The Envelope Logo

Gold Derby

Tom O'Neil has the inside track on Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and all the award shows.

Category: The Office

SAG Awards predix: Best ensemble in a TV comedy series

October 15, 2010 |  6:16 pm

Glee tv news

Sizing up the next race for best ensemble in a TV comedy series at the Screen Actors Guild Awards is tricky. Three of the four nominees are locks: "Modern Family," "30 Rock" and recent winner "Glee."

But what about "The Office"? It's been nommed for the past four consecutive years, winning twice (2006, 2007). Our guru Chris "Boomer" Beachum believes it will return, but not Rob Licuria (Awards Heaven). He boots it out for "Nurse Jackie." They both agree that TV superhit "The Big Bang Theory" will finally score its first bid here.

Below, Boomer handicaps the top contenders. Also view Boomer's and Rob's views on the SAG Awards for best ensemble in a drama series and best actor.

* = nominee last year

BEST COMEDY ENSEMBLE
(Front-runners)
"The Big Bang Theory"
"The Big C"
"Community"
"Entourage"
"Glee" *
"Modern Family"*
"Nurse Jackie"
"The Office" *
"Parks and Recreation"
"30 Rock" *

(Possible)
"Cougar Town"
"How I Met Your Mother"
"Two and a Half Men"
"United States of Tara"
"Weeds"

Continue reading »

Emmy prediction smackdown: Experts forecast who'll win

August 26, 2010 |  1:39 pm

Here's a roundup of Emmy Award predictions from the best pundits on the planet: Mike Ausiello (Entertainment Weekly), Kristin dos Santos (E! Online), Maggie Furlong (AOL TV Squad), Joseph Kapsch (Zap2It), Steve Pond (The Odds, The Wrap), Matt Roush (TV Guide) plus the Gold Derby/The Envelope team of Chris "Boomer" Beachum, Rob Licuria and me. Read category-per-category analysis here.

Emmy Awards predictions news

COMEDY SERIES
"Curb Your Enthusiasm"
"Glee" — Dos Santos
"Modern Family" — Ausiello, Beachum, Furlong, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pond, Roush
"Nurse Jackie"
"The Office"
"30 Rock"

COMEDY ACTOR
Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory") — Ausiello, Beachum, Dos Santos, Furlong, Pond, Roush
Larry David ("Curb Your Enthusiasm")
Matthew Morrison ("Glee")
Tony Shalhoub ("Monk") — Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil
Steve Carell ("The Office")
Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock")

COMEDY ACTRESS
Lea Michele ("Glee") — Dos Santos
Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("The New Adventures of Old Christine")
Edie Falco ("Nurse Jackie") — Ausiello, Beachum, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pond, Roush
Amy Poehler ("Parks and Recreation")
Tina Fey ("30 Rock")
Toni Collette ("United States of Tara") — Furlong

SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTOR
Chris Colfer ("Glee") — Kapsch, O'Neil
Neil Patrick Harris ("How I Met Your Mother")
Jesse Tyler Ferguson ("Modern Family")
Eric Stonestreet ("Modern Family") — Beachum, Dos Santos, Licuria, Pond
Ty Burrell ("Modern Family") — Ausiello, Furlong, Roush
Jon Cryer ("Two and a Half Men")

SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTRESS
Jane Lynch ("Glee") — Ausiello, Beachum, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pond, Roush
Julie Bowen ("Modern Family")
Sofia Vergara ("Modern Family")
Kristen Wiig ("Saturday Night Live")
Jane Krakowski ("30 Rock")
Holland Taylor ("Two and a Half Men")

DRAMA SERIES
"Breaking Bad" — Dos Santos
"Dexter"
"The Good Wife"
"Lost" — Furlong
"Mad Men" — Ausiello, Beachum, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pond, Roush
"True Blood"

DRAMA ACTOR
Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") — Ausiello, Furlong
Michael C. Hall ("Dexter") — Beachum, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pond, Roush
Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights") — Dos Santos
Hugh Laurie ("House")
Matthew Fox ("Lost")
Jon Hamm ("Mad Men")

DRAMA ACTRESS
Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")
Glenn Close ("Damages")
Connie Britton ("Friday Night Lights")
Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife") — Ausiello, Beachum, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pond, Roush
Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: Special Victims Unit")
January Jones ("Mad Men")

Continue reading »

Will 'Modern Family' end winning streak for '30 Rock' at the Emmys?

August 23, 2010 |  3:25 pm
Rob Licuria (AwardsHeaven) and Chris "Boomer" Beachum both believe that "Modern Family" will bump out "30 Rock" for best comedy series at the Emmy Awards. If "Modern Family" manages to keep "30 Rock" from a fourth consecutive win, the critically acclaimed comedy would join an esteemed group of shows to take TV's top honor for their freshman seasons. Among those laffers that managed this laudable feat: "All in the Family" (1971, the first of four wins); "Taxi" (1979, the first of three in a row); "Cheers" (1983, the first of four); "The Cosby Show" (1985); "The Golden Girls" (1986, the first of two in a row); "The Wonder Years" (1988); "Frasier" (1994, the first of a record five in a row); "Arrested Development" (2004); and, oh yes, "30 Rock" (2007).

Modern Family Promo Poster Season 1 COMEDY SERIES: ROB'S PREDIX
1. "Modern Family"
2. "30 Rock"
3. "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
4. "Glee"
5. "Nurse Jackie"
6. "The Office"

ROB'S COMMENTARY: I could make an argument for all six series nominated in this category, as all chose strong episodes (with a couple of minor exceptions) that showcase each series in their best light. My expectation is that Academy members will be reluctant to award "The Office" because it was widely seen as having a substandard season, and although "Nurse Jackie" has six very strong and funny episodes on their reel, showcasing its excellent cast led by Emmy Queen Edie Falco, I still have a feeling that the show is too small and perhaps too “dramatic” to claim this prize with this level of competition.

"Glee" was probably the standout hit of the season, becoming an iTunes and Billboard phenomenon and top moneymaker for the Fox network. It started very strong, but after an extended hiatus midseason, I (and I suspect many others) felt that it did not return to the same form that it showed in its first batch of episodes. Some commentators began to tire of the formula for each episode, where it felt as though some episodes were written around the songs (instead of having the songs propel the story). I also think that out of its six chosen episodes, a couple of them were not the best that "Glee" had to offer.

"Curb Your Enthusiasm" has its fans in the Academy, and it last season was undoubtedly its best, and most nostalgic, harkening back to the "Seinfeld" days. I don’t think it will win, however, because I think in terms of production values, it is a little slight in comparison to the other shows in the mix. Normally one would expect that "30 Rock" is the frontrunner, given its very “Inside Baseball” perspective, top notch writing, and Hollywood fave Tina Fey. But there have been murmurings that the show lost a little steam in its fourth season, which may affect its chances here. That being said, the six episodes on offer here are among its absolute best, so don’t be surprised if it wins its fourth Emmy here.

However, what other comedy series this year came storming out of the gate as a critical and commercial hit like "Modern Family" has. Almost unanimous praise from all quarters, with almost all of its main adult cast nominated, and the pedigree of Levitan and Lloyd behind the scenes. I think it might be time for some fresh blood to win this category, and I think this is it. My only caveat is that the six episodes chosen were not a perfect home run in my book. Will that hurt its chances? Possibly. So expect a photo finish with "30 Rock" here.

Modern Family Cast Photo Season 1 COMEDY SERIES: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1. "Modern Family"
2. "30 Rock"
3. "Glee"
4. "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
5. "The Office"
6. "Nurse Jackie"

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: I am not really sure why people are having trouble predicting the winner of this category, many of them unfortunately choosing the wrong one. Don't overthink the situation! In the same year that three-time victor "30 Rock" had a topsy-turvy season in terms of quality, the producers and crew of "Modern Family" created an amazingly funny comedy that not only is a throwback to traditional family favorites but jumps into lots of new frontiers as well. It feels fresh and new but comfortably familiar all wrapped up in a fun 30-minute package.

Most of the "30 Rock" episodes chosen for the judging panel are good ones, but I find it hard to believe that they will be rewarded yet again for a season that was creatively off balance. Looking at other tea leaves, you can also see that the show doesn't have nearly the same Emmy love, with far fewer nominations in the acting and writing categories. On the other hand, five out of six "Modern Family" adult actors were nominated, plus the series received very important nominations in other categories. I would be shocked if it does not win the top Emmy.

Continue reading »

Dueling Emmy predictions: Mike versus Tom

August 13, 2010 |  1:25 pm
Emmy logo sparkle-1

Entertainment Weekly's Mike Ausiello and I mostly agree on who'll win Emmys in the top series races Aug. 29. However, there are significant differences in our rankings per category, and there is drastic disagreement over how we size up the contest for best comedy actor. I've got Tony Shalhoub ("Monk") in first place, Mike's got him in last!

Note: My predix are still a bit tentative. I haven't seen a few of the episodes submitted to Emmy judges by nominees as examples of their best work. When I finish up that viewing in a few days, I may make a few changes. Mike may want to make a few last-minute switcheroos too? Meantime, thank you, Mike, for piping in.


BEST DRAMA SERIES

Mike Ausiello

Tom O'Neil

1. "Mad Men" "Mad Men"
2. "Breaking Bad" "Lost"
3.

"The Good Wife"

"Dexter"
4. "Dexter" "The Good Wife"
5. "Lost"

"Breaking Bad"

6. "True Blood" "True Blood"


BEST DRAMA ACTOR

Mike Ausiello

Tom O'Neil

1. Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"
2. Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights"

Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"

3.

Hugh Laurie, "House"

Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights"
4. Matthew Fox, "Lost"

Hugh Laurie, "House"

5. Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"

Matthew Fox, "Lost"

6. Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"


BEST DRAMA ACTRESS

Mike Ausiello

Tom O'Neil

1. Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife" Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
2. Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights" Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights"
3.

Glenn Close, "Damages"

Glenn Close, "Damages"

4. January Jones, "Mad Men" Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"
5. Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"

Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU"

6. Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU" January Jones, "Mad Men"


BEST COMEDY SERIES

Mike Ausiello

Tom O'Neil

1. "Modern Family" "Modern Family"
2. "Glee" "Glee"
3.

"30 Rock"

"30 Rock"

4. "The Office" "Nurse Jackie"
5. "Curb Your Enthusiasm"

"Curb Your Enthusiasm"

6. "Nurse Jackie" "The Office"


BEST COMEDY ACTOR

Mike Ausiello

Tom O'Neil

1. Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory" Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"
2. Steve Carell, "The Office" Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"
3.

Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"

Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
4. Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm" Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"
5. Matthew Morrison, "Glee"

Steve Carell, "The Office"

6. Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" Matthew Morrison, "Glee"


BEST COMEDY ACTRESS

Mike Ausiello

Tom O'Neil

1. Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie" Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"
2. Amy Poehler, "Parks & Recreation" Toni Collette, "United States of Tara"
3.

Tina Fey, "30 Rock"

Lea Michele, "Glee"
4. Toni Collette, "United States of Tara"

Tina Fey, "30 Rock"

5. Lea Michele, "Glee"

Amy Poehler, "Parks & Recreation"

6. Julie Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine" Julie Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine"

Photo: Academy of Television Arts & Sciences

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.


Pssst! Here's how much Emmy nominee$ earn

August 13, 2010 |  9:02 am

As Emmy contenders slug it out to win fake gold statuettes, TV Guide just tattled on how much real gold they earn from their tube jobs. Poor Hugh Laurie has lost his four Emmy bouts in the past, but isn't indigent. His hefty consolation prize: $400,000 for starring in each episode of "House M.D." Here are the salaries of other Emmy nominees on the TV Guide list. Sums are per episode unless otherwise indicated.

Jon Cryer Two and a Half Men news-3

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Hugh Laurie, "House M.D." - $400,000
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - $100,000

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU" -  $395,000
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" - $350,000
Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife" - $175,000

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Steve Carell, "The Office" - $297,000
Matthew Morrison, "Glee" - $30,000
Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory" - $40,000

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie" - $175,000

BEST SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTOR
Ty Burrell, "Modern Family" - $50,000
Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men" - $550,000

BEST SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTRESS
Jane Lynch, "Glee" - $50,000

VARIETY CATEGORIES
David Letterman, "The Late Show" - $28 million per year
Conan O'Brien, "The Conan O'Brien Show" - $10 million per year

BEST REALITY TV HOST
Ryan Seacrest, "American Idol" - $15 million per year

Photo: WireImage

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.


Emmy favorites, according to Yahoo

August 12, 2010 |  1:54 pm

Never mind which TV shows and stars are favored by Emmy voters. Yahoo measured the lists of Emmy nominees according to which ones were searched most by their Web browsers during the eligibility period spanning June 1, 2009, to May 31, 2010.

Yahoo emmy

TOP SEARCHED BEST SERIES, DRAMA

1. "Lost"

2. "True Blood"

3. "Dexter"

4. "Mad Men"

5. "Breaking Bad"

6. "The Good Wife"
 


TOP SEARCHED BEST SERIES, COMEDY
1. "Glee"

2. "The Office"

3. "Modern Family"

4. "30 Rock"

5. "Nurse Jackie"

6. "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
 

TOP SEARCHED BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
1. Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
2. Hugh Laurie, "House"

3. Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"

4. Matthew Fox, "Lost"

5. Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"

6. Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights"

Continue reading »

Up close: Emmy DVDs used for judging best comedy series

August 11, 2010 |  8:29 pm

Below is what was shipped to about 300 members of the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences who agreed to judge the Emmy category of best comedy series. Each voter got a DVD box of six discs that contain two episodes each of the six nominated programs: "Curb Your Enthusiasm," "Glee," "Modern Family," "Nurse Jackie," "The Office" and "30 Rock."

Producers of nominated programs actually submit a total of six sample episodes to be judged. They're divided into three sets (Panel A, Panel B, Panel C) of two episodes of each show, which are sent randomly to voters who will judge one set each, sign an affidavit attesting that they viewed all episodes in their category, then return the affidavit and ballot to accountants by Aug. 17. The winner will be announced on Aug. 29.

All three sets of DVDs are shown in the top photo below. Middle photo: contents of typical DVD box. Bottom photo: the six discs inside the Panel A box. Note that the discs are marked only with the series title. Episode titles are not indicated on the discs and they do not appear when played. Click on each photo below to enlarge and get a better view.

Emmy DVDs 1
Emmy DVDs 2 shot
Emmy DVDs 2

L.A. Times photos by Tom O'Neil

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.


Emmy predix: Can Jim Parsons edge out three-time comedy acting champ Tony Shalhoub?

August 10, 2010 |  2:02 pm

Our Emmy experts Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Rob "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven) disagree about who will prevail in the comedy lead actor race. Boomer believes Jim Parsons can win with his second nomination as Sheldon the slightly mad scientist in "The Big Bang Theory." And Rob thinks Tony Shalhoub can take home a fourth Emmy for the eighth and final season of "Monk," adding to those he won for seasons one, three and four.

Jim Parsons Big Bang Theory Emmy Awards COMEDY LEAD ACTOR: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1. Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory" ("The Pants Alternative")
2. Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" ("Don Geiss, America & Hope")
3. Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" ("Mr. Monk and the End, Parts 1 & 2")
4. Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm" ("Seinfeld")
5. Steve Carell, "The Office" ("The Cover Up")
6. Matthew Morrison, "Glee" ("Mash Up")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: I agree with many people that Tony Shalhoub gives the most complete and impressive overall performance of this category's nominees. It does have a little humor, but is mostly dramatic and probably contains the most crying and coughing of any comedy submission (maybe ever). The first hour is very interesting and makes you want to know what happens next, which is unfortunately the second hour and its poorly written and plotted conclusion to the series. With all of that in mind, I just can't bring myself to think that Emmy voters would want to elevate him into a pantheon with the only other men to ever win this category four times (Carroll O'Connor, Michael J. Fox and Kelsey Grammer).

Jim Parsons easily gives the funniest performance of the group, with nice ensemble work, individual one-on-one scenes with each character and a drunken conclusion accepting an award no less. Voters haven't warmed too much to "The Big Bang Theory," but I hope they will appreciate the all-out comedy in this particular episode. I am projecting him to take home his first Emmy this year.

I have Alec Baldwin in second place because I think it is the most complete performance he has submitted to Emmy judges yet. It doesn't have the gimmicks of previous winning submissions, but has a lot going for it and him. There is a strong possibility they aren't quite done with rewarding him yet, even more so in a year when practically nobody is predicting him to win again. Larry David is also very funny in his season finale and even gets a couple of tender moments trying to win back his ex-wife.

Steve Carell submits an incredibly weak episode this year that finds him off-screen as much as on. Speaking of weak, if I was ranking all 37 acting episodes in the comedy categories, I would most likely rank Matthew Morrison's at No. 37 (mainly due to the awful rapping).

Tony Shalhoub Emmy Awards Monk COMEDY LEAD ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX
1. Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" ("Mr. Monk and the End, Parts 1 & 2")
2. Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory" ("The Pants Alternative")
3. Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm" ("Seinfeld")
4. Matthew Morrison, "Glee" ("Mash Up")
5. Steve Carell, "The Office" ("The Cover Up")
6. Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" ("Don Geiss, America and Hope")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: Unbelievably, I have reigning champion and multiple Emmy winner Alec Baldwin in last place in this category, based solely on the episode that he chose to submit to judges. In "Don Geiss," I don't think he was given nearly as much to do as in previous entries. He doesn't have as much of the witty dialogue that we are accustomed to seeing and there's not even any of the over the top mugging for the camera (like in last year's "Generalissimo" episode) that I think was the main factor that propelled him to the top last year. I think it is safe to say Baldwin will sit this one out this year.

Similarly, Steve Carell is good but not great in his episode. There are some laughs, and the usual cringe-inducing hysteria that this character is renowned for, but I never once thought to myself that this performance would drive Emmy voters to tick off his name on the ballot. There is almost zero likeability, which Carell has had in past attempts (and still lost), which I think will ultimately cost him votes. Maybe next year, in his final season, he might get that great send-off episode that will (finally) get him the Emmy that has so far eluded him.

I was tempted to place Matthew Morrison in last position because I think he (or his representation, or the show's producers) made an almost fatal error by submitting the very episode that demonstrates the one incredibly irritating factor that he and the show were mercilessly criticized and picked on about all season long: Mr. Schu RAPPING. And it's not even once, but TWICE, in two separate song-and-dance numbers, that we have to suffer through the horror of it all. That all being said, Morrison is by far one of the most talented actors on TV right now – and that much is clear from his episode. He is an accomplished all-round performer and will garner some votes because of this. He also has plenty of screen time, some range, and even some laughs. So he proves that he deserves to be here, but I couldn't wait for the episode to be over, and I have a feeling that I won't be alone in that assessment.

Continue reading »

Emmy poll: Can 'Glee,' 'Modern Family' or 'Nurse Jackie' beat '30 Rock'?

July 9, 2010 |  8:52 am

"30 Rock" keeps rolling along at the Emmys, It won best comedy series for the last three years. In fact, it's never lost and maybe it will keep winning like "Frasier," which triumphed five consecutive times. After all, "30 Rock" may be irresistible. It's about the zaniness of the TV biz — the workaday world of those wacky Emmy voters.

Glee mondern family nurse jackie emmy

However, many pundits believe "Modern Family" will prevail because it's new and has mega-buzz. Emmy voters do love sitcoms about dysfunctional families, dating back to such past winners as "I Love Lucy" and "Make Room for Daddy" and, in more recent years, "Everybody Loves Raymond." Also, this modern family lives in a swank house and its daddy uses an iPad. That gives the show snob appeal, which is often crucial to winning. Nothing had more snob appeal than "Frasier," of course — a show about two uppity brothers fussing over opera and burgundy wines.

But "Glee" is the TV show that's captured America's heart and, even though Emmy voters are often accused of being callous Hollywooders, they do -- surprise -- have a heart. Also, they're older and a bit old-fashioned. "Glee" skews young, yes, but it's championing the return of an entertainment genre that reigned supreme in the young, song-bursting days of TV academy geezers.

And what about "Nurse Jackie"? It pulled off a surprise nomination here and perhaps could surprise again. Programs and performances about substance abuse often do exceptionally well at showbiz awards conducted in rehab-happy Hollywood. Examples: "Intervention" pulled off an upset in the Emmy race for best reality program last year. Jeff Bridges just won an Oscar for portraying a pot-bellied drunk in the unwatchably bad "Crazy Heart."

Forget about "The Office" and "Curb Your Enthusiasm." Both lost consistently at recent Emmy derbies.

RELATED POSTS:

My Emmy nominations predictions: 79% correct

After losing first Emmy bid last year, Harry Shearer back to being snubbed for 'The Simpsons'

Trio of Emmy favorites among guest actor drama nominees

Emmy nominations: The good, the bad and the ugly (Rob's version)

Emmy nominations: The good, the bad and the ugly (Boomer's version)

Conan O'Brien ousts Jay Leno and David Letterman from Emmys

'True Blood' breaks the Emmy vampire curse

Will 'SVU' be good luck charm for Ann-Margret at Emmys?

Emmy nominations smackdown: Betty White vs. Tina Fey

Who scored the most Emmy nominations

Emmy nomination surprises: 'Nurse Jackie' in, Charlie Sheen out

Emmy Awards nominations: Who got skunked!

Photo credits: (left to right) "Glee" (Fox), "Modern Family" (ABC), "Nurse Jackie" (Showtime)

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.


My fearless, 100% accurate Emmy nominations predictions

July 6, 2010 | 11:35 am
Emmy Awards 12

Here's who I predict will score bids when Emmy Awards nominations are unveiled Thursday morning:

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Breaking Bad"
"Damages"
"Dexter"
"Mad Men"
"The Good Wife"
"Lost"

ALTERNATES: "Big Love," "Friday Night Lights," "House M.D.," "Sons of Anarchy," "Treme"


BEST COMEDY SERIES
"The Big Bang Theory"
"Curb Your Enthusiasm"
"Family Guy"
"Glee"
"Modern Family"
"30 Rock"

ALTERNATES: "Community," "How I Met Your Mother," "Entourage," "Nurse Jackie," "The Office," "Parks and Recreation," "Weeds"


BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Simon Baker ("The Mentalist")
Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad")
Michael C. Hall ("Dexter")
Jon Hamm ("Mad Men")
Hugh Laurie ("House")
Timothy Olyphant ("Justified")

ALTERNATES: Matt Bomer ("White Collar"), Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights"), Matthew Fox ("Lost"), Peter Krause ("Parenthood"), Denis Leary ("Rescue Me"), Bill Paxton ("Big Love"), Wendell Pierce ("Treme"), Kiefer Sutherland ("24")


BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close ("Damages")
Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU")
January Jones ("Mad Men")
Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife")
Katey Sagal ("Sons of Anarchy")
Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")

ALTERNATES: Sally Field ("Brothers and Sisters"), Anna Gunn ("Breaking Bad"), Holly Hunter ("Saving Grace"), Melissa Leo ("Treme"), Anna Paquin ("True Blood")


BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Steve Carell ("The Office")
Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock")
Larry David ("Curb Your Enthusiasm")
Matthew Morrison ("Glee")
Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory")
Tony Shalhoub ("Monk")

ALTERNATES: David Duchovny ("Californication"), Joel McHale ("Community"), Thomas Jane ("Hung"), Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men")

Continue reading »

Gold Derby nuggets: Bill Condon helming 'Twilight: Breaking Dawn' | Steve Carell leaving 'The Office'? | Kathy Griffin still on 'D List'

April 28, 2010 |  4:59 pm

Breaking_Dawn_cover • Writer/director Bill Condon -- who co-produced last year's Academy Awards -- has inked a deal to direct the fourth film in the "Twilight" franchise. There is talk that "Breaking Dawn" will be split into two films, as is being done with the last in the "Harry Potter" series. Condon -- who won an Oscar for his script for "Gods & Monsters" -- said in a statement, "I’m very excited to get the chance to bring the climax of this saga to life on-screen. As fans of the series know, this is a one-of-a-kind book and we’re hoping to create an equally unique cinematic experience."

• The first wave of bold-faced names who will attend the presentation of the AFI lifetime achievement award to Oscar-winning director Mike Nichols ("The Graduate") has been announced. Among those speaking at the June 10 ceremony will be a pair of two-time Oscar winners who are both previous AFI honorees -- Tom Hanks (2002) and Meryl Streep (2003) -- as well as two more Oscar champs -- Cher and Julia Roberts. All four of them have been directed at least once by Nichols who is one of only 10 people to have won the grand slam of all four major showbiz awards. YAHOO

Steve Carell The Office • Looks like four-time lead actor Emmy nominee Steve Carell could be resigning from "The Office" when his contract expires at the end of next season. As Willa Paskin reports, "Asked if he would stay longer, Carell, who has some ten movie projects in the works, told a BBC reporter, 'I don't think so. I think that will probably be my last year.' Of course, the last thing NBC needs is for the leading man of their highest-rated comedy to split, so they will likely offer Carell just about anything he wants to stay." NEW YORK

• The revamped official website of the Tony Awards will include a streaming feed of both the red carpet and the press room at the 64th annual edition of these top theater kudos on June 13. There will also be a section devoted to the Twitter feeds of the nominees after they are announced on May 4. TONY AWARDS

Kathy-griffin-my-life-on-the-dlist •Two-time Emmy champ Kathy Griffin talks with Scott Huver about the upcoming sixth season of "My Life on the D-List" including what sounds like a must-see episode with her taking an acting lesson from Oscar champ Liza Minnelli ("Cabaret"). Says Griffin, "What I took away from working with Liza was she wasn’t in her Liza kooky wacky mode. We see her on TV and so often she’s just putting on the Liza show. And when we were alone in her room, just the two of us rehearsing, she was so in the moment and so fantastic and that’s when you really see it." TV GUIDE

Jethro Nededog reports on the fun MTV is having touting its choice of "Parks and Recreation" supporting player Aziz Ansari as the host of this year's movie awards on June 6. In the promo, which debuted Tuesday night, "High School Musical" star Zac Efron, music mogul Diddy and "Gossip Girl" narrator Kristen Bell answer the question: Who is Aziz Ansari? ZAP2IT

Top photo: "Breaking Dawn" book cover. Credit: Hachette

Middle photo: Steve Carell in "The Office." Credit: NBC

Bottom photo: Kathy Griffin in "My Life on the D-List." Credit: Bravo

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

Easiest Emmy prediction: '30 Rock' will win best comedy series -- again

August 19, 2009 |  1:58 pm

"30 Rock" has not only triumphed as Emmy's best comedy series for the last two years, it's never lost and may be unbeatable. Two reasons: it's a shrewdly crafted satire (arguably, it actually deserves to win) and Emmy voters are TV industry insiders who can't resist its devilish take on their own workaday world. You must wonder: at some point, won't voters finally get bored with it winning every year, rebel and pick something else? Reality check: "Frasier" won this slot five years in a row and it wasn't even about the TV biz. It was about the radio biz — in Seattle.

Both of our Emmy seers Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) think, like I do, that "30 Rock" is a shoo-in to prevail again. Below, more of their reasoning and handicapping.

30 rock tina fey

BEST COMEDY SERIES: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1.) "30 Rock"
2.) "The Office"
3.) "Entourage"
4.) "How I Met Your Mother"
5.) "Family Guy"
6.) "Flight of the Conchords"
7.) "Weeds"
 
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: Unlike some of the acting categories, I think it's a done deal that "30 Rock" will pick up its third consecutive Emmy in the top comedy race. First and foremost, they aced their episode choices with six of the absolute best and funniest of the season. Secondly, the biggest competition (and previous winner) is "The Office," which needed to be perfect in their episode choices to have a decent shot at a win. They did a great job except for the episode "Golden Ticket," which was just a mediocre selection.

I really don't believe any of the other shows have a realistic chance of winning this category.  Looking back over the past 40 years of the Emmys, only one show has won the comedy series award without having at least one directing or writing nomination (that was "Friends" in 2002, when it was the overwhelming favorite to win anyway). I love statistics when predicting, so for my purposes it effectively eliminates "Family Guy," "How I Met Your Mother" and "Weeds" from consideration since they don't have those other nominations.

A victory by either of the other two nominated series ("Entourage" or "Flight of the Conchords") would be the upset of a lifetime.

Congratulations to Tina Fey, Lorne Michaels and the rest of the "30 Rock" team on another well-deserved win!

BEST COMEDY SERIES: ROB'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1.) "30 Rock"
2.) "The Office"
3.) "Family Guy"
4.) "How I Met Your Mother"
5.) "Flight of the Conchords"
6.) "Weeds"
7.) "Entourage"

ROB'S COMMENTARY: I think Boomer's theory that a series is not likely to win in this category without directing and writing nominations is a good one. That being said, I have rearranged the list according to how I think each of the series might fare, depending on what I perceive to be their potential core fan base. Remember, with seven nominated series, any one of them would presumably need around 15% of the votes to scrape through with a win. My math is not the best, but you hopefully know what I'm getting at.

I think that it is safe to say that "30 Rock" will win this again. With a 22 nominations (a record for a comedy series), it is the industry favorite, probably the hottest comedy on TV and does not look like it can be beaten, regardless of what episodes it submitted to voters. In its favor is that it has submitted six of its very best ones, which will more than likely propel it to a repeat victory.

Continue reading »

Connect

Advertisement

In Case You Missed It...

Stay Connected:


About the Blogger


Pop & Hiss



Categories


Archives
 



In Case You Missed It...