The Envelope Logo

Gold Derby

Tom O'Neil has the inside track on Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and all the award shows.

Category: William Shatner

Experts predict the Emmys: 'Mad Men,' '30 Rock' and Glenn Close are heavy faves

September 19, 2008 | 10:54 am

Gold Derby recruited two teams of experts to predict who'll win the Primetime Emmy Awards on Sept. 21 and discovered surprising consensus. Heavy favorites: "Mad Men" for best drama series, last year's champ "30 Rock" to repeat as best comedy, "John Adams" as best miniseries and "Damages" star Glenn Close as best drama actress.

But the two teams differ drastically in a few races and that's probably because of how I organized the teams. Team TV Journos comprises notable writers who cover the TV beat and pay close attention to the Emmys. How_i_met_your_mother_entourage_tv_Team The Envelope is composed largely of award nuts like me who pay special attention to past voting patterns and the sample episodes submitted to Emmy judges by the nominees.

It's interesting to note that one member of Team TV Journos really does too — that's John Kubicek, who once won a Gold Derby amateur prediction Emmy contest when he was known as poster "Tommy Castro" in our forums, but now I am banishing him (sorry, John!) to the journo team since he's a writer for BuddyTV.com. While Tommy Castro still posts in our message boards, the only forum posters I'm including on Team The Envelope are our Emmy-savvy moderators. Call it a perk of leadership.

TEAM TV JOURNOS: Michael Ausiello (Entertainment Weekly), Aaron Barnhart (Kansas City Star), Marc Berman (MediaWeek), Robert Bianco (USA Today), Hal Boedeker (Orlando Sentinel), Melissa Grego (Broadcasting and Cable), Richard Huff (New York Daily News), John Kubicek (BuddyTV), Lisa de Moraes (Washington Post), Kristin Dos Santos (E! OnlineCLICK HERE for expanded Emmy predix), Maggie Furlong (AOL Television), Michele Greppi (TV Week), Matt Mitovich (TVGuide.com), Ray Richmond (Hollywood Reporter), Matt Roush (TV Guide), Maureen Ryan (Chicago Tribune), Michael Starr (New York Post), David Zurawik (Baltimore Sun).

TEAM THE ENVELOPE: Chris "Boomer" Beachum (Gold Derby forums), Elena Howe (The Envelope), Joseph A. Kapsch (Latimes Entertainment), Robert Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net, Gold Derby forums), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby, TheEnvelope), Andrew Pickett (Gold Derby forums)

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Boston Legal"
"Damages" — Beachum
"Dexter" — Huff
"House"
"Lost" — Barnhart, Dos Santos, Greppi
"Mad Men" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Grego, Furlong, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, ZurawikHowe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" — Boedeker, Pickett
"Entourage"
"The Office"
"30 Rock" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Grego, Furlong, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil
"Two and a Half Men" — Greppi

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" — Huff
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" — Ausiello, O'Neil
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" — Dos Santos, Mitovich, Howe, Kapsch
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" — Berman, Furlong, Roush, Starr, Zurawik
Hugh Laurie, "House" — Barnhart, Bianco, Boedeker, Grego, Greppi, Richmond, Ryan
James Spader, "Boston Legal" —de Moraes, Kubicek, Beachum, Licuria, Pickett
(NOTE: Tom O'Neil switched his vote from Spader to Cranson on Sept. 19.)

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES
Glenn Close, "Damages" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Furlong, Grego, Greppi, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" — Dos Santos,
Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: Special Victims Unit"
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace"
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" — Huff, Kubicek, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Greppi, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Starr, Zurawik, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Steve Carell, "The Office" — Barnhart, Grego, Ryan, Beachum
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" — Furlong
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men"

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" — Ausiello, Bianco, Grego, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Kapsch, Pickett
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" — de Moraes, O'Neil
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" — Berman, Furlong, Greppi, Huff, Ryan, Roush, Starr, Zurawik, Howe, Licuria
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine" — Boedeker, Beachum
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" — Barnhart, Dos Santos

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES
Ted Danson, "Damages" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Furlong, Greppi, Richmond, Roush, Ryan
Michael Emerson, "Lost" — Dos Santos, Kubicek, Howe
Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" — Mitovich, Licuria
William Shatner, "Boston Legal" — Barnhart, Grego, Starr, Beachum, Kapsch, O'Neil, Pickett
John Slattery, "Mad Men" — Huff, Zurawik

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES
Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal" — Richmond, Licuria, Pickett
Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers and Sisters"
Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy" — Furlong, Kubicek, Starr
Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment" — Berman, Greppi, Huff, Ryan, Zurawik, Howe
Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Grego, Mitovich, Roush, Beachum, Kapsch, O'Neil

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES
Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men" — Greppi
Kevin Dillon, "Entourage" — Huff
Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother" — Bianco, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kubicek, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Howe
Jeremy Piven, "Entourage" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Boedeker, de Moraes, Grego, ZurawikBeachum, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Rainn Wilson, "The Office" — Berman, Mitovich, Richmond

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES
Kristin Chenoweth, "Pushing Daisies" — Bianco, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kubicek, Starr
Amy Poehler, "Saturday Night Live" — Ausiello, Barnhart, de Moraes, Huff, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Jean Smart, "Samantha Who? — Grego, Mitovich
Holland Taylor, "Two and a Half Men" — Greppi
Vanessa Williams, "Ugly Betty" — Berman, Boedeker, Kapsch

BEST REALITY HOST
Tom Bergeron, 'Dancing With The Stars' — Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Greppi, Roush, Zurawik
Heidi Klum, 'Project Runway' — Grego, Furlong, Ryan, Beachum
Howie Mandel, 'Deal Or No Deal' — Ausiello, Richmond
Jeff Probst, 'Survivor' — Huff, Mitovich, Licuria
Ryan Seacrest, 'American Idol' — Barnhart, Kubicek, Dos Santos, Starr, Howe, Kapsch, Pickett

BEST REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
"The Amazing Race" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Bianco, Berman, Boedeker, de Moraes, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Roush, Starr, Beachum, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
"American Idol" — Dos Santos, Grego, Zurawik, Howe, Kapsch
"Dancing with the Stars" — Richmond
"Project Runway" — Furlong, Greppi, Ryan
"Top Chef"

BEST VARIETY, MUSIC OR COMEDY SERIES
"The Colbert Report"
"The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Furlong, Grego, Greppi, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, O'Neil, Pickett
"Late Show With David Letterman" — Huff
"Real Time With Bill Maher"
"Saturday Night Live" — Licuria

BEST MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE
"Bernard and Doris" — Greppi
"Extras: The Extra Special Series Finale" — Ausiello, Berman, Furlong, Starr, Beachum, Kapsch
"The Memory Keeper's Daughter"
"A Raisin in the Sun" — Barnhart, Bianco, Dos Santos, Grego, Richmond, Ryan, Zurawik, Pickett
"Recount" — Boedeker, de Moraes, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Roush, Howe, Licura, O'Neil

Continue reading »

Emmy predix: William Shatner or Zeljko Ivanek to win supporting actor race?

September 4, 2008 | 12:53 pm

In Emmy's supporting-acting categories, judges view one sample episode of each contender that is edited down to eliminate scenes that do not feature the nominee. Our Emmy guru Chris "Boomer" Beachum has now viewed all submissions in the drama-actor contest and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) has seen nearly all, so they're ready to do their predix battle.

William_shatner_zeljko_ivanek_2

BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1. William Shatner, "Boston Legal" ("Mad About You")
2. Michael Emerson, "Lost" ("The Shape of Things to Come")
3. Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" ("I Hate These People")
4. Ted Danson, "Damages" ("Jesus, Mary and Joe Cocker")
5. John Slattery, "Mad Men" ("Long Weekend")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: This is a really, really tight race between William Shatner and Michael Emerson. Both have showcase episodes built around their characters and seize the opportunity with excellent performances. In addition to some nice action scenes, Emerson gets two powerful scenes in his episode (witnessing the murder of his daughter and then a revenge showdown with his nemesis at the end). Shatner is as ham-bone as ever in his episode, but he gets some terrific courtroom scenes that are both comedic and dramatic, plus this is probably his best submission yet in terms of screen time, plot and range.

I am giving the slight edge to Shatner since his episode seems to be a little more accessible to non-viewers of the show and has the viewer pulling for him at the end.

As for the others, Ivanek gave a career-enhancing performance over the course of the season but has zero range in this particular episode with his low-key, depressed character.  Danson was also incredibly villainous over the entire season but was barely even in this episode. Slattery brilliantly plays a real cad, but I just can't believe the voters will choose him after seeing his character ride a young woman like a horse.  His final scene in the hospital is a real winner, though.

BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX
1. Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" ("I Hate These People")
2. Michael Emerson, "Lost" ("The Shape of Things to Come")
3. Ted Danson, "Damages" ("Jesus, Mary and Joe Cocker")
4. William Shatner, "Boston Legal" ("Mad About You")
5. John Slattery, "Mad Men" ("Long Weekend")

 

ROB'S COMMENTARY: I don't buy that William Shatner is the front-runner in this category. I think that maybe Denny Crane's time in the Emmy spotlight might be over.

Continue reading »

Seven Emmy geniuses predict Thursday's award nominations

July 14, 2008 |  3:24 pm

Somehow I've managed to coax six suckers brilliant kudos seers to join me in predicting the Emmy nominations that will be announced this Thursday morning: Michael Ausiello (EW.com), Matt Webb Mitovich (TVGuide.com), Marc Berman (MediaWeek), Ray Richmond (Hollywood Reporter) and our two resident Emmy gurus — our forums moderators Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) and Chris "Boomer" Beachum. To see how we fared predicting the Emmy top 10 lists, CLICK HERE! Below: how we size up the races for best drama and comedy series. To see our predix for best lead actor and actress, CLICK HERE!

Drama_series_1

Comedy_series

KEEP READING - CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR PREDIX FOR BEST ACTOR AND ACTRESS IN DRAMA AND COMEDY SERIES!

Continue reading »

And the Emmy nominees for best supporting drama actor will be: William Shatner, Ted Danson, Blair Underwood, Michael Emerson and . . . ?

July 12, 2008 |  2:12 pm

Below is the breakdown of the Emmy slugfest for best supporting drama actor, according to our forum moderators and special Emmy seers Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net — read Hollywood Reporter's profile of Rob).

William_shatner_boston_legal_michae

Remember: Rob and Boomer mirror the actual voting process when making their predix. First, they calculate the order of the top 11 semifinalists as determined by the popular vote by the TV academy's actors' branch. Then they predict how the panel judges scored the sample episode entries. They combine these two results on a 50-50 basis, just like the accountants do, to determine the final ranking of the nominees.

For example, Rob thinks Ted Danson will come in first in the popular vote and fourth in the scores judging sample episode submissions. Add those numbers together: five. That's excellent. Lowest scores rank highest.

How Rob ranks the popular vote outcome — 1.) Ted Danson  2.) William Shatner  3.) Michael Emerson 4.) John Slattery 5.) Blair Underwood 6.) Zeljko Ivanek 7.) Naveen Andrews 8.) Christian Clemenson 9.) T.R. Knight 10.) Jake Weber 11.) Bruce Dern

Here's how Boomer thinks the pop vote went down — 1.) Ted Danson 2.) William Shatner 3.) T.R. Knight 4.) Michael Emerson 5.) John Slattery  6.) Blair Underwood 7.) Naveen Andrews 8.) Zeljko Ivanek 9.) Christian Clemenson 10.) Bruce Dern 11.) Jake Weber

My opinion:  Rob and Boomer both rank Emerson too high. Rob ranks Knight too low.

How Rob thinks the judges ranked episode entries — 1.) Blair Underwood 2.) Michael Emerson 3.) Zeljko Ivanek 4.) Ted Danson 5.) John Slattery 6.) William Shatner 7.) Naveen Andrews 8.) Christian Clemenson 9.) Jake Weber 10.) T.R. Knight 11.) Bruce Dern

Here's how Boomer ranks the judges' views of the episodes — 1.) Michael Emerson 2.) Blair Underwood 3.) Ted Danson 4.) Zeljko Ivanek 5.) John Slattery 6.) Christian Clemenson 7.) Naveen Andrews 8.) William Shatner 9.) Jake Weber 10.) Knight 11.) Bruce Dern

My opinion:  Rob and Boomer rank Shatner's eppy too low.

Please note: We list the episode titles viewed by judges.

BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX
(Top 5 = nominees)
1.) Ted Danson, "Damages" ("Jesus, Mary & Joe Cocker") — 5 points
1.) Michael Emerson, "Lost" ("The Shape of Things to Come") — 5 points
3.)  Blair Underwood, "In Treatment" ("Alex: Week 6") — 6 points
4.)  William Shatner, "Boston Legal" ("Mad About You") — 8 points
5.)  John Slattery, "Mad Men" ("Long Weekend") — 9 points
5.)  Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" ("I Hate These People") — 9 points
7.)  Naveen Andrews, "Lost" ("The Economist") — 14 points
8.)  Christian Clemenson, "Boston Legal" ("Roe vs. Wade, The Musical") — 16 points
=9.) T.R. Knight, "Grey's Anatomy" ("Freedom") — 19 points
=9.) Jake Weber, "Medium" ("Wicked Game, Part 1") — 19 points
11.)  Bruce Dern, "Big Love" ("Good Guys & Bad Guys") — 22 points

BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Top 5 = nominees)
1.)  Ted Danson, "Damages" ("Jesus, Mary & Joe Cocker") — 4 points
2.)  Michael Emerson, "Lost" ("The Shape of Things to Come") — 5 points
3.)  Blair Underwood, "In Treatment" ("Alex: Week 6") — 8 points
4.)  William Shatner, "Boston Legal" ("Mad About You") — 10 points
5.)  John Slattery, "Mad Men" ("Long Weekend") — 10 points
6.)  Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" ("I Hate These People") — 12 points
7.)  T.R. Knight, "Grey's Anatomy" ("Freedom") — 13 points
8.)  Naveen Andrews, "Lost" ("The Economist") — 14 points
9.)  Christian Clemenson, "Boston Legal" ("Roe vs. Wade, The Musical") — 15 points
10.)  Jake Weber, "Medium" ("Wicked Game, Part 1") — 19 points
11.)  Bruce Dern, "Big Love" ("Good Guys & Bad Guys") — 21 points

Rob's commentary: I am usually loath to "predict" 6 nominees (even though many a time we end up with 6 nominees), but by my scoring, I came up with a tie for fifth place, and this category often sees ties, so who knows. Danson will get in on the strength of a strong popular vote. Although his performance in his chosen episode is quite good, it will not have blown the socks off the panel voters, so stronger episode submissions like those of Underwood, Emerson and Ivanek will see them through. Slattery is a probable contender, as is the perennial favorite Shatner. Perhaps only Naveen Andrews might sneak in if the panel voters loved his episode more than I am giving them credit for above.

(Photos: ABC, FX, HBO, AMC)

 


Connect

Advertisement

In Case You Missed It...

Stay Connected:


About the Blogger


Pop & Hiss



Categories


Archives
 



In Case You Missed It...