufoy and Doyle in which Beaufoy explains his magic formula.

In case you didn't hear, two SAG Awards were bestowed before the start of the show tonight — the new ones for stunt work. They went to "The Dark Knight" (film) and "Heroes" (TV). No big surprises there, eh?

Hey, when Tina Fey won best TV comedy series female actor, didn't you feel cheated that she didn't trash our forum posters in her acceptance speech like she did at the Golden Globes? Ah, well, we got that cute baby story about Alice instead. Well, not quite a baby. Alice is 3 years old, in case you're wondering.

"30 Rock," of course, swept the comedy series board, claiming male actor (Alec Baldwin) and ensemble in addition to best actress. No big surprises there either, eh?

Lots of Oscarologists believe that a key factor in the upset of "Crash" over "Brokeback Mountain" as the Oscars' best picture of 2005 was the daredevil decision by Lionsgate to be the first studio ever to ship DVDs to all 100,000-plus members of the Screen Actors Guild voting for their awards.

The theory goes that to win best picture at the Oscars, you must win over the industry's actors because they are the largest branch within the academy. Maybe so, but that's an awful lot of waste — 98,700 DVDs shipped to non-academy members just to get the attention of the 1,300 SAG members who do belong the academy, but also get the regular DVD shipped to the full 5,800 AMPAS members separately. Sure, OK, that may not make a lot of sense, but there's another added benefit. Everybody knows that actors are blabbermouths. Win them over, some Oscar consultants think, and they'll help to build great industry buzz.

At the 2005 SAG Awards, "Crash" won the ensemble category, which some gurus (not me) think is a prophet foretelling of a big Oscar victory to come. In that case it was true, but I don't buy the theory in general.

Nonetheless, the shrewd DVD maneuver was copied the next year by "The Departed," "Venus," "The Queen" and "Little Miss Sunshine. Only "The Queen" and "Little Miss Sunshine" won SAG Awards - best actress to "The Queen" Helen Mirren and best cast ensemble to "Little Miss Sunshine". The ensemble prize, by the way, did not boost the latter to the top Oscar victory, of course. Best picture went to "The Departed," but that may have benefitted from its wide DVD blitz to members of the actors' guild.

Last year four movies blitzed SAG with DVDs: "Hairspray," "No Country for Old Men," "Into the Wild" and "3:10 to Yuma." Only "No Country" won SAG Awards (cast ensemble, supporting actor Javier Bardem). And "No Country" won best picture at the Oscars later, of course.

This year the only DVD sent to the full membership was "The Dark Knight," which isn't nominated for best picture at the Oscars. Miramax sent a promotional brochure for "Doubt" to all SAG members, but it didn't contain a disc.

In the 14-year history of the Screen Actors Guild Awards, 25 stars have taken home an Oscar after winning both the Actor (that's the actual name of SAG's statuette) and the Golden Globe while only five have failed to do so. With wins tonight, a trio of performers — Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler"), Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight" ) and Kate Winslet ("The Reader") — could solidify their leads at the Oscars.

Comeback kid Mickey Rourke, who took the lead actor (drama) Golden Globe for his performance in "The Wrestler," is favored to win tonight by only seven of our pundits. Another 10 have their money on Sean Penn to take home his first SAG Actor for "Milk."

However, the late Heath Ledger, who has won almost all the precursor awards, including the Golden Globe, for his supporting performance in "The Dark Knight," is expected to repeat again tonight by all 18 of our experts. Colin Farrell — surprise Globe winner for lead actor (musical/comedy) for his "In Bruges" performance — is not in competition at either of these award fests.

Likewise on the female front, Golden Globe-winner Sally Hawkins (for actress in musical/comedy) is not in the running anymore for her role in "Happy-Go-Lucky." And the bump up of Kate Winslet into lead actress at the Oscars for her performance in "The Reader" complicates our SAG calculations.

This role won Winslet the supporting actress award at the Golden Globes and she contends in that same category tonight; she is favored to win by 10 of our experts. However, only six of us expect her to repeat her Golden Globe triumph as lead actress (drama) with a win tonight for "Revolutionary Road." Nine of us predict Meryl Streep will win her first movie SAG award for "Doubt." (Streep has lost five individual bids and been part of three losing ensembles.) Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married") and Melissa Leo ( "Frozen River") each picked up a pair of endorsements.

Last year, Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood") and Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men") threepeated while Julie Christie ("Away From Her") did not. Though still sexy at sixtysomething, Julie Christie could not match the babe factor of Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose"), who had won the Golden Globe for best actress musical/comedy. And Christie did not tirelessly campaign, as did Cotillard.

The other four players in that losing fivesome also had factors that went against them at the Academy Awards. Two years ago, Eddie Murphy was riding high with wins for his tour de force performance in "Dreamgirls," but the February release of "Norbit" reminded Oscar voters of his true talent, and they gave the supporting actor trophy to veteran Alan Arkin ("Little Miss Sunshine"). Perhaps Murphy took solace in his record three acting Razzie Awards for "Norbit."

In 2002, Renée Zellweger won the comedy/musical Globe and Actor for "Chicago" but lost the Oscar by a nose to Nicole Kidman ("The Hours"), who had won the drama Globe. She fell victim to the longstanding preference of Oscar voters for dramatic performances over those in comedies and musicals but had her revenge the following year when she won all three awards for playing a hillbilly in "Cold Mountain" while that film's star, Kidman, only got a Globe nom.

Last year, "No Country for Old Men" won best picture at the Oscars after it became only the second movie ever to win the top prizes from all four leading showbiz guilds: producers, directors, writers and actors (ensemble award). Which of the four films below is the only one that pulled off that accomplishment earlier? See the answer here!

Hey, where's Robert "Rob L" Licuria? He hasn't responded to my challenge to take on fellow forums moderator Chris "Boomer" Beachum in a new matchup to predict who'll win the Screen Actors Guild Awards this Sunday night. Recently, Boomer whacked Rob in a clash over predicting the most Oscar nominations, but, hey, he was just evening the score. Back in September Rob crushed Boomer when they went at it over who'd win the Primetime Emmys. Hey, Rob — you finally battle weary?

OK, I'll take ya on, Boomer! Unfortunately, for the sake of drama — and isn't that what showbiz is all about? — we don't disagree on many categories, but I'll come out swinging where I see a weak spot. We must, after all, keep Derbyites entertained as well as informed.

See a list of gutsy SAG AWARDS predix from other top pundits who shared their views with Gold Derby. Also, check out this a list of celebrities appearing as SAG Awards presenters.

BEST FILM ACTOR
Sean Penn, "Milk" — Tom
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler" — Boomer

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY — After the Globe win, it just seems like Rourke is on a roll picking up trophies for this performance.  I think SAG Awards voters will especially identify with his story of a fallen actor making his comeback.  Remember, though, that longtime respected actor Sean Penn has never won a SAG Award (he was upset by Johnny Depp the year he won his Oscar), so he is still a threat here. If a veteran character actor like Frank Langella can pick up an upset win this Sunday, he would definitely boost his Oscar chances in late February.

TOM'S COMMENTARY — You're right about one thing, Boomer. Whoever wins here will get a hefty push in the Oscars derby considering the academy is mailing out final ballots three days later. But it won't be Rourke. "The Wrestler" ($6.8 million U.S. box office) wasn't as widely seen as "Milk" ($20 million) by the 100,000 members of SAG who didn't get DVD screeners of either. Yes, guild members obviously have issues with the smug Mr. Penn as evidenced by his snub for "Mystic River," but "Milk" is about a subject of extraordinary, passionate interest to members of the acting community: gay rights. I think Penn gets a free ride thanks to that.

BEST FILM ACTRESS
Meryl Streep, "Doubt" - Boomer, Tom

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY - Streep has a SAG Award in a television category for "Angels in America," but has never won here for her film work. Now is the time.

TOM'S COMMENARY - I agree that Streep wins. Imagine yourself as an actor who takes the "craft" very, very seriously. You're looking over your ballot with the list of contenders here and Streep's name demands to be checked off. Sister Aloysius is Streep's flashiest, most heavenly performance in years and, besides, if you don't bow in reverence, she'll crack your knuckles good with a ruler. Hey, she's also mother superior. She outranks the mere novitiates among rivals, but two pose devilish threats: Anne Hathaway and Kate Winslet.

BEST SUPPORTING FILM ACTOR
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight" - Boomer, Tom

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY - No question at all about this category.  Ledger will pick up a well-deserved award in an emotional moment Sunday night.

TOM'S COMMENTARY - While I agree with your conclusion, Boomer, I take aim at your strong assertion that there is "no question" here. Forget the journalists' awards like Los Angeles Film Critics Association and Golden Globes for a sec. SAG is our first view of how the movie industry will vote on a posthumous contender. History shows that these voters have often tossed out the dead rather mercilessly in the past. Only one deceased star has ever won an Oscar out of six previous nominees (Peter Finch, "Network") and none at the SAG Awards where only one has been nominated (Massimo Troisi, "Il Postino"). The Screen Actors Guild has been bestowing competitive prizes since 1994.

However, things are a bit different in SAG's TV races where there were two posthumous nominees, both of whom won: Jaul Julia ("The Burning Season") and Jerry Orbach ("Law & Order"). So that bodes well for Ledger.

BEST SUPPORTING FILM ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, "The Reader" - Boomer, Tom

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY - Yes, she is nominated in a different category at the Oscars, but I think Winslet will win this SAG supporting award Sunday on a path to picking up the lead acting Academy Award next month.  This has happened before when Benicio del Toro won lead at SAG but supporting at the Oscars for his role in "Traffic".

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
"Milk" - Boomer
"Doubt" - Tom

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY -  This is a tough category to predict. "Slumdog Millionaire" is the overwhelming favorite to win the best picture award at the Oscars, but it is such an unknown cast that it probably will not win this ensemble category.  "Benjamin Button" seems more of a technical achievement than one for its ensemble.  Don't count out "Doubt" (which has all 4 actors also nominated individually) or the well-known actors from "Frost/Nixon," but I think this is the spot for "Milk" to win one last big award this season.

TOM'S COMMENTARY - The huge gay vote within SAG could swing this to "Milk," but I think there are even more snobs within the guild. "Doubt" is based upon a Tony Awards-sweeping Broadway play. It showcases the talents of such industry gods as Streep and Hoffman mugging to the max. It would be sacrilege to vote against it

BEST ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE/MINI
Paul Giamatti, "John Adams" - Boomer, Tom

BEST ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE/MINI
Laura Linney, "John Adams" - Boomer, Tom

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY - Just don't go against anybody from "John Adams" when predicting these two categories.  For that reason, it is interesting that both Paul Giamatti and Tom Wilkinson are finally up against each other for this miniseries.  I'll go with Giamatti, though, since the entire project is about his character.

On Sunday night the Screen Actors Guild will bestow awards that often foretell the Oscars' winners. This year they may have extraordinary impact since the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences will mail out final Oscar ballots next Wednesday — just three days after SAG winners get a chance to put on a truly winning performance at the podium.

To predict the SAG Awards results, we've pooled the views of top pundits: Brad Brevet (RopeOfSilicon.com), Edward Douglas (Comingsoon.net), Greg Ellwood (HitFix.com), Scott Feinberg (Feinberg Files, The Envelope), Marshall Fine (Star magazine, HollywoodAndFine.com), Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Elena Howe (The Envelope), Peter Howell (Toronto Star), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Kevin Lewin (World Entertainment News Network), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Bob Tourtellotte (Reuters), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), T.L. Stanley (Gold Rush, Hollywood Reporter), Kris Tapley (InContention.com), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today) and me.

See which celebs will be presenting the trophies at the SAG Awards. Also, check out which film these pundits predict will win best picture from the Producers Guild of America.

BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor" — Howe
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk" — Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Karger, Musto, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers
Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler" — Brevet, Douglas, Howell, Lewin, Tapley, Wells, Wloszczyna

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married" — Douglas, Lewin
Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River" — Fine, Tourtellotte
Meryl Streep, "Doubt" — Brevet, Ellwood, Feinberg, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Musto, O'Neil, Tapley
Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road" — Howe, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wells, Wloszczyna

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, "Milk"
Robert Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight" — Brevet, Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howe, Howell, Karger, Lewin, Musto, O'Neil, Stanley, Tapley Travers, Wells, Wloszczyna
Dev Patel, "Slumdog Millionaire"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" — Fine, Howell, Stanley, Travers, Wells, Wloszczyna
Viola Davis, "Doubt" — Howe
Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" — Tourtellotte
Kate Winslet, "The Reader" — Brevet, Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Hammond, Karger, Lewin, Musto, O'Neil, Tapley

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE CAST
"Doubt" — Brevet, Ellwood, Musto, O'Neil, Travers, Wells
"Milk" — Douglas, Hammond, Karger, Tapley
"Frost/Nixon"
"Slumdog Millionaire" — Feinberg, Fine, Howe, Howell, Lewin, Stanley, Wloszczyna
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" — Tourtellotte

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE
"The Dark Knight" — Brevet, Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howe, Howell, Karger, O'Neil, Stanley, Travers, Tourtellotte, Wells, Wloszczyna
"Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull"
"Iron Man"
"Hellboy II: The Golden Army"
"Wanted" — Lewin

TELEVISION AWARDS

BEST ACTOR IN A TV DRAMA SERIES
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna
Hugh Laurie, "House M.D." — Lewin
William Shatner, "Boston Legal"
James Spader, "Boston Legal"

BEST ACTRESS IN A TV DRAMA SERIES
Sally Field, "Brothers & Sisters" — Lewin, O'Neil
Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU"
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace"
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" — Ellwood, Fine, Hammond, Karger, Tourtellotte
Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men" — Douglas, Feinberg, Howell, Stanley, Travers, Wloszczyna

BEST ACTOR IN A TV COMEDY SERIES
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna
Steve Carell, "The Office"
David Duchovny, "Californication"
Jeremy Piven, "Entourage"
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"

BEST ACTRESS IN A TV COMEDY SERIES
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?"
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty"
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds"
Tracy Ullman, "Tracy Ullman's State of the Union"

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST IN A TV DRAMA SERIES
"Boston Legal"
"The Closer"
"Mad Men" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna
"House"
"Dexter"

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST IN A TV COMEDY SERIES
"30 Rock" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Karger, Hammond, Howell, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Wloszczyna
"Desperate Housewives"
"Entourage" — Fine
"The Office"
"Weeds"

BEST ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE/MINI
Tom Wilkinson, "John Adams"
Ralph Fiennes, "Bernard and Doris"
Paul Giamatti, "John Adams" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna
Kiefer Sutherland, "24: Redemption"
Kevin Spacey, "Recount"

This year 18 of the 19 SAG acting nominees are repeating at the Oscars. Since double SAG nominee Kate Winslet was bumped up by the Oscars from supporting to lead for "The Reader," she was denied a lead nom for "Revolutionary Road." However, that film's Michael Shannon managed to knock SAG nominee Dev Patel of "Slumdog Millionaire" out of the supporting race.

Last year 15 of the 20 SAG nominees went on to compete at the Oscars. Two years ago, it was a staggering 19 of the 20 with the one variation coming from the same film — "The Departed" — as SAG nominee Leonardo DiCaprio was replaced at Oscar time by Mark Wahlberg.

Four of this year's five SAG-nominated ensembles appear in Oscar-nominated best pictures with SAG contender "Doubt" replaced by "The Reader." Last year only one SAG ensemble nominee — "No Country for Old Men" — made it into the best-picture race, although that film won both awards. Two years ago it was three of five, with "Little Miss Sunshine" taking the SAG prize, but losing the top Oscar to "The Departed."

All five of the lead actress nominees are competing for both awards, though Kate Winslet contends at the Oscars for "The Reader" rather than "Revolutionary Road." Last year, it was four of five as the only SAG nominee not needing a babysitter come Oscar night was Angelina Jolie ("A Mighty Heart") whose spot went to "The Savages" star Laura Linney.

The supporting actress race matches up four to five as the promotion of Kate Winslet for "The Reader" left room at the Oscars for the addition of Marisa Tomei ("The Wrestler"). Last year, this race was also four for five with SAG nominee Catherine Keener ("Into the Wild") replaced by Saoirse Ronan of "Atonement."

Lead actor matched up perfectly. Last year, it went three for five with SAG nominees and relative newcomers Emile Hirsch ("Into the Wild") and Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") replaced by Hollywood vets Johnny Depp ("Sweeney Todd") and Tommy Lee Jones ("In the Valley of Elah").

And, as mentioned, the supporting race is four for five with Shannon replacing Patel. Last year SAG nominee Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country") was replaced by Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War").

The DGA picks for best director matched up with four of the five academy choices as DGA nominee Christopher Nolan ("The Dark Knight") was edged out at the Oscars by Stephen Daldry ("The Reader"). Daldry has only helmed three films and has Oscar nods for all of them, the previous two being "Billy Elliot" (2000) and "The Hours" (2002). Last year, DGA nominee Sean Penn ("Into the Wild") lost his Oscar slot to Jason Reitman who helmed best pic nominee "Juno."

The PGA nominees for best picture also went four for five with the Oscar contenders as "The Dark Knight" was bumped by "The Reader." Last year, it was also four for five with PGA nominee "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" replaced by "Atonement."

The WGA nods for original screenplay were shut out save for Dustin Lance Black and his script for "Milk." Last year they lined up with the Oscar nominees except for "Knocked Up" which was knocked out of the competition by the team who whipped up "Ratatouille." However, the adapted screenplay race went four for five with only the WGA nominees for "The Dark Knight" bumped by David Hare, who adapted "The Reader." Last year Sean Penn, who wowed the WGA with his adaptation of "Into the Wild," was snubbed by the Oscars as was the scripter for "Zodiac." They were replaced by "Atonement" adapter Christopher Hampton and first time writer-director Sarah Polley.

The ASC choices for best cinematography lined up with the Oscar nominees except for "Revolutionary Road" shooter Roger Deakins, who was replaced by Tom Stern for "Changeling." Last year the ASC went five for five.

The ACE picks for best editing match those of the Oscars. Last year ACE nominee "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" was replaced by "Michael Clayton."