"30 Rock" has not only triumphed as Emmy's best comedy series for the last two years, it's never lost and may be unbeatable. Two reasons: it's a shrewdly crafted satire (arguably, it actually deserves to win) and Emmy voters are TV industry insiders who can't resist its devilish take on their own workaday world. You must wonder: at some point, won't voters finally get bored with it winning every year, rebel and pick something else? Reality check: "Frasier" won this slot five years in a row and it wasn't even about the TV biz. It was about the radio biz — in Seattle.

Both of our Emmy seers Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) think, like I do, that "30 Rock" is a shoo-in to prevail again. Below, more of their reasoning and handicapping.

BEST COMEDY SERIES: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1.) "30 Rock"
2.) "The Office"
3.) "Entourage"
4.) "How I Met Your Mother"
5.) "Family Guy"
6.) "Flight of the Conchords"
7.) "Weeds"
 
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: Unlike some of the acting categories, I think it's a done deal that "30 Rock" will pick up its third consecutive Emmy in the top comedy race. First and foremost, they aced their episode choices with six of the absolute best and funniest of the season. Secondly, the biggest competition (and previous winner) is "The Office," which needed to be perfect in their episode choices to have a decent shot at a win. They did a great job except for the episode "Golden Ticket," which was just a mediocre selection.

I really don't believe any of the other shows have a realistic chance of winning this category.  Looking back over the past 40 years of the Emmys, only one show has won the comedy series award without having at least one directing or writing nomination (that was "Friends" in 2002, when it was the overwhelming favorite to win anyway). I love statistics when predicting, so for my purposes it effectively eliminates "Family Guy," "How I Met Your Mother" and "Weeds" from consideration since they don't have those other nominations.

A victory by either of the other two nominated series ("Entourage" or "Flight of the Conchords") would be the upset of a lifetime.

Congratulations to Tina Fey, Lorne Michaels and the rest of the "30 Rock" team on another well-deserved win!

BEST COMEDY SERIES: ROB'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1.) "30 Rock"
2.) "The Office"
3.) "Family Guy"
4.) "How I Met Your Mother"
5.) "Flight of the Conchords"
6.) "Weeds"
7.) "Entourage"

ROB'S COMMENTARY: I think Boomer's theory that a series is not likely to win in this category without directing and writing nominations is a good one. That being said, I have rearranged the list according to how I think each of the series might fare, depending on what I perceive to be their potential core fan base. Remember, with seven nominated series, any one of them would presumably need around 15% of the votes to scrape through with a win. My math is not the best, but you hopefully know what I'm getting at.

I think that it is safe to say that "30 Rock" will win this again. With a 22 nominations (a record for a comedy series), it is the industry favorite, probably the hottest comedy on TV and does not look like it can be beaten, regardless of what episodes it submitted to voters. In its favor is that it has submitted six of its very best ones, which will more than likely propel it to a repeat victory.

"30 Rock" has won best comedy series for the past two years and just set a record for scoring the most nominations ever by a comedy series (22), but it's not yet won the Emmy for directing. ("Pushing Daisies" won last year, "Ugly Betty" in 2007.)

This year it's got three nominations — half the category's total — but it will lose again according to our Emmy pundits Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (Awardsheaven.net), who agree on which other nominee will prevail. Below, their noodlings on this category.

BEST COMEDY DIRECTING: ROB'S PREDIX
1. Jeff Blitz, "The Office," "Stress Relief"
2. Millicent Shelton, "30 Rock," "Apollo, Apollo"
3. James Bobin, "Flight of the Conchords," "The Tough Brets"
4. Beth McCarthy, "30 Rock," "Reunion"
5. Todd Holland, "30 Rock," "Generalissimo"
6. Julian Farino, "Entourage," "Tree Trippers"

ROB'S COMMENTARY: Having three "30 Rock" episodes may hurt the chances of any of them, but if one of them is to get up, I am thinking "Apollo, Apollo" might. I regard it as the better episode. That being said, Beth McCarthy and Todd Holland are past Emmy winners, so that might come into play with the peer-group voting in this category.

The "Conchords" episode is a great example of excellent directing (funny musical numbers being the standout), and this might be the show's better chance for a surprise win. "Entourage" doesn't appear to be in this running this year.

Finally, with only one episode in play, and what I regard as the best episode of "The Office" in the last two seasons, I think "The Office" might surprise a few and take this one. It's also an hour-long special episode, and the one that aired after the Super Bowl.

BEST COMEDY DIRECTING: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1. Jeff Blitz, "The Office," "Stress Relief"
2. Millicent Shelton, "30 Rock," "Apollo, Apollo"
3. Julian Farino, "Entourage," "Tree Trippers"
4. James Bobin, "Flight of the Conchords," "The Tough Brets"
5. Todd Holland, "30 Rock," "Generalissimo"
6. Beth McCarthy, "30 Rock," "Reunion"

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: The single most memorable and hilarious segment of any series this past season was the fake fire started by Rainn Wilson at the beginning of "Stress Relief" from "The Office."  I just have to believe that the Emmy voters will want to reward that brilliant scene plus the CPR training, roast of Michael Scott and the rest of this funny episode.

Our forums moderators and crafty Emmy seers Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) agree that there are two front-runners in the Emmy race for best supporting comedy actor, but clash on which one is ahead. Boomer picks Rainn Wilson ("The Office"); Rob opts for Emmycast host Neil Patrick Harris ("How I Met Your Mother").

They also disagree on who could be the spoiler. Boomer warns us about Tracy Morgan ("30 Rock"), while Rob is leery of Jon Cryer ("Two and a Half Men").

It's important to note that these assessments are based on close scrutiny of the same material being viewed by Emmy judges: the episodes chosen by nominees as samples of their best work from the last TV season. Each contender picks one, which is noted in parentheses in the lists below.

BEST SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTOR: ROB L'S PREDIX
1) Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother" ("Benefits")
2) Rainn Wilson, "The Office" ("Heavy Competition")
3) Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men" ("Sir Lancelot's Litterbox")
4) Tracy Morgan, "30 Rock" ("The Funcooker")
5) Jack McBrayer, "30 Rock" ("The Bubble")
6) Kevin Dillon, "Entourage" ("Tree Trippers")

ROB L'S COMMENTARY: As with every category, the eventual winner will depend on whether voters watch the episode submissions (like they are supposed to) and base their vote on that, or whether voters read through the nominated actors and tick off a name based on other factors, such as popularity, that intangible "buzz factor," or maybe a sense that the actor in mind is overdue for recognition.

I think Neil Patrick Harris chose wisely with his submission, and don't quite understand why some tend to think it is not as strong as it could be. He has enough screen time to make a lasting impression, is very likable and has some very funny scenes. He is what I have been calling a scene stealer ever since this show began a few years ago. Coupled with him being all over the airwaves as host of this awards show and that awards show, and a general sense that he should have won already (but for the Jeremy Piven three-peat), I think Harris is the well-deserved front-runner.

Rainn Wilson also submitted well -- his episode features his character front and center, and he really delivers the laughs. My only problem with this submission, and perhaps his character in general (both of which may hurt his chances for the win), is that Dwight Schrute is not as likable a character as Neil Patrick Harris' Barney Stinson has become -- and, in this episode, he doesn't allow the audience to really want to see him succeed in his quest to take Michael Scott down. Still, Wilson probably has never had a better shot, and it is still possible for him to fend off what is perceived in Emmyland as 2009 being Neil Patrick Harris' turn to grab the gold.

Special mention must go to Jon Cryer -- he has never had a better episode than this one as far as I'm concerned. I am not a big fan of this show, but I recognize funny when I see it, and Cryer is hysterical in this one -- likable (perhaps even pitiful) Allan suffers humiliation after humiliation, and takes a fair amount of pratfalls and bruises in this slapstick-fest. If voters feel like finally awarding Jon Cryer after a few fruitless nominations, then this might be the surprise of the category.

Tracy Morgan's nomination is probably a couple of years too late for me -- I didn't see much at all to be terribly excited about in his episode, and he doesn't really even benefit from any scenes in Jack McBrayer's episode to really warrant having a genuine shot at the win this time around. Similarly, McBrayer doesn't really deliver the laughs and likability needed to topple the favorites in this category in his episode. A win by either of the "30 Rock" gentlemen would be more about a "30 Rock" sweep as far as I'm concerned, and I am not even sure whether either of them would have enough "30 Rock" votes anyway, given that fans of the show have two actors to choose from (the dreaded “vote split” theory).

Finally, this will almost certainly not be Kevin Dillon's year. In his episode submission, he doesn't do anything Emmy-worthy to warrant the other guys in this category being worried about an upset. In fact, it is interesting that Jeremy Piven seems to outshine Dillon in the scenes they share in this episode, but he gets to sit this one out (probably because of Sushi-gate and perhaps voter fatigue).

Therefore, I am going with Neil Patrick Harris to finally win that Emmy that has so far eluded him.

BEST SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTOR: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1) Rainn Wilson, "The Office" ("Heavy Competition")
2) Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother" ("Benefits")
3) Tracy Morgan, "30 Rock" ("The Funcooker")
4) Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men" ("Sir Lancelot's Litterbox")
5) Jack McBrayer, "30 Rock" ("The Bubble")
6) Kevin Dillon, "Entourage" ("Tree Trippers")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY:What kind of judging panel will this category have?  If it has the type that rewards the best episode, there is absolutely no question that Rainn Wilson will win. He has the only submission with tons of screen time and the sort of over-the-top moments that traditionally win this category.

Cheer up, Amy Poehler fans. Just because some TV critics aren't wild about the pilot episode of "Parks and Recreation," her new sitcom debuting tonight on NBC, doesn't mean it can't rally in coming weeks — and at the upcoming Emmys. Many of the critics pooh-poohing "Parks and Recreation" as a weak imitation of  "The Office" — from the show's same creators, Greg Daniels and Mike Schur — are the same sourpusses who once dismissed NBC's "The Office" as a pale imitation of the hit British original starring Ricky Gervais. The re-tooled Yankee version of "The Office" got the last laugh, winning the Emmy for comedy series at the end of its first season (2005-2006).

"Parks and Recreation" has some quick catching up to do, being a mid-season, spring replacement series with just a handful of episodes airing before the end of the Emmy eligibility period (May 31), but that timing can also be beneficial, since it'll be fresh on voters' minds.

But the race for best comedy series is no laughing matter this year. Of the five nominees last year, "30 Rock" (winner in 2007 and 2008), "Entourage," "The Office" and "Two and a Half Men" look like good bets to return. "Curb Your Enthusiasm" isn't eligible. Which show will claim the remaining slots? Remember, due to a new rule change, there will be six or seven nominees instead of the usual five. No new show has been a break-out smash hit. "United States of Tara" was well received. Ditto "Better Off Ted." However, neither had socko ratings, which matter a lot because the nominees will now be determined strictly by a popular ballot. There won't be judging panels this year to boost a lower-rated show's chances. "Parks and Recreation" will benefit from being a hugely touted prestige series airing on NBC's Thursday night lineup.

Did you enjoy that stunt on the Emmys on Sunday night when Ricky Gervais marched into the audience and demanded that Steve Carell give him back the Emmy he beat him for last year as best comedy actor?

While the stunt was obviously a put-on, it addressed a somewhat serious situation.

The "Extras" star actually received statuette not long after Steve Carell claimed it at the podium when summoned to the stage by presenters Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert when Ricky Gervais couldn't attend last year.

Ever since then a rumor has persisted that Carell (star "The Office," which was spun off of Gervais' original British production) has refused to give it to the real winner. Carell spread it himself, saying so as a joke, but it was widely believed to be true. Gold Derby asked Ricky Gervais for the real scoop when we chatted with him last month.

"Well, I've got it now," he told us. "It may be a rumor, but when it was taken from him, I sent 'round some very big guys to get it. He held onto it and cried. He just cried and said, 'Why do you have to take this from me as well?' He was holding onto it. I don't know. That may be libelous."

Listen to our full podcast chat - CLICK HERE.

OK, you've seen who all of the experts predict will win the Emmys (CLICK HERE), including me, but you haven't yet seen my careful breakdown of all contenders in each top category. Below: Gold Derby's racetrack odds. Please note: they're issued for entertainment purposes only and should not be used for gambling. Missing are the two reality races, but soon I'll add those odds too. Right now I haven't finished watching all of the episodes each nominee submitted to Emmy judges as samples of their best work.

My evaluations rely heavily on episode submissions. For example, note that I think "Saturday Night Live" is a real threat to "The Daily Show," which has won best variety series five years in a row. Granted, "SNL" hasn't won since 1993 and I still put "Daily Show" out front, but "SNL" submitted the same blockbuster episode that's likely to pay off with a win for Amy Poehler as best supporting actress: Tina Fey's return as host. Jon Stewart's episode is fantastic too — it's 20 minutes of ranting against the White House (of course) followed by a brief, fun chat with Judd Apatow.

But I don't think, like many of my peers, that Tina Fey will win best comedy actress. Three of her opponents submitted episodes that involved some element of split personality and that usually pays off with a victory. (Never again wonder how Lindsay Wagner won best drama actress for "The Bionic Woman" in 1977 — that's when she suddenly discovered her evil twin, remember?) In this year's derby, America Ferrera goes bonkers when sprayed with a poisoned perfume, Christina Applegate goes psycho when she hears the song "We've Got the Beat" on the radio and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, pumped up on testosterone, threatens to kick the "sorry, tanned, bleach-blonde, Botoxed" butts of rival school moms. The reason I give the best odds to Ferrera is because she stars in a one-hour program. The longest shows usually win — as Ferrera proved last year.

To see a full list of all episode submissions, CLICK HERE. Click through the subsequent pages of that forum to read the predix of our posters based upon what they think of those episodes. If you're curious to see what episodes were entered at past Emmy derbies, CLICK HERE. Remember: actors submit one sample episode; ditto for contenders for best variety and reality series. Nominees for best comedy and drama submit six that are paired off into three groupings that are randomly submitted to voters. Actors vote on actors, writers on writers, everybody gets to vote in the program categories. Roughly 250 to 300 voters volunteer to judge submissions in the races for best comedy and drama series. The typical acting category has about 50 to 75 judges.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Mad Men" - 5/4
"Damages" - 7/5
"Lost" - 8/1
"House" - 9/1
"Dexter" - 10/1
"Boston Legal" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"30 Rock" - 1/3
"The Office" - 8/5
"Entourage" - 20/1
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" - 30/1
"Two and a Half Men" - 40/1

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" - 2/1
James Spader, "Boston Legal" - 11/5
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - 13/5
Hugh Laurie, "House" - 8/1
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" - 8/1
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" - 35/1
(NOTE: I changed this prediction from James Spader to Bryan Cranston on Sept. 19.)

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close, "Damages" - 2/1
Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: S.V.U." - 3/1
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" - 7/2
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace" - 4/1
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" - 9/2

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" - Even
Steve Carell, "The Office" - 5/2
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" - 7/2
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" - 6/1
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" - 2/1
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" - 7/3
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine" - 5/2
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" - 3/1
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" - 50/1

BEST MINISERIES
"John Adams" - 1/2
"Cranford" - 7/5
"Tin Man" - 30/1
"The Andromeda Strain" - 40/1

Again our two top Emmy gurus are clashing over who'll win a top race!

Chris "Boomer" Beachum believes the champ will be Steve Carell ("The Office") and he may be right. Steve Carell is arguably America's biggest comedy star, and it's shocking that he's lost this category twice for a show that won best comedy series (2006).

This year Carell has a secret edge: a special, one-hour episode he submitted to judges ("Goodbye, Toby"). Because the comedy acting categories are usually dominated by half-hour sitcoms, having twice the face time of your rivals often pays off. Over the last eight years, five champs prevailed in one-hour episodes. Curiously, three of the five nominees this year have that advantage: Carell, Lee Pace ("Pushing Daisies") and Tony Shalhoub ("Monk"). To be brutally frank, Shalhoub probably owes a few of his three past victories to the fact that he plays a colorful oddball on a one-hour show.

I totally agree with Boomer's evaluation of Carell's amazing performance in "Toby." "He gets to be over-the-top funny, sentimental, romantic and just about everything else," Boomer notes. "If he doesn't win this time, I don't think he ever will." Read my full examination of Carell's episode HERE.

But Carell has a problem: he portrays a boss from hell who's so creepy that he's hard to embrace — and Emmys are all about TV industry insiders passing out hugs, of course. Yes, Carell has many redeeming, even sympathetic moments here, but he had a doozy of a heart-tugging scene at the end of last year's episode ("Business School") that suddenly redeemed his character, and he still lost — to someone portraying a creep, no less (Ricky Gervais, "Extras")!

I agree completely with the ranking in this category made by our other forums moderator: Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net). Alec Baldwin only stars in a half-hour show ("30 Rock"), but his performance in the "Rosemary's Baby" episode has the most powerful impact of all five nominees, even though it's just one scene.

The usual Emmy formula for winning is this: The actor must show off a broad emotional range and have at least one big-impact scene in an empathetic role. Baldwin displays a dazzling array of emotions when he breaks into his outrageous jive riff during the therapy session with Tracy, which has the impact of a nuclear bomb. Empathy? Sure, Baldwin, like Carell, portrays a creepy boss from hell, but admit it — I do — he's so hilariously devilish that you can't help but root for him. Read my full examination of Baldwin's episode HERE.

This race is neck and neck, a total toss-up. Boomer may be right and, if so, Carell would totally deserve the victory. But I have a hunch Rob's correct. However, I don't pick Baldwin with enormous confidence.

KEEP READING - CLICK HERE!

Ricky Gervais is the king of upsets at Hollywood awards. Remember: Last year the "Extras" star staged that shockeroo in the Emmy race for best comedy actor over Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock") and Steve Carell ("The Office"). Previously, there were those two jaw-droppers he pulled off at the Golden Globes in 2004 when the British version of "The Office" and he won best comedy series and actor. Listen to our podcast with Gervais — CLICK HERE — as he recalls the shock of all three victories.

In addition to his awards history, Ricky Gervais and his "Extras" finale pose serious threats in the current Emmy derby because the wrap-up TV movie is a powerful film with a wallop of an ending. This is Ricky Gervais' salvo at the same TV biz that employs Emmy voters, and it articulates the angst and rage they no doubt feel deeply about the industry too.

During the early days of the "Extras" TV series, Ricky Gervais starred as just that — a lowly extra, desperate to be famous. Now, in the finale, he's a successful TV star with a goofy lowbrow sitcom that requires him to wear a curly wig and silly red glasses and act like a happy-go-lucky moron. Fame has gone to his head, and he now wants serious, respectful showbiz work, so he quits the TV show, fires his agent, trades up for a fancy agency guy and waits for glory.

Of course, it doesn't come. His fortunes and spirits sink lower and lower until he's so desperate for work that he accepts a humiliating role on British TV's "Celebrity Big Brother."

That's where Ricky Gervais scores his big money scene that could trigger new award upsets. At one point during the reality TV show, he suddenly cracks and fumes a rant to his fellow contestants: "What are we doing? Selling ourselves, selling everything! … 'Oh, I'm pregnant. We must televise the birth. Quick, see if Ryan Seacrest can present it! Maybe it can make E! channel's "100 Greatest Cesareans."' I'm just sick of these celebrities living their lives out in the open all the time. Why would you do that? It's like these pop stars choose the perfect moment to go into rehab. They call their publicist before they call a taxi. Then they come out and do their second autobiography. This one is called 'Love Me or I'll Kill Myself.' Oh, go kill yourself then! And the papers lap it up. And they follow us round and that makes people think we're important and that makes us think we're important. If they stopped taking pictures of us, people wouldn't take to the streets going, 'Oh, quick! I need a picture of Cameron Diaz with a pimple!' They wouldn't care. They'd go on with something else. They'd get on with their lives. You open the paper and you see a picture of Lindsay Lohan getting out of a car and the headline is 'Cover Up, Lindsay! We Can See Your Knickers!' Well, of course you can see her knickers. Your photographer is lying in the road pointing his camera up her dress to see her knickers. You're literally the gutter press. And ... you, the makers of this show as well! You can't wash your hands of this . . . . "

KEEP READING RICKY'S RANT - CLICK HERE!

PHOTOS BELOW: Gervais on the TV sitcom; Gervais in dual gender roles on the show — male and in drag; he removes his wig to announce to the TV studio audience that he quits; Gervais ends up doing reality TV, appearing as a participant in "Celebrity Big Brother" in the U.K. TO SEE ALL FOUR PIX, CLICK HERE!

Our two best Emmy gurus — forum moderators Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) and Chris "Boomer" Beachum — clash on what show will win best drama series (see HERE), but agree on what'll prevail as best comedy: "30 Rock." And this time I agree with them.

Last year's champ will not only repeat for all of the reasons they outline in their text below, but one more. "30 Rock" is a show about the lunacy of the TV biz and that probably proves irresistible to TV academy members who must cope with that craziness in their daily jobs. Sure, one of Emmy's biggest losers — "The Larry Sanders Show" — was about the late-show biz, but it was brilliantly creepy and off-putting and it didn't showcase superstars like Alec Baldwin and Tina Fey.

Boomer and Rob agree with what's in second place too ("The Office"), but thereafter their rankings diverge. Boomer holds out some hope for "Entourage," but not Rob. Very interesting. But here I tend to agree with Boomer.

BEST COMEDY SERIES: BOOMER'S RANKING
1. "30 Rock"
2. "The Office"
3. "Entourage"
4. "Two and a Half Men"
5. "Curb Your Enthusiasm"

QUICK EARLY CALL —  Unlike the drama series race, this is a very easy category to predict.  "30 Rock" has all the industry buzz, the hip cool factor with Tina Fey at the helm, and is the defending champ.  It doesn't hurt that the show has far more than six excellent episodes to submit too.

The only other show even close is "The Office," but even its greatest fans would say that the show slipped a little this last season.  The producers can certainly assemble a great package of episode submissions, but I just don't think it will win this time.  Much like the drama series race, it is extremely rare for a series to win this category without a directing or writing nomination (the only time in the last 25-plus years was "Friends"), so I think it is safe to say that "Men" and "Curb" are out.  "Entourage" has a slim hope, but it also fell in quality this last season.  It is a real shame that "Pushing Daisies" did not make this race after claiming so many other nominations.

BEST COMEDY SERIES: ROB'S RANKING
1. "30 Rock"
2. "The Office"
3. "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
4. "Two and a Half Men"
5. "Entourage"

QUICK EARLY CALL — If "30 Rock" submits "Rosemary's Baby," then it's a shoo-in. With "Cooter," it is vulnerable, because although it's a clever and entertaining episode, the laughs are not there as much. Ditto for "The Office," which looks to have submitted unwisely. That being said, it's a two-horse race, with the two NBC comedies dominating the buzz and positive cult-like reviews of the media and fans alike.

In our podcast chat, Ricky Gervais confesses to us that he's secretly planning to get even with Steve Carell at the upcoming Emmys.

CLICK HERE to Download the MP3 File and Listen. Note: You may need to hold down your computer's control key while clicking.

When Ricky Gervais wasn't present at last year's Emmys to accept his upset victory for best comedy actor ("Extras"), Steve Carell leapt to the stage and claimed the statuette on behalf of the man who trailblazed his role on the original "The Office." Gervais produced, wrote and starred in the British version from 2001 to 2004 before Carell debuted a Yankee rendition in 2005, which won best comedy series at the Emmys.

Next, if Carell wins best comedy actor for the U.S. version of "The Office" on Sept. 21, "I'm going to beat him to the stage just to even things up," Ricky Gervais says. "I'm going to wrestle him to the ground and get his Emmy before he can."

Gervais may also have his own Emmy to claim that night too, as a nominee for best actor in a TV film for "Extras: The Extra Special Series Finale." Most award prognosticators pooh-pooh his chance to win because he competes against four past Oscar nominees and/or winners: Ralph Fiennes ("Bernard and Doris"), Paul Giamatti ("John Adams"), Kevin Spacey ("Recount") and Tom Wilkinson ("Recount").

But it's foolish to write off Gervais at Hollywood awards where this devilish British pixie is a proven giant slayer.

Ricky Gervais has pulled off some of the biggest upsets in modern kudos history. Nobody, not even Gervais, foresaw his Emmy victory last year over Carell, Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock"), Tony Shalhoub ("Monk") and Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men").

He wasn't present because "I was playing to 5,000 people at Royal Albert Hall" in London, he tells us, but he did attend the Golden Globes in 2004, when he pulled off two jawdroppers.

That's where the British version of "The Office," which aired in the States via BBC America, won best comedy series over "Arrested Development," "Monk," "Sex and the City" and "Will & Grace." A few minutes later, Gervais won best actor over Matt LeBlanc ("Friends"), Bernie Mac ("The Bernie Mac Show"), Eric McCormack ("Will & Grace") and Tony Shalhoub ("Monk").

"That was crazy!" he recalls. "We went over there, this little show on BBC America, up against all of the big boys. The people from BBC America were saying, 'If you win, you should say this,' and I wasn't even listening. I said, 'I'm not going to win.' And when I got up there I forgot who to thank.

"When they said my name, I thought, 'That's ridiculous. How strange. We won a Golden Globe.' Then it came up for best actor, and in my head I thought, 'I bet I've won this one as well.' I went from definitely, definitely not going to win, no point, but when I won one, I thought I probably won two. That's how winning can change you.

"It was a surreal night. I'd done this little show that suddenly took off, and I'm walking past Tom Cruise and Jack Nicholson, and it was just ridiculous."

Now, as he faces off against four Oscar-caliber rivals, he says, "I don't think I can compete with those big guys. I'd hate to start thinking that people expect me to be bawdy about it. Just being invited is nice enough for me. It's an excuse to put on a suit. It's something I have to do once a year — put on some grown-up clothes."

However, if he wins this time, will he have an acceptance speech ready?