Two TV shows produced by NBC Universal are curiously missing from the Emmy campaign DVD mailer the studio recently sent to voters: Jay Leno's disastrous foray into prime-time ("The Jay Leno Show") and the program that took its place later each night ("The Tonight Show With Conan O'Brien").

But that doesn't mean both will be missing from the Emmy ballot. No, "The Jay Leno Show" hasn't been officially submitted for best variety series, but — surprise — "The Tonight Show With Conan O'Brien" has, and it will compete against "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno" — plus "Late Night With Jimmy Fallon," starring the host of the Emmy ceremony on Aug. 29.

"In the DVD campaign packages, typically we do not include shows that aren't returning," says Curt King, senior VP of Universal Media Studios. "In the race for best variety series, Conan decided to submit 'The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien' and we decided to enter 'The Tonight Show with Jay Leno for Jay.'"

All of those programs will compete against three formidable foes, which have all submitted official entry forms to the TV academy: "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart," which has won the category for the last seven years in a row; "The Colbert Report," which is overdue to win (it's got an excellent chance to prevail this year thanks to an episode it plans to submit to Emmy jurors — Colbert's hilarious trip to Iraq); and "The Mo'Nique Show," starring the "Precious" actress who swept the last film awards derby (New York Film Critics Circle to Oscars) undefeated.

All of the above-mentioned programs will compete against one show that they don't need to worry about: "Real Time With Bill Maher." Not only has it failed to win a single Emmy, even in the crafts categories, but Maher is the new Susan Lucci — the biggest loser in the history of TV's top award, with 22 defeats and no wins for producing, writing and performance.

It took Conan O'Brien a full decade of hosting "Late Night" before the show landed its first Emmy bid in the variety comedy music series category in 2003. It contended unsuccessfully in that race for five years, always losing to "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart," which O'Brien will now face head-on in the ratings when he launches his new chat fest on TBS. In both 2008 and 2009, "Late Night" lost its slot in the list of nominees to the resurgent "Saturday Night Live," while "The Daily Show" kept winning.

O'Brien and his scribes finally won an Emmy in the writing category in 2007 after being also-rans every year from 1996 to 2004 and then again in 2006. That was the only Emmy won by "Late Night" out of 29 nominations, including two more bids for writing in 2008 and 2009. In 2008, the "Late Night" writers lost to the team behind "The Colbert Report" and in 2009 to the scribes for "The Daily Show."

Prior to "The Daily Show" owning the series category, "Late Show With David Letterman" won that award five years in a row beginning in 1998. The CBS late-night talk show hosted by David Letterman has competed in the top Emmy race every year since its debut season in 1994, when it won. In addition, it has taken three technical Emmys for a total haul of nine awards out of 64 nominations.

Compare that with the track record of Jay Leno, who returned to the "Tonight Show" in March. While he may be beating longtime rival David Letterman once again in the ratings, don't expect Leno to contend anytime soon at the Emmys. After all, he and the show were snubbed by the Emmys for his (first) farewell tour last year. The last nomination for Leno's edition of the NBC staple was in 2005, when he contended for the now-defunct individual performance prize, losing to Tony Awards host Hugh Jackman.

Looks like Stephen Colbert will finally get the last laugh over his former Comedy Central mentor at the Emmys. Although "The Colbert Report" managed to beat "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart" for best writing in a variety series in 2008, no program's been able to beat "The Daily Show" for best variety series over the last seven years. ("The Colbert Report" was nominated against it four times.) In August, "The Colbert Report" could win both trophies based on what's inside the Emmy campaign box recently shipped to the 14,000 members of the TV academy.

Campaign episodes tend to be the same ones submitted later to judges who determine winners. "The Colbert Report" just launched an Emmy weapon of mass destruction: its visit to U.S. troops in Iraq, where Colbert went through boot camp. It's not only hilarious, but it also features guest appearances by President Obama and Sen. John McCain. Best scene: Commander-in-chief Obama orders Gen. Raymond Odierno to give Colbert a buzz haircut. You can see the result in a photo below, where Colbert sits with soldiers in the audience.

See the full "Colbert Report" episode here, which is located at Comedy Central's FYC site. What's odd is that the site features a different episode of "The Daily Show" than the one inside the Emmy box. Which one will "Daily Show" ultimately submit to judges in the Emmy war over best variety series? We've asked the network's Emmy chiefs and await response. And what do Emmy-watchers think of the race? Read the reax of our forum posters.

"Lean and mean" is how Comedy Central describes this year's Emmy box. It's just like last year's package (two DVDs in one slender plastic case), which was far more modest than the one sent to voters in 2008.

Current contents:

DISK 1:

"The Daily Show With Jon Stewart" -- Oct. 12, 2009 (Mike Huckabee guest)

"The Colbert Report" -- Stephen Colbert entertains troops in Iraq

"The Sarah Silverman Project" -- When Sarah grows a mustache, her sister tells Sarah that she was born a hermaphrodite.

"Important Things With Demetri Martin" -- "Attention"

Emmy season is no joke to Comedy Central. This year, they shipped their Emmy campaign package to all 13,000 members of the TV academy a few weeks earlier than last year. It just arrived in the mailboxes of voters early this week. It's more modest than last year's campaign box, but it contains these goodies:

EMMY DISC NO. 1
"The Colbert Report" (episode 5023), "Important Things with Demetri Martin" (101), "Krod Mandoon and the Flaming Sword of Fire" (1), "Sarah Silverman Program" (210), "Reno 911" (513)

EMMY DISC NO. 2
"The Daily Show" (13112), "Indecision 2008: America's Choice," "A Colbert Christmas: The Greatest Gift of All"

"The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" is Comedy Central's big Emmy darling. It's won 11 Emmys, including the past six consecutive contests for best variety series. Spin-off "The Colbert Report" is giving Stewart's gang some Emmy angst, though. Last year "The Colbert Report" beat "Daily Show" for best writing. Hmmmm. Now can it get the last laugh as best variety show this year?

Comedy Central's Emmy package is the second sent this season by a TV network. Showtime sent the first Emmy package back in early March.

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On the same day that Jon Stewart smacked down "Mad Money" host Jim Cramer on "The Daily Show" in a moment of must-see TV, came word that the  academy was eliminating the Emmy for individual performance in a variety series or special from the lineup this year. The powers that be are now going to include performers in the slate of nominated producers for those series and specials that make the cut. This move will cut down on the amount of hardware for which people like Jon Stewart, who is already a credited producer of "The Daily Show," can contend. The show has won the Emmy for best variety series for the past six years running.

For his work as the host of "The Daily Show," Jon Stewart lost his bids for the individual performance Emmy in 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2007. Competing in this catch-all category, he was bested by two singers (Sting in 2002 and Tony Bennett in 2007), a comedian (Wayne Brady for "Whose Line Is It Anyway?" in 2003), and an awards host (Hugh Jackman for the Tonys in 2005). Last year, Stewart was not nominated for his daily work but was a contender for hosting the Oscars. He lost to Don Rickles who won his first Emmy for the HBO documentary "Mr. Warmth: The Don Rickles Project."

Stephen Colbert, a one-time correspondent for "The Daily Show," also lost this individual Emmy for his first three years of hosting "The Colbert Report." When Colbert lost his first race in 2006 to Barry Manilow for the special "Music and Passion," he memorably fumed about it to Stewart later during that same Emmycast. He would go to find comedy fodder in this defeat on many an episode of "The Colbert Report," one of which even included an appearance by Manilow. Take a listen to Stephen Colbert as he talked to us last summer about his Emmy wins (three for writing "The Daily Show") and losses. While he too would lose to Don Rickles at the then-upcoming Emmys, he and his team at "The Colbert Report" did win the writing award for the first time.

Below, highlights of the Stewart smackdown with Cramer. The full clip is here.

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Yesterday I emailed a gang of my blogger cohorts who track the Oscars derby and asked: "Who agrees with me that Will Smith would make the bestest Oscars host? Let's start the drum beat! "

Among the people I cc'd in the email: David Carr (NYTimes.com), Scott Feinberg (AndTheWinnerIs), Lou Lumenick (NYPost.com), T.L. Stanley (HollywoodReporter.com), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily.com), Kris Tapley (InContention.com), Anne Thompson (Variety.com), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com). And YOU gentle reader can jump in and vote in our Envelope poll HERE.

SASHA STONE: Ricky Gervais. Will Smith might feel compelled to rap the opening number. He might even call Jada and the kids out to rap along. Ricky Gervais, Steve Carell, Jon Stewart or Stephen Colbert.

ANNE THOMPSON: "1.) Steve Martin, 2.) Billy Crystal, 3.) Jon Stewart. Gervais can't even open a movie. I have fantasies of Hugh Jackman doing a musical medley at the top of the show. With the new producers I hope the show will continue to be classy and insider smart. Smith might be fine but don't think his stardom necessarily changes the equation. The movies need to be popular, like 'Dark Knight.'" READ MORE

SCOTT FEINBERG: "I agree 100% that Smith would be great, but why on Earth would he do it? He's on top of the world right now, so why put himself out there? An Oscar host hasn't been able to generate good reviews from the majority of critics or good ratings from viewers in years. I'm afraid it's as thankless a job as being president these days! What do you think about the Gervais buzz, though? I think it would be worth the gamble for him, as someone who is a revered comedian in the UK but who is a much lesser-known quantity in the US, and I suspect he would be very good! "

LOU LUMENICK: "No, no, no to Will Smith; he's becoming the new Tom Cruise. If the new producers really want to think outside the box, I say Kal Penn and John Cho. The latter is a killer impressionist; he does the best Brando I've ever seen on the new Godfather box set."

DAVID CARR: "Colbert. Hands down. Genially savage appearance at WHCD should put everyone on notice that it won't be pretty, but will be pretty funny."

KRIS TAPLEY: "I've always thought Nathan Lane would be a great outside-the-box choice."

T.L. STANLEY: "Not that I don't love me some Fresh Prince, but he's broken my heart with all the Scientology shiznit, though people outside of NY/LA probably couldn't care less about that. I'm not convinced he'd be the right choice. Jon Stewart: played out, obviously. Carell? Good. Colbert? Better." READ MORE

TOM O'NEIL: "Will Smith will haul in the most eyeballs, which the Oscars desperately need. Ricky Gervais would be socko, but, as a draw, he's a zero. Jon Stewart? You're kidding, right? Maybe so he can co-host with David Letterman and Chris Rock? Do we believe that there's death in threes? Stewart's hosted twice so far, let's recall."

SASHA STONE: "Recall, are you kidding? There is only one way to save the Oscars. Nominate films people have seen and are invested in. "Titanic," "Gladiator," "Return of the King," "The Dark Knight." No one cares about the host. Well, unless they're reality TV show hosts and then it's like the Sarah Palin of hosts: you didn't know how bad it could be until you saw how bad it could be. Will Smith is still trying to rescue his film career. He wants to be Denzel Washington not Billy Crystal. Steve Carell."

OK, you've seen who all of the experts predict will win the Emmys (CLICK HERE), including me, but you haven't yet seen my careful breakdown of all contenders in each top category. Below: Gold Derby's racetrack odds. Please note: they're issued for entertainment purposes only and should not be used for gambling. Missing are the two reality races, but soon I'll add those odds too. Right now I haven't finished watching all of the episodes each nominee submitted to Emmy judges as samples of their best work.

My evaluations rely heavily on episode submissions. For example, note that I think "Saturday Night Live" is a real threat to "The Daily Show," which has won best variety series five years in a row. Granted, "SNL" hasn't won since 1993 and I still put "Daily Show" out front, but "SNL" submitted the same blockbuster episode that's likely to pay off with a win for Amy Poehler as best supporting actress: Tina Fey's return as host. Jon Stewart's episode is fantastic too — it's 20 minutes of ranting against the White House (of course) followed by a brief, fun chat with Judd Apatow.

But I don't think, like many of my peers, that Tina Fey will win best comedy actress. Three of her opponents submitted episodes that involved some element of split personality and that usually pays off with a victory. (Never again wonder how Lindsay Wagner won best drama actress for "The Bionic Woman" in 1977 — that's when she suddenly discovered her evil twin, remember?) In this year's derby, America Ferrera goes bonkers when sprayed with a poisoned perfume, Christina Applegate goes psycho when she hears the song "We've Got the Beat" on the radio and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, pumped up on testosterone, threatens to kick the "sorry, tanned, bleach-blonde, Botoxed" butts of rival school moms. The reason I give the best odds to Ferrera is because she stars in a one-hour program. The longest shows usually win — as Ferrera proved last year.

To see a full list of all episode submissions, CLICK HERE. Click through the subsequent pages of that forum to read the predix of our posters based upon what they think of those episodes. If you're curious to see what episodes were entered at past Emmy derbies, CLICK HERE. Remember: actors submit one sample episode; ditto for contenders for best variety and reality series. Nominees for best comedy and drama submit six that are paired off into three groupings that are randomly submitted to voters. Actors vote on actors, writers on writers, everybody gets to vote in the program categories. Roughly 250 to 300 voters volunteer to judge submissions in the races for best comedy and drama series. The typical acting category has about 50 to 75 judges.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Mad Men" - 5/4
"Damages" - 7/5
"Lost" - 8/1
"House" - 9/1
"Dexter" - 10/1
"Boston Legal" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"30 Rock" - 1/3
"The Office" - 8/5
"Entourage" - 20/1
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" - 30/1
"Two and a Half Men" - 40/1

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" - 2/1
James Spader, "Boston Legal" - 11/5
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - 13/5
Hugh Laurie, "House" - 8/1
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" - 8/1
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" - 35/1
(NOTE: I changed this prediction from James Spader to Bryan Cranston on Sept. 19.)

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close, "Damages" - 2/1
Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: S.V.U." - 3/1
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" - 7/2
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace" - 4/1
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" - 9/2

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" - Even
Steve Carell, "The Office" - 5/2
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" - 7/2
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" - 6/1
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" - 2/1
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" - 7/3
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine" - 5/2
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" - 3/1
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" - 50/1

BEST MINISERIES
"John Adams" - 1/2
"Cranford" - 7/5
"Tin Man" - 30/1
"The Andromeda Strain" - 40/1

"The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" has won the Emmy for best variety series five years in a row, but our awards guru Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) believes that it'll soon be usurped by "Saturday Night Live," which last won the category in 1993. Acting much more prudent, Chris "Boomer" Beachum is sticking with "The Daily Show." But, hey: no guts, no glory! Go for it, I say, Rob! You do build a persuasive argument below.

BEST VARIETY SERIES: ROB'S RANKING
1. "Saturday Night Live"
2. "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart"
3. "Late Night with Letterman"
4. "The Colbert Report"
5. "Real Time with Bill Maher"

ROB'S COMMENTARY: I have a sneaking feeling that "SNL" is going to continue its resurgence this year by taking this award, for the first time in years and breaking the perennial Daily Show stranglehold on this category. It includes Emmy's most-feted performer this year (Tina Fey) front and center, and has also managed an Amy Poehler nod in the supporting-actress race. This is an early call, mind you, but I'm looking for an upset here. All I do know is that Bill Maher will sit this one out. Again.

VARIETY SERIES: BOOMER'S RANKING
1.  "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart"
2.  "The Colbert Report"
3. "Saturday Night Live"
4.  "Late Show with David Letterman"
5.  "Real Time with Bill Maher"

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: Until it loses, I must continue to predict "The Daily Show." There has been no indication from Emmy voters they are ready to annoint something else yet.  My personal preference would be for "Colbert" to finally prevail.  "SNL" has submitted one of its very best episodes in years ("Tina Fey/Carrie Underwood") but probably can't overtake these other two shows right now.  I don't think Letterman or Maher have a prayer.

(NBC, Comedy Central)

Stephen Colbert gives his former boss Jon Stewart cold-hearted news about the upcoming Emmys in today's podcast chat with Gold Derby.

It's cold-shoulder time if the program where Colbert used to toil as a writer — Stewart's "The Daily Show" — beats "The Colbert Report" again for best variety series, as it has for the past two years.

"I've told Jon, 'No more kisses if you win!'" Stephen Colbert confides to us. (CLICK HERE to Download the MP3 File and listen to the chat. NOTE: You may need to hold down your computer's control key while clicking.)

But Stephen Colbert also competes for the Emmy for best individual performance in a variety show, which he's lost twice to music legends — Barry Manilow in 2006 and Tony Bennett in 2007.

When Colbert lost to Manilow, he memorably fumed about it to Stewart later during that same Emmycast and made a big deal about it on subsequent episodes of "The Colbert Report," one of which included an appearance by Manilow.

"I was afraid this year that Paul Anka was going to be nominated," Colbert tells us, but this year he only competes against comedians — one of them a comic icon who was never nominated in the past.

"This year it's Don Rickles," he predicts. "It's all Rickles because it's a sympathy vote and I will tell you why. It's because his last name sounds like a degenerative, 19th century disease. 'Oh, you have to give it to him! The man's got rickles! Isn't that what happened to FDR? Didn't he have rickles as a child?'"

However, Colbert rushes to add: "Nothing would make me happier than to lose to Don Rickles — except maybe beat Don Rickles."

But Colbert also competes in that Emmy category against Stewart, who is nominated for hosting the Oscarcast — to mixed reviews. What does Colbert think about the negative reax to Stewart's emcee gig?

"I don't think you can win" when you host the Oscars, he says. "Everyone is the subject of unwarranted criticism when they do the show. I think people revel in the judgment of the host."

KEEP READING - CLICK HERE!