Our Emmy experts Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Rob Licuria (AwardsHeaven) already wrote out their analysis of the race for best supporting drama actor. Below we dish the contest further in this webcam video. They agree on two things: 1) John Slattery ("Mad Men") and Martin Short ("Damages") have no shot to win and 2) any one of the other four contenders could prevail. They are Andre Braugher ("Men of a Certain Age'), Michael Emerson ("Lost"), Terry O'Quinn ("Lost") and Aaron Paul ("Breaking Bad"). When pressed to forecast a winner, Boomer picks Braugher, Rob chooses O'Quinn. Also watch Rob and Boomer's video slugfest over who'll win best supporting drama actress.
BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX 1. Terry O'Quinn ("Lost") 2. Michael Emerson ("Lost") 3. Aaron Paul ("Breaking Bad") 4. Martin Short ("Damages") 5. John Slattery ("Mad Men") 6. John Goodman ("Treme")
Alternates: Campbell Scott ("Damages"), Chris Noth ("The Good Wife").
ROB'S COMMENTARY: Now that we know O'Quinn is submitting his name, I think it is safe to say that only he and Emerson will be representing from the "Lost" cast. It would be great to also see Daniel Dae Kim, Naveen Andrews and especially Josh Holloway, but I think two actors will fulfill the "Lost" quota (unfortunately). Paul will return as will Slattery, and Short will fill that "Damages" slot (with Scott a real threat for a second "Damages" nod here too). I am going out on a limb, not having seen HBO's "Treme" yet, thinking that Goodman might surprise here. This is a killer category, with lots of choices for voters to mull over. Let's hope they get creative.
Among all of the "Lost" cliffhangers looming as the past Emmy champ as best drama series (2006) airs its final TV episodes, fans wonder: Will Terry O'Quinn (winner, supporting actor in a drama, 2007) return to the derby after bowing out last year? And, if so, will he go lead or supporting? His role as the demonic "Man in Black" during the show's final season has been so prominent that he could certainly opt to jump up to the lead race.
But several months after Terry O'Quinn won in 2007, he told viewers of "The View" that he might not leap into any Emmy race: "My view was that, when you win an Emmy for a role, you ought to be ineligible for it again – for a while – maybe for a year or two or maybe not at all – till you get another role."
Apparently, O'Quinn now believes enough time has passed since his victory. He's rejoining the derby – and going supporting. He told our forums moderator Chris "Boomer" Beachum that he's going supporting because "all roles are supporting … whatever one calls them."
"I'm happy Terry's back in the race," cheers our other forums moderator Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net). "He's the favorite."
Boomer notes that O'Quinn lived up to his promise to step aside after winning, "but obviously decided to take one last shot since the show is going off the air. He also has somewhat of a loophole in his theory since he isn't exactly playing 'John Locke' anymore. His character technically died and that body is inhabited by a dark possibly evil character usually called the 'Man in Black.'"
Here are the opinions of two of our forum posters. MissyGal says, "Well, that solidifies that O'Quinn and Michael Emerson will land supporting nods. As this point, I can't see O'Quinn losing." Hodag129 confesses, "Mixed feelings ... This essentially kills any shot Josh Holloway had at getting a nom. There's just too many other great supporting actors I cant see Lost getting 3 noms in this category. Unless Holloway does something amazing here in the finale and gets a lot of buzz."
O'Quinn's return to the Emmy supporting race sets up a sensitive clash: He'll compete against costar Michael Emerson, who won last year. Other strong contenders include 2009 nominees Aaron Paul ("Breaking Bad") and John Slattery ("Mad Men"). Patrick Dempsey ("Grey's Anatomy") and Vincent Kartheiser ("Mad Men") are also hefty contenders plus newcomers John Goodman ("Treme"), Craig T. Nelson ("Parenthood"), Chris Noth ("The Good Wife") and Campbell Scott and Martin Short ("Damages").
Below, watch O'Quinn's appearance on "The View" in 2008 when he voiced his plan to bow out of the derby. The discussion begins about five minutes into this clip.